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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 15, 2022 15:02:27 GMT -6
NWS going with near record/record cold mon and tues nights, possible record cold highs as well. We all know what that means, a number of days later we'll have near record or record highs. Happens a lot anyway.
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Post by amstilost on Oct 15, 2022 17:32:31 GMT -6
How's this for a throw of the dice.......looking at previous long duration La Nina events yields a very positive analog for this winter. The La Nina of 1973 pretty much started in March,April,May (MAM) and lasted until AMJ of 1976. We are pretty much lined up with 1975. That winter was a little cooler as far as La Nina but we are cooler through the beginning of this year than 1975. 1975 ranks #9 for snowfall total at 34". La Nina's also coorelate to the record lows on the Mississippi. Also of note, the 3 year La Nina from MAM 1954 thru NDJ 1956 also coorelates with our very low snowfall year of 6" in 1956. Yikes.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 16, 2022 10:16:52 GMT -6
Growing season ends tomorrow. Yay! Then big warm up for next weekend. Boo!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 16, 2022 11:50:01 GMT -6
I recall just playing around with some longer range parts of the med range models, and noticed some very warm temps, like mid 80s at least becoming prominent in a week to 10 days. Main story is dry, followed by more dry. I may want to visit tower rock in the ms river soon. I also wonder if this might set up for river stages to be low enough for ice gorges to form this winter. Idk if its going to be cold enough but its a thought.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 16, 2022 13:26:02 GMT -6
Freeze warning tomorrow night
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 16, 2022 14:21:49 GMT -6
Definitely some signs of a big storm or two in the 7-14 day range for the Central US.
Gfs has even shown some tropical revenants making their way into our area on a couple runs.
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 16, 2022 14:25:51 GMT -6
Wow, Very Strongly worded Freeze Warning, temps as low as 18, now I know not necessarily 18 in St. Louis proper, but out of curiosity this has to be close to the all time coldest weather in October in the St. Louis area, does anyone know what the coldest ever in St. Louis was in October?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 16, 2022 14:41:21 GMT -6
Wow, Very Strongly worded Freeze Warning, temps as low as 18, now I know not necessarily 18 in St. Louis proper, but out of curiosity this has to be close to the all time coldest weather in October in the St. Louis area, does anyone know what the coldest ever in St. Louis was in October? October record low in STL is 21° set in 1925 |
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 16, 2022 14:50:08 GMT -6
Thankyou Snowstorm920, we are going to be close. Just shows how strong this airmass is. Likely it will be 24 to 27 in the metro but wow still.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 16, 2022 15:26:43 GMT -6
I watched the winter forecast by Ryan Hall and another guy on YouTube today. Both of them indicated a fairly heavy area of snow across the middle of the country, including east central Missouri and west central Illinois. The one did say it would come in two or three big hits well into the winter.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 16, 2022 15:58:13 GMT -6
I'll hold my breath
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Post by jeepers on Oct 16, 2022 16:00:42 GMT -6
My point forecast is saying 23. Thus time of year I’m trying to time when to blow out sprinklers, not ever thinking about temps in the 20s. Crazy.
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Post by amstilost on Oct 16, 2022 17:01:33 GMT -6
Family gathering the 22nd. Low to mid 70's sounds awesome with clear skies. I will need to mow/mulch leaves and was going to do it tomorrow. After some reading it sounds like I should wait until Friday with no threat of frost. Any comments on that from the 'landscapers' on here.😊
Thanks in advance.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 16, 2022 18:30:38 GMT -6
I'd be more concerned about severe weather vs frozen precip next week...looks like the second season may be ramping up into the rest of the month with the overall upper flow turning out of the SW and becoming active.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 16, 2022 18:47:13 GMT -6
I'd be more concerned about severe weather vs frozen precip next week...looks like the second season may be ramping up into the rest of the month with the overall upper flow turning out of the SW and becoming active. Agreed. The overall pattern looks pretty good for something severe in the middle of the country. Big trough over the intermountain west and ridging over the eastern US |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 16, 2022 18:53:41 GMT -6
meh
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Post by landscaper on Oct 16, 2022 19:14:55 GMT -6
I would be Leary of any significant rain next week. This past week was modeled to have nice decent rains through most of the area. We received between.10-.25” I’m the area , the ground is so dry it barely got the dirt wet on jobsite. Once your in one of these dry patterns, it seems like it’s hard to get a good rain storm. Hopefully the pattern will shift next month . It’s going to take a good 1-3” of rain to even begin to get the tres and grass looking good.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 16, 2022 21:18:30 GMT -6
Probably won't make it through tomorrow without firing up the furnace
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 17, 2022 7:05:01 GMT -6
Still have my windows open at night but that may change today. No furnace yet. I dont typically turn it on until december and my yearly maintenance is not scheduled until december 15. My understanding is a couple cold nights then back to warm weather this weekend.
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 17, 2022 7:26:58 GMT -6
I turned my furnace on only because my wife cant stand temps below 60 in the house. I have an older home and it swings big time this time of year, it will be 75 in the afternoon and 55 by morning. I just maintain it at 68 with one of the thermostats that will turn the air on if needed or heat on if needed, sometimes it runs the air and heat within the same hour, however it seems to be great on the utility bills as winter maxes out around 95 in the coldest weather and 95 in the hottest of summer.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 17, 2022 7:39:48 GMT -6
I turned my furnace on only because my wife cant stand temps below 60 in the house. I have an older home and it swings big time this time of year, it will be 75 in the afternoon and 55 by morning. I just maintain it at 68 with one of the thermostats that will turn the air on if needed or heat on if needed, sometimes it runs the air and heat within the same hour, however it seems to be great on the utility bills as winter maxes out around 95 in the coldest weather and 95 in the hottest of summer. My wife is at the age where 60...and below...is perfectly fine with her.
I can use a blanket. We said we're holding off until at least November for the furnace. We'll see how it goes.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 17, 2022 7:40:17 GMT -6
Oh, and GBO.
Booyah!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 17, 2022 8:07:03 GMT -6
Winds are supposed to be blowing pretty good still overnight into tomorrow morning. I'd imagine frost won't be as big a concern with winds that strong right? Do you guys think that KSTL will drop below 32 tonight? I have my doubts, but the cold air advection is legit and the ground is dry. Though with more concrete around KSTL, dry ground may be less of a factor. Wed morning may be the better shot for KSTL to go below 32. I haven't spent too much time on this, but this was my first assumption. I was curious on what others thought?
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 17, 2022 8:10:40 GMT -6
I feel personally the wind will force lambert below freezing, im thinking 27 tonight at lambert and 24 tomorrow night. While the rest of the area is 20 to 25.
But we will see, one thing for certain growing season is over this week, and it definately feels much earlier than usual compared to the last 10 fall seasons
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 17, 2022 8:49:03 GMT -6
Frost may not form with it being very dry airmass and breeze but won't matter temps will be well below freezing. If Lambert doesn't get below 30 I'd be shocked
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 17, 2022 9:02:18 GMT -6
Frost may not form with it being very dry airmass and breeze but won't matter temps will be well below freezing. If Lambert doesn't get below 30 I'd be shocked NWS's morning update today is going with 30 for tomorrow morning and 30 Wed morning at KSTL. |
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 17, 2022 9:25:27 GMT -6
We will see but I believe some of the heat island effects are not as significant on breezy nights as with on calm nights. For example I notice nights there is a breeze it tends to be more uniform across the area for example on a night like tonight 23 to 28, as opposed to nights where winds are calm and the latent heat release in the urban area may push lambert at 32 while say chesterfield and valley regions are 16 to 20.
Just my 2 cents likely wrong but just some observances I have noticed in the cold season.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 17, 2022 9:45:16 GMT -6
Strong CAA will offset the poor radiative cooling conditions...a hard freeze is pretty much imminent tonight with dewpoints running in the 20s.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 17, 2022 10:48:12 GMT -6
12z GFS is pretty frisky with the big storm system early next week. Would support some pretty good storms.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 17, 2022 11:06:10 GMT -6
12z GFS is pretty frisky with the big storm system early next week. Would support some pretty good storms. Yesterday's run looked pretty impressive with a strong shortwave moving through on Monday with a pronounced jetstreak overhead. But instability is lacking with a slow return of Gulf moisture. That may be a limiting factor with a stubborn ridge setting up across the Rio Grande region before that shortwave ejects out. |
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