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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 25, 2022 13:29:13 GMT -6
If models are right, not only do I get screwed last night...but tonight and the rest of the week too lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 25, 2022 13:55:06 GMT -6
If models are right, not only do I get screwed last night...but tonight and the rest of the week too lol. You have a reputation with mother nature. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 25, 2022 14:14:46 GMT -6
18Z NAM coming in a hair farther south, so there's that...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 25, 2022 15:04:29 GMT -6
The axis of the CAPE gradient would argue for a bit further south placement of the heavy rainfall potential. It's currently about 75mi S of the MO river.
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Post by ElburnDave on Jul 25, 2022 15:13:13 GMT -6
I interned with Chris in the summer of 2012. I specifically remember him looking at 500 mb anomalies and saying "Holy crap, that's gunna be a lot of heat" Hard to believe that has been 10 years already! Been visiting your fair state the last two weeks, enjoying the cool temps and monsoon rains. Rafted the Colorado out of Kremmling this AM. Dread returning to IL this weekend. 9 more years.... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 25, 2022 15:51:11 GMT -6
Debating if I need to water the plants tonight or not. HRRRrrrr has been trending south the last few runs so think I’ll hold off.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 25, 2022 15:58:19 GMT -6
We need rain... but not this much!  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 25, 2022 15:59:16 GMT -6
I interned with Chris in the summer of 2012. I specifically remember him looking at 500 mb anomalies and saying "Holy crap, that's gunna be a lot of heat" Hard to believe that has been 10 years already! Been visiting your fair state the last two weeks, enjoying the cool temps and monsoon rains. Rafted the Colorado out of Kremmling this AM. Dread returning to IL this weekend. 9 more years.... That was not a very exciting stretch of weather... all heat all the time. Glad you learned SOMETHING at least lol. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 25, 2022 16:08:03 GMT -6
First day back from vacation and as I look at the details of the set-up for tonight I do have concerns for flash flooding tonight.
Starting at the top... the departing 300mb jet streak will leave the I-70 corridor in a very favorable RRQ (right entrance region) for large scale lift.
Below that at 850mb... a stout LLJ is impinging on the tight thermal gradient in the low/mid-levels with a significant moisture flux into the frontal boundary.
Training of storms is likely in this pattern with a slow settling to the south of the boundary... but with PWs between 2.0 and 2.5 I would not at all be surprised to see a few 6" totals along the I-70 corridor by midday. I think the HRRR is on the right track.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 25, 2022 16:13:28 GMT -6
holy cow Chris. If we get close to 6 inches of rain, theres going to be a mess of flooding. I guess they haven't bought into that, as the flood watch is just to our north...or will that be extended southward.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 25, 2022 16:35:35 GMT -6
holy cow Chris. If we get close to 6 inches of rain, theres going to be a mess of flooding. I guess they haven't bought into that, as the flood watch is just to our north...or will that be extended southward. In discussions with them about that as we speak. No immediate changes, but I think there is a good chance the watch will be expanded south later this evening. Basically just bouncing thoughts off some of my friends over there. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 25, 2022 16:42:26 GMT -6
I personally think FFW should be extended to include at least another tier of counties southward, given that ppl have let their guard down, this could be an ugly surprise overnight. Even if it doesn't flood, we are in for significant rain, and it's the kind of rain that's just going to run off the dry soil..
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 25, 2022 17:57:02 GMT -6
Meanwhile the gfs in early august depicts 8 consecutive days of 100 or higher, with temps hitting 108....all the way to the end of the run.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 25, 2022 18:07:03 GMT -6
the watch was expanded south to warren and stl counties
and lol at gfs temps long range. a week or 2 ago it was showing like 4 days in a row of temps 110-115 here lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 25, 2022 18:08:10 GMT -6
Meanwhile the gfs in early august depicts 8 consecutive days of 100 or higher, with temps hitting 108....all the way to the end of the run. "Booooo!" *throwing tomatoes |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 25, 2022 18:09:39 GMT -6
welp snowman beat me to it...yep, now I agree with the placement of the watch. Seems like this is happening so quickly. Going to be a long night. Glad the gfs as pulled back on 110-115 a bit. I hope it keeps pulling back.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 25, 2022 18:56:30 GMT -6
HRRR is putting down 1 to 2 inches along the 70 corridor from Warrenton to St. Charles. Chris is it backing off the insane rain totals? Or I could be reading it wrong. We could use a prolonged 1 to 2, but with the pwats so high, I'm guessing the HRRR estimate is going to be lower than reality.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 25, 2022 19:20:49 GMT -6
Sounding off the NAM3 overnight is saturated to the trop with some elevated CAPE and big PWs.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 25, 2022 19:23:12 GMT -6
Have to wonder if the NAMs hold tight with the set up tomorrow evening... it may be overdoing the Tds. Certainly interesting  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 25, 2022 19:33:07 GMT -6
I'm NOT going to worry about the alignment and location of model QPF at this point. There will be hour by hour shifts. It's not about model QPF placement at this time as much as I am the Max values. The alignment of the 300 millibar jet and the 850 flow into into the low level temperature gradient... all point to the I 70/I 64 corridors.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 25, 2022 19:40:37 GMT -6
gotcha thanks for the explanation
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Post by REB on Jul 25, 2022 19:54:05 GMT -6
Light rain has begun.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 25, 2022 19:58:00 GMT -6
Have to wonder if the NAMs hold tight with the set up tomorrow evening... it may be overdoing the Tds. Certainly interesting ![]() Well that is interesting. I will want to get through tonight first. lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 25, 2022 20:16:34 GMT -6
Radar really lighting up out towards COU...Metro looks square in the crosshairs currently.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 25, 2022 20:30:29 GMT -6
Would anyone have any interest creating a discord for the corner? More instantaneous chat and ability to do voice/video calls with screen sharing would be nice, especially for big winter storms and severe weather events. Just thought I’d throw the idea out there to gauge interest.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jul 25, 2022 21:12:19 GMT -6
I just wish it would all say one more county south. The power of the Snowman will surely keep it away.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 25, 2022 21:38:44 GMT -6
Would anyone have any interest creating a discord for the corner? More instantaneous chat and ability to do voice/video calls with screen sharing would be nice, especially for big winter storms and severe weather events. Just thought I’d throw the idea out there to gauge interest. Absolutely. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 25, 2022 21:45:50 GMT -6
Radar looks great for me right now!! Hope it holds
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 25, 2022 22:08:33 GMT -6
BRTN I do believe you are going to get your rain this go round.
Don’t have measurements, but we’ve had a couple of good soakers down this way the last couple of days. I think the grass grew about 3 inches today.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 25, 2022 23:04:52 GMT -6
Heavy rain, lightning and thunder here!!
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