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Post by cozpregon on Jun 24, 2022 21:21:55 GMT -6
Think could see some low end severe
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 24, 2022 22:25:33 GMT -6
Looking promising   |
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Post by jeepers on Jun 24, 2022 22:32:42 GMT -6
Bring it.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 25, 2022 5:51:00 GMT -6
I don't care if it's anything exciting at this point. I just want a ½“ of rain.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 25, 2022 10:03:56 GMT -6
Slight risk extended into parts of the metro for wind tonight
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2022 11:11:01 GMT -6
Slight risk extended into parts of the metro for wind tonight Looks like a high CAPE/low shear setup with potential for strong wet downburst gusts. Bring on the rain! |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 25, 2022 11:28:02 GMT -6
PWs well over 2" would support those wet downbursts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2022 11:42:46 GMT -6
PWs well over 2" would support those wet downbursts. Upstream DCAPE 1200+ too...some 1500+ according to the mesoanalysis |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2022 11:44:50 GMT -6
Models have trended towards better FROPA timing, with most CAMs bringing a QLCS through between 8-12pm. Earlier in the week the front was modeled to come through in the early morning hours after instability had waned.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 25, 2022 12:57:40 GMT -6
I was just about to post that BRTN...the DCAPE values are up in the 1000-1400 range along I-70. Radar may look a lot like last Friday...except more of a north to south moving band as storms try and back-build into the CAPE plume to the southwest. So some backbuilding of storms is possible along the front from northeast to southwest.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 25, 2022 12:58:45 GMT -6
PWs well over 2" would support those wet downbursts. Some people may get a solid punch of rain... other communities may miss out all together! There are likely to be some that feel left out I think. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 25, 2022 13:17:24 GMT -6
PWs well over 2" would support those wet downbursts. Some people may get a solid punch of rain... other communities may miss out all together! There are likely to be some that feel left out I think. This seems to be a recurring setup the last 6 weeks or so. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2022 14:12:34 GMT -6
I was just about to post that BRTN...the DCAPE values are up in the 1000-1400 range along I-70. Radar may look a lot like last Friday...except more of a north to south moving band as storms try and back-build into the CAPE plume to the southwest. So some backbuilding of storms is possible along the front from northeast to southwest. I'm hoping that backbuilding potential will slow the progress of the boundary a bit and keep the deeper convection and trailing stratoform around longer...seems like that's what the juicy models like the HREF were trying to do with 1"+ QPF near/N of I-70 and dare I say...IMBY Good luck, gentlemen(and ladies)! Let's roll the dice  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 25, 2022 14:15:54 GMT -6
18z NAM shows that backbuilding nicely. NE to SW developing complexes seem to notoriously be wind producers.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 25, 2022 15:43:41 GMT -6
PWs well over 2" would support those wet downbursts. Some people may get a solid punch of rain... other communities may miss out all together! There are likely to be some that feel left out I think. After the 2.5-3" rain here last Friday morning it is still very dry here 7 miles west of De Soto. Have been watering the garden in morning/evening times and started over with the tomatoes last night after pruning them. Actually, the wife pruned and I weeded and watered. I am hoping for a 'decent' rain here. I certainly do not want to be 'your example' of a community missed. On a side note, the dry grass makes a good RC racetrack for my 3.5 year old grandson and myself.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 25, 2022 15:46:07 GMT -6
Good luck, gentlemen(and ladies)! Let's roll the dice  |
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Post by amstilost on Jun 25, 2022 16:32:57 GMT -6
Thought it would be cool enough to come out and weed some more and water but it's still a little too warm and I noticed some cumulus clouds. I don't know if they would fall under the definition of 'agitated cumulus' or just cumulus growing so I took a picture overlooking the garden to the South Southeast and went to load it into the forum but apparently I don't have imgur on my phone and I don't have enough free space to download the imgur app. I will try and post it later when I get in the house but it's a good picture of a portion of the garden anyway and now it looks like that cumulus cloud seems to be kind of shrinking as it's heading east southeast.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 25, 2022 17:02:42 GMT -6
How disheartening, now I hardly see a cloud in the sky. Must be some dry air just east of me and in Illinois because all that stuff gone. Poof. I have 1/4 left of the perimeter of the 18 inch line just outside the electric fence that I've tilled three times this year that I'm just hand cultivating some of the leftover clumps of grass now. One 60 ft quarter left to do.👍👍 when I take a break and come sit on the four-wheeler that's in the shade and that little breeze (5mph) that's blowing it really feels pretty darn good outside in the shade. 🥵🥵🔥🔥
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 25, 2022 19:50:53 GMT -6
Doesn't look like backsliding is happening?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 25, 2022 19:51:49 GMT -6
C'mon storms! Hang together!! Quit falling apart!!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2022 20:19:09 GMT -6
Kind of looking like the NAMs were too aggressive with the southward propagation of the central IL storms...the HRRR moved them mostly off to the east with scattered development further south across the region.
Still time for further development and upscale growth along/ahead of the boundary though.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 25, 2022 20:19:37 GMT -6
Latest models are pretty dry. Hires NAM is the best for st louis on east se.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 25, 2022 20:32:14 GMT -6
The HRRR and NAM are severely under forecasting the convection across central IL right now. On the other hand the RAP looks to aggressive with convection. The 3km NAM might be the best to go off right now.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 25, 2022 20:34:47 GMT -6
Getting thunder and some sprinkles of rain.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 25, 2022 20:44:04 GMT -6
I will take what the RAP is drinking lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2022 20:44:38 GMT -6
It's pretty obvious that the bulk of the large scale ascent is across N/Central IL leaving us with crumbs along the boundary. Not looking good for widespread, deep convection in and around the metro. This is what I had envisioned happening days ago before these models got my hopes up. There's just hardly any support upstairs this far south...and mid-level temps are running on the warm side which doesn't help.
Hope I can get under one of these cells...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2022 21:07:18 GMT -6
Heavy downpour and gusty winds.
Hopefully there's more development behind this...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 25, 2022 21:08:29 GMT -6
South of I-70 looks like a bust as usual. Technically that's where the drought is officially, so it makes sense.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 25, 2022 21:09:39 GMT -6
South of I-70 looks like a bust as usual. Technically that's where the drought is officially, so it makes sense. It's not too bad. Sitting on the patio at Dorchester watching the lightning |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 25, 2022 21:09:56 GMT -6
Also 02Z RAP is back down to Earth from it's past several runs with mostly dry area, save for west of metro St. Louis and just north where the storms are/have been so far.
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