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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 12, 2022 10:08:59 GMT -6
sunny here, nice dry sunny..warm. gross
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 12, 2022 10:16:23 GMT -6
So, I finally get to incorporate weather into my day job and I’m hoping somebody on here might have some resources related to natural disasters (especially hurricanes). Basically, I’m trying to assess the relative impact of natural disasters on healthcare utilization during the event and in the immediate months to follow. However, I’m struggling to find a way to categorize level of impact by geography (I.e zip code or county). Does anyone know of a data source that identifies or quantifies natural disaster impact (damage, deaths, injuries, etc) at a zip code or county level? I'm just skimming through things, but here's something, maybe. //www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/100079/insult_to_injury_natural_disasters_2.pdf Thanks, Snowman99! Interesting study with a lot of helpful references. Appreciate it |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 12, 2022 10:21:12 GMT -6
Sun is coming out here now. Had a few drops of rain overnight but nothing significant. Heard some distant thunder.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 12, 2022 11:12:07 GMT -6
Watch for a slight risk of fire danger south of I-44 tomorrow. RH is forecasted to be < 20% with winds gusting above 20 mph with mild drought conditions and little to no rain in the last week down there.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 12, 2022 11:13:42 GMT -6
Tornado outbreak in northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 12, 2022 11:31:19 GMT -6
Also, make sure these are turned on in the settings BRTN  I don't have the research radar option...must be a pro sub thing |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 12, 2022 11:48:36 GMT -6
Dark, turbulent sky with FROPA here...looks like pure autumn out there
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Oct 13, 2022 6:28:00 GMT -6
I was expecting more rain than the measly amount of .19" the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete is reporting. That includes both Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 13, 2022 6:36:03 GMT -6
Dont burn the next few days. Redflag warnings up even in the metro
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 13, 2022 7:01:41 GMT -6
The drought has expanded once again. It now includes 82% of the US. This is higher than the 81% coverage which occurred in July 2012.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 13, 2022 7:45:39 GMT -6
that does not bode well for winter imo. Might be cold, but dry useless boring dumb cold
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 13, 2022 8:17:24 GMT -6
The drought has expanded once again. It now includes 82% of the US. This is higher than the 81% coverage which occurred in July 2012. That’s uh, not great. Also agree with snowman about the moisture concerns this winter. I can forsee lots of wasted cold. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 13, 2022 9:36:12 GMT -6
The GFS forecast of relative humidity is looking pretty low through D7. For example, next Wednesday has RH close to 10% for parts of MO. That's about as low as you'll ever see around here.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 13, 2022 10:25:18 GMT -6
The GFS forecast of relative humidity is looking pretty low through D7. For example, next Wednesday has RH close to 10% for parts of MO. That's about as low as you'll ever see around here. Cold nights? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 13, 2022 10:57:52 GMT -6
The GFS forecast of relative humidity is looking pretty low through D7. For example, next Wednesday has RH close to 10% for parts of MO. That's about as low as you'll ever see around here. Cold nights? Yeah, especially mon and tues nights. Freeze is very possible,if not likely |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 13, 2022 11:01:08 GMT -6
The GEFS are coming in colder for early next week. They've been the warmest, and now show a good freeze across the area. Looks like the growing season ends for most if not all next week.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 13, 2022 11:22:52 GMT -6
I am truly concerned for next spring and summer. If this drought doesn't get under control this winter we could have a serious serious situation in really a large part of the country next year. Not to mention the heat could be unfathomable.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 13, 2022 12:19:58 GMT -6
I am truly concerned for next spring and summer. If this drought doesn't get under control this winter we could have a serious serious situation in really a large part of the country next year. Not to mention the heat could be unfathomable. Yep I agree. We are in territory that we haven't been in for quite some time. Mother nature balancing out the last decade plus (with the exception of 2012)? Might be a good winter to get those ice skates sharpened up - lots of cold I think with clean ice. If there's any water left in the ponds to freeze by then that is! |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 13, 2022 13:47:06 GMT -6
I am truly concerned for next spring and summer. If this drought doesn't get under control this winter we could have a serious serious situation in really a large part of the country next year. Not to mention the heat could be unfathomable. Mississippi is currently at -2.54 with the forecast to be at -3.3ft by next wednesday. Currently at the 35th lowest reading on record. Next Wednesday could be the 22nd lowest reading on record. All time low is -6.20 feet which occurred on 1.16.1940. The most recent top ten low water event was #9 at -4.57 ft on Jan. 1st 2013, which is an interesting analog because locally we arent at the drought stage of 2012 and have a long way to get there. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 13, 2022 14:50:15 GMT -6
Food Prices will just go up, and up! September was the worst in awhile. Forget pain at the pump, more like pain @ the Supermarket! A almost continental wide drought is not what we need, especially now!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 13, 2022 17:58:37 GMT -6
Mark the date! The first snow showing up in the GFS ensemble... at least that I've seen   |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 13, 2022 20:02:42 GMT -6
Looks like we are having our earliest PV Disruption on reliable record (the 1980s). So, cold in the near term and then likely a mild stretch in mid November.
That probably puts our first accumulating snow off until December.
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 14, 2022 6:04:35 GMT -6
I will say thos growing season definately will be over next week in my opinion area wide.
Just for the fact St.Charles smartfield is 29 this morning. This dry air cools very well
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 14, 2022 9:11:02 GMT -6
Looks like we are having our earliest PV Disruption on reliable record (the 1980s). So, cold in the near term and then likely a mild stretch in mid November. There is speculation that the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption could play a role in the recurrence intervals of PV disruptions even in the NH...eventually...maybe. The eruption has had a dramatic effect on the stratosphere already. For example, the mid latitudes at 30 mb in the SH have been anomalously cooling since May culminating in a record smashing cold state since July that continues today. The excess water vapor circulating down there is impeding the push of upwelling infrared radiation from the warmer surface into the high stratosphere causing it to cool significantly and in an unprecedented way at least since 1979 when reliable record keeping began. The problem is that the band of water vapor hasn't even dispersed through the SH yet nevermind the NH. It will likely take a couple of years for this to happen. So I don't think we can assign any attribution for the current PV disruption to the eruption. But I have seen a couple of writeups (more speculative at this point) that we could see an altered PV pattern, albeit only weak in the NH, in the coming years due to the eruption. I'm pretty skeptical of any noticeable effect in the NH, but thought it was interesting enough to at least post about it.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 14, 2022 9:28:16 GMT -6
Looks like we are having our earliest PV Disruption on reliable record (the 1980s). So, cold in the near term and then likely a mild stretch in mid November. There is speculation that the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption could play a role in the recurrence intervals of PV disruptions even in the NH...eventually...maybe. The eruption has had a dramatic effect on the stratosphere already. For example, the mid latitudes at 30 mb in the SH have been anomalously cooling since May culminating in a record smashing cold state since July that continues today. The excess water vapor circulating down there is impeding the push of upwelling infrared radiation from the warmer surface into the high stratosphere causing it to cool significantly and in an unprecedented way at least since 1979 when reliable record keeping began. The problem is that the band of water vapor hasn't even dispersed through the SH yet nevermind the NH. It will likely take a couple of years for this to happen. So I don't think we can assign any attribution for the current PV disruption to the eruption. But I have seen a couple of writeups (more speculative at this point) that we could see an altered PV pattern, albeit only weak in the NH, in the coming years due to the eruption. I'm pretty skeptical of any noticeable effect in the NH, but thought it was interesting enough to at least post about it. I knew there had been a number of volcanic eruptions in the past 6 months or so. I had wondered if cumulatively they might affect the atmosphere. I didn't think any of them individually had been big enough. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 14, 2022 10:28:11 GMT -6
RIP Bruce Sutter
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 14, 2022 11:45:35 GMT -6
Looks like the spaceX dragon crew spacecraft will be passing over the St. Louis Region on its way to splashdown around 3:44 pm CST. It will be 50-90 degrees above Horizon.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 14, 2022 13:27:24 GMT -6
And Robbie Coltrane(aka Hagrid) 😭 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 15, 2022 13:52:01 GMT -6
The operational gfs has been trying to get a major winter storm going around the 25th for the last several cycles.
In fact, 2 of the 12z gfs ensembles show major snow in and around STL.
Crazy to even see it modeled at all this early in the season.
That PV disruption is certainly throwing things into chaos a bit.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 15, 2022 14:03:32 GMT -6
The Mississippi River at Caruthersville, MO achieved a new low breaking the previous record of -0.82 ft set back in 2012. The NWS is forecasting the level to drop to -2.5 ft by this time next week. As of right now it is -1.5 ft.
It looks like the record in Memphis, TN is in jeopardy too. As of right now the level is -9.3 ft and the record from 1988 is -10.7 ft.
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