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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 5, 2022 17:22:17 GMT -6
Lots of Beakers , and a dark Beaker in the back lol  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 5, 2022 19:05:45 GMT -6
I'm 12 years older than Chris and I don't recall a run of weather this gorgeous for this long, either. We get past the chill this weekend and it sounds like the string is going to continue next week.
For once people aren't going to be able to say we only had two or three days of fall.
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 5, 2022 20:11:50 GMT -6
Yep- turned on a dime the first day of fall
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 5, 2022 20:26:54 GMT -6
Lots of Beakers , and a dark Beaker in the back lol Yes, I remember being at that convention. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 6, 2022 5:52:57 GMT -6
Mid October is looking cold.
Siberian Snowfall Extent for October is ahead of normal which bodes well for our winter prospects. Although, it is largely driven by a rapid advancement in late September. Hopefully, that picks up again the rest of the month.
Winter might get off to an early start.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 6, 2022 6:11:24 GMT -6
On my way to a short work trip in Nashville earlier this week, I decided to take a slightly different route that would take me through Mayfield, KY. I hadn't been through there since the tornado, and wanted to pay my respects and see how they were doing with rebuilding. Wow, I almost wish I hadn't. They are resilient people and are definitely doing lots of rebuilding, but it was haunting seeing the path still so clear, with lots of rubble still being collected and organized 10 months later. The way it cut directly through downtown was just insane. It was sobering for sure. We drive down to Murray a few times a year, and we ended up going through Mayfield on our way over to Cape last weekend. Used to make that drive all the time in college, when we'd spend time in TN on the weekends. What's surprising to me is they haven't fixed the snapped off light poles and road signs along what used to be Purchase Pkwy. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 6, 2022 7:50:47 GMT -6
Early starts to winter rarely bode well for anything past December.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 6, 2022 8:06:35 GMT -6
Early starts to winter rarely bode well for anything past December. We always get all excited about it, though. We're like the old (and maybe new) Cubs fans. "THIS IS OUR YEAR!" |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 6, 2022 8:14:25 GMT -6
Early starts to winter rarely bode well for anything past December. This feels like confirmation bias, but I’m willing to entertain the hypothesis. There are so many variables and the sample size of data is quite small. We are probably just dealing with noise/random variation as opposed to a true correlation/causal relationship. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 6, 2022 8:52:30 GMT -6
Fact. Cold and or snowy November and at least part of December more often than not lead to crap winters. 😬
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 6, 2022 9:37:16 GMT -6
Fact. Cold and or snowy November and at least part of December more often than not lead to crap winters. 😬 But if all winters are poor in STL, then does it really matter? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 6, 2022 9:39:19 GMT -6
Fact. Cold and or snowy November and at least part of December more often than not lead to crap winters. 😬 But if all winters are poor in STL, then does it really matter? Facts |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2022 9:51:10 GMT -6
There does seem to be a correlation with a cold and snowy November/early winter and a warm, snowless winter...at least recently. When the arctic unloads early in the season, it doesn't seem to recover.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 6, 2022 9:53:27 GMT -6
But if all winters are poor in STL, then does it really matter? Facts Squares, rectangles... Bourbon, whiskey... St. Louis winters, sucky...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 6, 2022 10:21:22 GMT -6
The latest drought monitor is a doozy  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 6, 2022 11:19:57 GMT -6
On my way to a short work trip in Nashville earlier this week, I decided to take a slightly different route that would take me through Mayfield, KY. I hadn't been through there since the tornado, and wanted to pay my respects and see how they were doing with rebuilding. Wow, I almost wish I hadn't. They are resilient people and are definitely doing lots of rebuilding, but it was haunting seeing the path still so clear, with lots of rubble still being collected and organized 10 months later. The way it cut directly through downtown was just insane. It was sobering for sure. We drive down to Murray a few times a year, and we ended up going through Mayfield on our way over to Cape last weekend. Used to make that drive all the time in college, when we'd spend time in TN on the weekends. What's surprising to me is they haven't fixed the snapped off light poles and road signs along what used to be Purchase Pkwy. That surprised me as well. Some of the traffic lights looked to be new and replaced, but they were all crooked and none of them were functioning. Everything was an assumed 4 way stop. Just shows what their priorities are in terms of rebuilding primary infrastructure I suppose. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 6, 2022 12:10:11 GMT -6
There does seem to be a correlation with a cold and snowy November/early winter and a warm, snowless winter...at least recently. When the arctic unloads early in the season, it doesn't seem to recover. Isn’t it more that the channel to the cold air is cut? It’s not like there is no cold available to be tapped. I’m of the mind that snow in the bank in November/December is better than hoping for snow in January like last year. Bank it when you can. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 6, 2022 16:07:20 GMT -6
There does seem to be a correlation with a cold and snowy November/early winter and a warm, snowless winter...at least recently. When the arctic unloads early in the season, it doesn't seem to recover. Isn’t it more that the channel to the cold air is cut? It’s not like there is no cold available to be tapped. I’m of the mind that snow in the bank in November/December is better than hoping for snow in January like last year. Bank it when you can. Really, it seems like it's related to both. The anomalously cold airmass doesn't seem to rebuild well after it is dumped out early...and because of that, as well as other drivers in play of course, the jet tends to stay more poleward later in the season. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 6, 2022 17:49:32 GMT -6
The latest drought monitor is a doozy The principal of regression toward the mean says things could be different even to to the other extreme, but if the plains lag behind in rain this winter the summer of 2023 could be brutal. |
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Post by maddogchief on Oct 6, 2022 20:54:03 GMT -6
Random question. Does anyone have a good site used to track hurricanes or which model site is best to do so?
I have a loved one currently in the potential bullseye of the next one coming this weekend to Central America and wanted to be able to give them some updates.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 6, 2022 22:11:49 GMT -6
Random question. Does anyone have a good site used to track hurricanes or which model site is best to do so? I have a loved one currently in the potential bullseye of the next one coming this weekend to Central America and wanted to be able to give them some updates. I think Levi's site Tropical Tidbits is good. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 6, 2022 22:11:50 GMT -6
Random question. Does anyone have a good site used to track hurricanes or which model site is best to do so? I have a loved one currently in the potential bullseye of the next one coming this weekend to Central America and wanted to be able to give them some updates. As far as free sites go, tropical tidbits is probably your best option
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 6, 2022 22:12:23 GMT -6
Dang it Snowman!! Haha
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 6, 2022 22:17:32 GMT -6
Hey you beat me by a few seconds lol.
I'd also recommend Tomer Burgs site for tropical tracking. He has some pretty cool ensemble maps on there
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Post by dschreib on Oct 7, 2022 7:11:30 GMT -6
Random question. Does anyone have a good site used to track hurricanes or which model site is best to do so? I have a loved one currently in the potential bullseye of the next one coming this weekend to Central America and wanted to be able to give them some updates. I use the CIMSS site.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 7, 2022 14:36:41 GMT -6
Random question. Does anyone have a good site used to track hurricanes or which model site is best to do so? I have a loved one currently in the potential bullseye of the next one coming this weekend to Central America and wanted to be able to give them some updates. storm2k.org is a great message board for hurricanes. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 7, 2022 14:58:15 GMT -6
Sooo what are the chances we get a good frost tonight and freeze north? Obviously the NWS has most areas highlighted for a reason. But we know how that goes sometimes...
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 7, 2022 15:04:11 GMT -6
I am feeling chesterfield valley will be 30 in the morning at spirit. With 35 at lambert. I think all of the area will see frost other than downtown. With how dry the air is I feel that we could see a season ending frost and freeze area wide as I had 4 mornings in september in the upper 30s which is quite chilly.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 7, 2022 16:03:57 GMT -6
Sooo what are the chances we get a good frost tonight and freeze north? Obviously the NWS has most areas highlighted for a reason. But we know how that goes sometimes... Pretty good. We'll see cold advection through this evening with slacking winds towards morning...that's a good setup for temps to bottom out. Lows should be 32-38 area wide which is supportive of frost formation...with a light freeze possible across the N counties. |
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 7, 2022 19:53:37 GMT -6
I’m guessing Lambert doesn’t fall below 40
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