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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 2, 2022 9:09:04 GMT -6
SPC did pop areas from downtown on east into a Marginal Risk of storms today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 2, 2022 9:24:58 GMT -6
Is there any ground truth to the 12"+ amounts SE of Effingham? Would think so with the duration. Unreal FF event out there...
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dadof6
Weather Weenie
Posts: 58 
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Post by dadof6 on Aug 2, 2022 9:31:33 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 2, 2022 10:44:42 GMT -6
There may have been some hail contamination with some of that... but the radar eatimates have been pretty accurate in recent storms so I have to believe it's not too far off the mark.
Today has me uneasy. The presence of now several north to south outflow boundaries which have penetrates further west than expected 24 hours ago... are now running along and just west of the Mississippi River with a huge resevoir of CAPE/theta-e rich air to the west. CINH has... so far...held new development in check. However, assuming that will largley be wiped away eventually... or at least weaken enough to allow for some development. It is somewhat of a powderkeg. If the match doesn't light... all is well. But if we light the fuse things could go up quickly. Downburst winds and flash flooding are the biggest concerns I have... unfortunately that very conditional risk may be highest over the metro.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 2, 2022 11:21:37 GMT -6
Sitting outside at home in the O'Fallon IL area and the skies are certainly very threatening looking right now, with nothing close on radar. Nice reprieve from the heat.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 2, 2022 11:38:24 GMT -6
Slight Risk added to our northern counties for tomorrow afternoon and evening with marginal risk for the remainder of the area per the latest Day 2 outlook.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 2, 2022 12:03:10 GMT -6
Just had a 25-30 mph wind gust (outflow?) Come through here
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 2, 2022 13:18:53 GMT -6
Less concerned now than an hour ago as the outflow continues to surge west with cap holding over metro STL.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 2, 2022 14:18:54 GMT -6
Thank goodness the outflow kept going. Nearly stationary storms out west were my fear for here earlier.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 2, 2022 14:34:27 GMT -6
Just sitting between I-44 and Jeff City. Severe warned. Was that area still in need of rain because they're sure getting it. Have to see if flood watches pop up if the storms continue.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 3, 2022 10:02:05 GMT -6
Looking like an active night around here. SPC has a slight risk out and the NWS is calling for possible flash flooding and up to 5” of rain along and south of 70.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 3, 2022 10:34:59 GMT -6
Last time I saw a sounding like this... we were getting 3+"/hour around here  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2022 11:03:47 GMT -6
Plenty of juice for this evening's storms with a dewpoint near 80* currently.
That's a water loaded sounding if I've ever seen one...looks similar to tropical remnant setups with a high freezing and equilibrium level.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 3, 2022 11:41:58 GMT -6
I can barely ready those charts and that looks saturated. Also, storm slinky made me giggle.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 3, 2022 11:54:42 GMT -6
Sure does look moist tonight, no doubt.
Hopefully we don't have any major training and things move along pretty quickly. I think that will be the mode tonight, but it won't take a lot at those rates to cause some FF.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2022 12:05:50 GMT -6
Sure does look moist tonight, no doubt. Hopefully we don't have any major training and things move along pretty quickly. I think that will be the mode tonight, but it won't take a lot at those rates to cause some FF. Should be a pretty steady southward trajectory with these storms compared to the front-runner training storms last week. But if an area gets hit multiple times, precip rates could cause issues. |
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 3, 2022 12:08:02 GMT -6
Yep... completely different setup.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 3, 2022 12:22:40 GMT -6
Overlapping clusters hitting the same or similar areas is a threat. Some models were showing 2 to 3 waves of heavier storms with some brief dry time inbetween. Also some straight line winds and downburst potential along with pea to dime sized hail appears to be the other threats besides flash flooding/heavy rains. 9PM to 6AM looks quite active.
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Post by cardsnweather on Aug 3, 2022 12:44:41 GMT -6
Things should start firing in immediate metro around 3. Already seeing some get close.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 3, 2022 12:45:45 GMT -6
Long range models getting quite bullish with that mid month trough bringing an early taste/tease of autumn and a flip to more constant northwesterly flow. While I'm not going to say were done with excessive heat, I believe 70-80% of it for this year is behind us. Watch for the flip in September, I bet that's when the remainder hits us.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 3, 2022 12:51:43 GMT -6
flood watch for tonight..localized 3-6inches
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 3, 2022 12:53:46 GMT -6
Severe t-storm watch until 9 pm for the metro area.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 3, 2022 13:02:48 GMT -6
Winter Storm Watch for Dec 9
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 3, 2022 13:15:08 GMT -6
Winter Storm Watch for Dec 9 3 days late for my bday dang it |
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Post by pbc12871 on Aug 3, 2022 13:34:22 GMT -6
Just had ten minutes of heavy rain in Ballwin. Sun is coming back now.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 3, 2022 13:35:26 GMT -6
Winter Storm Watch for Dec 9 I hope not … I have a thing that day |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2022 13:38:36 GMT -6
Looks to get frisky here in a bit...pretty ideal setup with the boundary sagging in during peak heating and a very unstable airmass in place. Not much shear but plenty of DCAPE.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 3, 2022 13:39:21 GMT -6
Winter Storm Watch for Dec 9 I hope not … I have a thing that day Better change plans now, and get ahead of it...lol |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Aug 3, 2022 13:45:01 GMT -6
New sump pump might get a heck of a first test.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 3, 2022 13:45:21 GMT -6
Definitely looks pretty scattered here currently.
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