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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 22, 2022 10:32:23 GMT -6
Not great   |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 22, 2022 11:22:17 GMT -6
Not great Looks like a Snowfall map lol |
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Post by REB on Jun 22, 2022 12:22:53 GMT -6
We need another T shirt
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 22, 2022 12:35:57 GMT -6
If we're not in a drought already, we will be soon enough. It's very, very dry here...the ground is dusty and hard. We've only had a few tenths in the past month or so and it looks like we'll be lucky to get that in the next couple weeks...if any. Not good. The lack of a Bermuda ridge this year is greatly impacting our precipitation.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 22, 2022 17:51:05 GMT -6
The EPS (pictured below) and GEFS do look wetter the first week of July. I just hope this isn’t like winter where the closer we get to an event the less impressive it looks.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 22, 2022 22:04:26 GMT -6
NAM looks interesting Saturday night/early Sunday- something to watch
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jun 23, 2022 6:59:35 GMT -6
Heading to USVI Saturday and staying through Thursday. Any potential tropical development on the horizon?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 23, 2022 7:46:40 GMT -6
NAM looks interesting Saturday night/early Sunday- something to watch Unfortunately, it's basically on it's own. The 00z EC run shows much of the area getting almost no measureable precip over the next 10 days. The GFS is a bit wetter, but not by much. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 23, 2022 11:14:49 GMT -6
Heading to USVI Saturday and staying through Thursday. Any potential tropical development on the horizon? There is a wave off the coast of Africa that you will need monitor. Models have this wave entering the Caribbean around Wed/Thur with varying degrees of maturity and location spread. NHC currently puts 5-day odds of tropical development at 20%. What island(s) are you going to? We stayed on St. John many years ago, it was great! But a feeder band of developing major hurricane Omar knocked out power to our vacation rental on the last day. |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jun 23, 2022 11:42:10 GMT -6
Heading to USVI Saturday and staying through Thursday. Any potential tropical development on the horizon? There is a wave off the coast of Africa that you will need monitor. Models have this wave entering the Caribbean around Wed/Thur with varying degrees of maturity and location spread. NHC currently puts 5-day odds of tropical development at 20%. What island(s) are you going to? We stayed on St. John many years ago, it was great! But a feeder band of developing major hurricane Omar knocked out power to our vacation rental on the last day. Thanks for the information! We are staying on St. John and are very, very excited! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 23, 2022 15:00:42 GMT -6
Looks drier then a bone through September, and at least the next 6 weeks with pretty strong signals. Sheesh...
Also most of the area is now officially D0 (Abnormally Dry), some D1s should show up in the metro and into southern Missouri next week or 2. Then it becomes how intense does it get. Could be a D3'er the way things are trending.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 23, 2022 15:01:37 GMT -6
bones are wet
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 23, 2022 15:07:02 GMT -6
Still seeing signals for at least 2 105+ days with HIs 120 in June.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 23, 2022 16:29:34 GMT -6
At least with drier conditions. The humidity won't be as intense.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 23, 2022 16:46:19 GMT -6
Models look a bit more encouraging for precip chances Sat/Sun and again towards the 1st of the month...hopefully that trend continues. There should be quite a bit of instability Saturday with the hot and humid airmass in place for the front to work with...but upper forcing looks pretty meager. Would expect a lot of "have nots" with that FROPA. The stalled boundary towards next weekend looks potentially active though...for now!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 23, 2022 17:30:57 GMT -6
Ah, the blow off clouds of yet another MCS that bit the dust trying to get here, granted it was never really expected to get here in the 1st place.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 23, 2022 17:32:20 GMT -6
Still seeing signals for at least 2 105+ days with HIs 120 in June. And for once I'm not. Just a week to go and nothing in the models right now indicates that, now July... We'll have to see. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 23, 2022 17:34:28 GMT -6
On a funny note, amazing how much 'COVID'/Lockdown hair that guys have been growing since this whole pandemic thing started was magically cut or even shaved since last week's heat spell. Still some die-hards out there like me that keep growing longer, but there was a bunch that gave up on the long hair... At least till next Fall or Winter.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 23, 2022 17:36:21 GMT -6
jesus
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 23, 2022 20:41:48 GMT -6
Nam 3 still has me keeping some interest Saturday night/early Sunday
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 23, 2022 21:39:41 GMT -6
Nam 3 still has me keeping some interest Saturday night/early Sunday Maybe another high CAPE/low shear setup? Would be nice to get in on a slow moving heavy storm... |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 23, 2022 23:45:20 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 24, 2022 4:51:12 GMT -6
Couldn't hardly see any planets this morning. To many thin clouds. 😭
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 24, 2022 12:14:04 GMT -6
Sunday morning's rain chances seem to be improving. The recently stingy nam has a good cluster moving through early morn.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 24, 2022 12:47:44 GMT -6
Models have been pretty consistent with some "sunrise surprise" showers or storms tomorrow AM along the river aided by mid-level WAA. And they seem to be increasing storm chances along the front tomorrow evening and overnight. Hopefully we can get some soaking rain across the area. The first week of July still looks fairly active, with a pretty classic looking ring of fire setup as complexes traverse the wavy boundary. Fingers crossed that we see some beneficial rainfall over the next 10-15 days. The crops are starting to show signs of heat stress around here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 24, 2022 12:52:05 GMT -6
Seems like there may be a chance for light showers this afternoon and early evening across the N half of the area with the stratoform moving in from the west...but it's fighting dry and stable air. Definitely a better chance west of the river valley...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 24, 2022 13:19:13 GMT -6
HREF actually looks pretty juicy tomorrow night/Sunday morning  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 24, 2022 15:16:04 GMT -6
Welp, there goes that surprise rain chance today...
Completely dried up. Only had a few drops here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 24, 2022 18:51:26 GMT -6
Sure hope the HREF is onto something...
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 24, 2022 21:17:33 GMT -6
Tomorrow night is looking good Billy Ray
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