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Post by yypc on Jul 24, 2022 17:05:19 GMT -6
So, Aug 2012 had 3 days of 100+ July had 15 June had 3 21 I think the most impressive stat from 2012 is the 10 day consecutive stretch of 100*+ temps with 7 of those being 105* or higher. That's absolutely remarkable...like a Texas heatwave. July 2012 also had an average high temp of 98.6 average low of 77.5 with 722 (!) cooling degree days (average being 476). July 2022 is averaging 94.1 high 75.1 low which will both come way down next week, so nowhere near 2012. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 24, 2022 17:12:13 GMT -6
Definitely a long-range signal for the heat to return first week of August as the ridge rears it's ugly head again. Let's enjoy the coming week... Yeah, I noticed that too on the EPS and GEFS. We might not be done with the 100+ days. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 24, 2022 17:20:45 GMT -6
2017 was a rough summer too. July had 7 100+ days that year with a max of 108.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 24, 2022 17:27:39 GMT -6
I believe 103F is the high today. We outperformed the NBM by 4F. I realize we don't have a large sample to draw from and models are constantly changing but it seems like there is common theme in that models tend to underestimate our highs during droughts. Do you guys remember how bad modeled 2m T was in 2012?
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 24, 2022 17:45:19 GMT -6
I interned with Chris in the summer of 2012. I specifically remember him looking at 500 mb anomalies and saying "Holy crap, that's gunna be a lot of heat"
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 24, 2022 17:50:16 GMT -6
Nooooo there goes our rain!!! It is completely diminishing...
Ugh!!!!! 😵💫
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Post by yypc on Jul 24, 2022 17:53:10 GMT -6
Looking back at 1936, July of 2012 was hotter than July of 36 by a little bit. But what really stands out about 1936 is a string of 17 days in late August where the high was 99+ with almost all of those in the 100s. Brutal.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 24, 2022 17:53:23 GMT -6
Nooooo there goes our rain!!! It is completely diminishing... Ugh!!!!! 😵💫 The split is showing it's hand already! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 24, 2022 17:57:25 GMT -6
Definitely a long-range signal for the heat to return first week of August as the ridge rears it's ugly head again. Let's enjoy the coming week... Yeah, I noticed that too on the EPS and GEFS. We might not be done with the 100+ days. I'd say you can't rule out triple digits till at least the Autumn Equinox, or the last 10 days of September. After then it gets very difficult to get temps that high even under very favorable conditions as sun angle plunges and days get much shorter. So still almost 55-60 days to go before 100+ can be ruled out IMO. It's the same for any Summer. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 24, 2022 18:12:52 GMT -6
Statistically speaking, 100*+ is very rare after the 15th of September...there's only been one instance during the entire record keeping era for KSTL.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 24, 2022 18:48:52 GMT -6
I’ve always used Sept 15th as the “unofficial” beginning of fall. Even if it gets hot after then it usually cools off well at night.
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 24, 2022 19:25:00 GMT -6
It’ll be lovely in Sept in Michigan camping! Esp no 100s!
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Post by fojginmo on Jul 24, 2022 19:37:53 GMT -6
I was pregnant & taking summer classes at MAC (Mineral Area College). The walk to the car after classes was brutal. The asphalt was nearly melting I swear. I know one day the high was 108! |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 24, 2022 20:42:03 GMT -6
another impressive stat for 2012 besides the fact that it got to 108 (i think twice?), the 10 consecutive days of 100+ and the hot August was the fact that out of the top 10 highest daily averages, 3 of them occurred in 2012. 97, 96, 95 on the 25th, 24th, 7th respectively. fireworks shows cancelled that year. 2012 definitely figures into the records pretty prominently. If you're looking for relief, KEZK 102.5 is playing Christmas music.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 24, 2022 21:30:03 GMT -6
What time was the International Space Station fly over tonight?
I seen something fly over close to 9pm. But it looked really long and lit up. It was pretty far in the distance by the time I seen it. But figured that's what it was.
Or was it....? Lol
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Post by amstilost on Jul 24, 2022 21:46:59 GMT -6
A decent shower here. Looking at radar, NOW the rain drops southeast when I would like to see it go due east. We put off watering the last few days because of what looked to be favorable for decent rain. Hope it still materializes this week.
Edit: Nice to see decent chances of rain through next Sunday on NWS forecast.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 25, 2022 1:30:38 GMT -6
I wish that rain line was over us rather than going by from the west to the south. But I can't complain. They need the rain desperately in that area, too.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 25, 2022 7:24:58 GMT -6
12 Z Hrrr is favoring the 70 corridor tonight at this moment.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 25, 2022 7:34:56 GMT -6
The FFW looks to be in the area it should be this year. I have very light rain and I am riding the razor thin northern cut off of the heavy rain just south. Total rainfall shows > 0.0 for me and the .3-.5" is 15 miles or so south. I like my chances. Glass half full.
That is a large area of much needed rain from SE MO back to KS/NE.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 25, 2022 7:46:01 GMT -6
Best rain in months at KFAM
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 25, 2022 8:23:49 GMT -6
12 Z Hrrr is favoring the 70 corridor tonight at this moment. I hope that holds up. NE MO and W/Central IL has been hogging all the rain this summer! |
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Post by amstilost on Jul 25, 2022 8:46:16 GMT -6
Best rain in months at KFAM Yep, you were left out of a few of our heavy rain events in early July. The east/west line of rain on radar has to be one of the straightest 'natural' lines on radar I think I have ever seen. It is just to my south and moving due east.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 25, 2022 9:07:35 GMT -6
Rain to south and west all night and morning. Now it's all gathering up north. Hilarious.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 25, 2022 9:16:45 GMT -6
NAMs don't have a very good handle on the current precip trends across MO...have to wonder if that heavy rainfall axis ends up a bit further south than what's modeled. The surface boundary is down around the bootheel this morning...would think that would favor the 70 corridor later tonight as the LLJ ramps up.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 25, 2022 9:37:07 GMT -6
Cells lined up from New Haven to Jeff City. Not very heavy but better than nothing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 25, 2022 9:46:16 GMT -6
Near 100° yesterday and in the 70s with drizzle falling today. I’ll take it.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 25, 2022 10:46:48 GMT -6
Cells lined up from New Haven to Jeff City. Not very heavy but better than nothing. Ya it looked better an hr ago. Now it's getting more spotty. Ugh! |
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Post by REB on Jul 25, 2022 12:06:43 GMT -6
Love the lower temps. Sure wish we could get some of the rain.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 25, 2022 12:10:20 GMT -6
Lawn's mowed. Either the kiss of death for our rain chances or the kick that's needed to get them actually going...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 25, 2022 13:12:37 GMT -6
Good agreement with the 12z globals and latest CAMs that the axis of heavy rainfall will setup along/N of 70 tonight with several inches possible where training occurs.
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