Chris's Corner - Higgins Family Expands by Four Legs

Models have been hinting at a PV split which would lead to a potentially cold/active early December followed by a mild pattern for a couple weeks after.

dont look at the 12z gfs either

12z ukmet takes a different approach, but drops several inches of snow across the northern counties at day 5/6 as well.

The ingredients look good next week. Strong shortwave in the right place, but I suspect cold air at the surface will be very questionable. Ground temps will still be quite warm. 2m Temps are colder on the 12z GFS. Timing will matter too. IF IF IF this system plays out and produces snow, accumulations would be hard to come by during the day. Now, areas that might see snow begin before sunrise would be a different story.

Actually an interesting situation... not ready to call it a storm to watch... but definitely one of interest.

Thanksgiving week looking colder as well. Less warmth then previous days. Canadian looks like it wants to bring the Arctic Hammer down the weekend prior to Turkey Day. This season is gonna be a ride.

We don't know the final high yet but we do know the record from 2020 for 11/9 of 78F has been broken.

I believe this is the 8th record high broken this year.

I don't think any record lows have occurred in 2022 yet.

I'm pretty busy this week, but when I get time I'll do some statistical analysis to see how unusual that is.

Wow we are likely shattering the record today, already 80 at 1 p.m. I would not be supprised to see 3 more degrees added to that. In my book I deem shattering as 4 plus degrees past the record for the date, however im not sure what criteria is for everyone else.

Well looks like another 82*F done and dusted. Sun going down soon, so that should be a wrap on the temperature climb. Goes to show what warm temps aloft and down-slopping off the Ozark Plateau can do. Would of gotten even warmer if the winds were higher. Tomorrow is less favorable which is why mid 70s will likely be the max, but probably the last we see of t-shirt/shorts weather for awhile.

I topped out at 82.5*

The system next week does have quite a few things going for it. The position of the ridge over the top is nearly ideal, with the axis just north of the lakes. And the primary low tracks well to the south, with a pronounced inverted trof setting up to it's north into our region. That will make it tough to trend NW, as well as entrenching the cold air as it approaches. It's not looking like a big snowstorm, but I'm feeling better about the potential for a bit of snowfall after looking at today's runs. Some of the models show a pretty healthy looking shortwave moving through, although it does open up some as it approaches.

Ummmm, here we go with the nonsense!

That map has to be old from some other storm.

Sneaky system might try to skirt the southeastern counties Friday overnight into Saturday morning, mainly south and east of St. Louis, but a couple models do bring flurries as far northwest as the metro area. That said other models are way south with this small system, but something to keep an eye on.

Forgot how nice that time change is when it comes to model times!