Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 19, 2022 12:56:58 GMT -6
Happy Father's Day to all the dads in our crew!
We are long past time for a new thread.... so this felt like a good day. The upper level pattern for the new week definitely points to a return of the big time heat... but the duration remains in question...especially for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor. The GEFS and EPS are both showing similar mid/upper level ridge positions... although the GEFS mean 500mb heights are lower along the I-70 cooridor. Both ensembles show a region of slightly enhanced mid-level flow from KS into the MO/IA state line region which looks to be strong enough to support nocturnal convection and potential MCS development. The main flow is definitely much further to the north... but the existence of this weaker southern band of winds will be key to providing small pockets of energy that may be enough to tip the scales towards MCS events along the "ring of fire" The degree to which these clusters can build south into the ridge is unclear. But for now... areas along and north of I-70 are far more likely to see at least some activity... while points south will bake. Even if the main MCS flow stays just to our north, I have to imagine a fair amount of cirrus blow-off which may mitigate the extremeness of the temperatures a bit. All this being said, I sure wouldn't rely on the chance for storms for water and if your yard, garden etc. is showing signs of drying out... I would get the water going and take your chances with the late week rain.
Happy Father's Day to all Fathers. Absolutely spectacular weekend at Clearwater Lake. Very warm setting up Friday evening but a quick run around on jetski's solved that issue. Saturday was one of the best days ever there. Low wind, low to medium humidity and comfy temps. Sunday morning had a low of 62 on car thermo but sure felt cooler during morning walk and bike run. Sunday was a bit breezy but amazing temps considering what we had during last week.
Definitely less of a pronounced thermal ridge this time around. But part of that is due to surface/low-level ridging across the Gulf States and the Arklatex, which may block a lot of the deeper moisture advection or at least divert it towards the Plains. Definitely not a pattern I would hang my hat on for widespread rainfall...a lot of models show precip falling apart as it approaches with each of these disturbances/cold fronts. But maybe we'll get lucky. Wednesday seems to have some potential...and possibly Thursday if that complex survives longer across MO than what models show.
This bro lives a stones throw NNW of Brighton, IL.
"The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it." ~Patrick Young
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
gonefishin - WashMO: We have Grandparents Day/Open House at school on Sunday. Getting nervous about the idea of our grandparents walking between church and school with icy conditions. Glad it’s not my call. Hoping the ice holds off.
Jan 26, 2023 9:16:44 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: The RAP has seen the light! 21Z run is back on course for a major winter storm for almost the entire area!
Jan 23, 2023 16:20:25 GMT -6
ajd446: Is it me or does it appear the 21z sref had a decent shift NW.
Jan 22, 2023 18:29:06 GMT -6
bfsmith81: Christmas Edition thread seems to be broken? Last page of the thread won't load now, with an HTTP 410 error.
Jan 15, 2023 12:29:29 GMT -6
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6