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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 10, 2022 10:17:20 GMT -6
looks like an overnight monday event. Temps look crappy. Gfs is now south. I wouldn't bet on more than a few flakes mixed with rain.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 10, 2022 10:19:47 GMT -6
looks like an overnight monday event. Temps look crappy. Gfs is now south. I wouldn't bet on more than a few flakes mixed with rain. Best chance for anything meaningful now looks like Thursday/Friday next week if it can pull north enough. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 10, 2022 11:59:40 GMT -6
GFS has like 3 or 4 chances of snow going south of us ….. yep it’s officially winter lol
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 10, 2022 16:01:58 GMT -6
Pull that little impulse just a bit north Sat. morning. Would be nice to see some flakes around for opening morning of deer season.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2022 17:15:42 GMT -6
Pull that little impulse just a bit north Sat. morning. Would be nice to see some flakes around for opening morning of deer season. Might get your wish.Thinking you could see some decent flakes, maybe even a light dusting on the grass.
Metro area also can't rule out flakes from this either. Models have been creeping it northward the past few cycles. Models have overdone the arctic blast (not as extreme, and shifting the strongest cold air north a bit), should bring storms back north the next couple models cycles. Doesn't mean it 'Will' snow or stick, but it will be a bit unsettled from time to time with southern jet snaking to our south and polar vortex trying to pull stuff northward. 17-18th might be interesting south of I-44/I-70 unless we don't see a shift back north, or a weaker/more ripped up system.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Nov 10, 2022 18:58:38 GMT -6
Does Missouri deer season open this weekend? Illinois first season opens next Friday Pull that little impulse just a bit north Sat. morning. Would be nice to see some d for opening morning of deer season |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2022 20:13:02 GMT -6
0Z HRRR has got light snow southeast of I-255. just shy of Downtown. Belleville southeast gets a dusting to 2" per that run, in a band from Centerville, MO to Vandalia, IL. Timing is ideal from 12AM to 3/4AM Saturday early morning.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2022 20:19:35 GMT -6
The NAM however seems less jazzed up about it, sinking the disturbance farther south, and weaker then 18Z's Run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2022 20:21:05 GMT -6
FV3-HiRes is a solid hit for the previously mentioned zone, almost identical to the 0Z HRRR.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2022 20:27:37 GMT -6
3KM NAM better looking and more northwest then the 12KM version. Still a miss for the area, but improvement over the 3KM NAM's 18Z run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2022 21:46:38 GMT -6
0Z GFS now onboard!
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Nov 11, 2022 8:47:57 GMT -6
Really feels like we're flipping into winter and have at least some chances for snow in the coming weeks. Time for a new thread!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2022 9:10:28 GMT -6
Lots of good trends this morning for the southern Missouri board members. A couple hour period of moderate to heavy snow looks possible with a coating to an inch in spots by tomorrow morning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 11, 2022 9:33:22 GMT -6
shovel useage for some next week chris? I was told you said that lol.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 11, 2022 9:35:18 GMT -6
Happy Veterans Day to Chris and everyone else who has served! Thank you for your service!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2022 9:49:56 GMT -6
shovel useage for some next week chris? I was told you said that lol. Maybe if you need to dig a post hole for a fence… |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 11, 2022 10:01:39 GMT -6
GFS looks pretty dang solid for Tuesday.
It's going to be one of those situations where any snow that fall during the overnight/early morning hours will melt during the day
But still, snow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2022 10:14:13 GMT -6
GFS looks pretty dang solid for Tuesday. It's going to be one of those situations where any snow that fall during the overnight/early morning hours will melt during the day But still, snow Swing and a miss on the 12z ggem. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 11, 2022 10:21:24 GMT -6
Regardless of today's chill... im smoking a chicken for smoked chicken enchiladas.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 11, 2022 10:23:08 GMT -6
GFS looks pretty dang solid for Tuesday. It's going to be one of those situations where any snow that fall during the overnight/early morning hours will melt during the day But still, snow Swing and a miss on the 12z ggem. Dang Canadians |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 11, 2022 10:47:17 GMT -6
There are some beefy boys in the 12z GEFS suite. Keep in mind this is 10:1 ratios and includes stuff from tonight/tomorrow  |
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Post by landscaper on Nov 11, 2022 11:14:10 GMT -6
Euro looked good last night 1-2” right up I44
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 11, 2022 13:44:22 GMT -6
If we get much around here it's probably going to be fairly slushy on any pavement that's not an overpass or a bridge.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 11, 2022 14:25:16 GMT -6
NWS Has us down this way with a 60% chance of snow after 3 AM… Accumulations half inch…… I noticed the HRRR had a small area of up to 2 inches tonight
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2022 14:32:16 GMT -6
I'm not sure I can recall seeing 80 degrees down to 20's and snow inside of about 36 hours before. Very impressive!
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Post by amstilost on Nov 11, 2022 15:22:22 GMT -6
A heartfelt 'Thank You for your service" to Chris and all the other Veterans on the blog.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2022 16:16:46 GMT -6
Someone between Centerville, MO and Okawville, IL could be in for a small surprise early tomorrow morning. Models pretty centered on a enhanced band of lift in that area where there could be a heavy dusting up to an inch of snow on the grassy and elevated surfaces. anywhere along and South of I-44 up to I-70 in Illinois has a decent shot of seeing some flakes fly with a light dusting outside of the aforementioned band. North of I-44/I-70 should stay high and dry. This is a southern event.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 11, 2022 16:43:46 GMT -6
Someone between Centerville, MO and Okawville, IL could be in for a small surprise early tomorrow morning. Models pretty centered on a enhanced band of lift in that area where there could be a heavy dusting up to an inch of snow on the grassy and elevated surfaces. anywhere along and South of I-44 up to I-70 in Illinois has a decent shot of seeing some flakes fly with a light dusting outside of the aforementioned band. North of I-44/I-70 should stay high and dry. This is a southern event. The rap agrees with you while the other short term models are further south |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 11, 2022 18:09:13 GMT -6
Just walked outside. Kinda has that damp feel outside. I was not expecting that.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 11, 2022 20:24:51 GMT -6
0Z's 3KM NAM's 2 to 3" maximum in a band from Potosi, MO to Belleville, IL... I wish! 
12KM version almost identical though a bit more 'realistic'. Showing 1-2" in basically the same area.
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