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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 29, 2024 21:55:41 GMT -6
Storm to the north is certainly a loud one.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 29, 2024 22:30:22 GMT -6
Storm is here! Woo hoo! This was unexpected, but welcomed.
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Post by dmbstl on Jul 29, 2024 22:50:12 GMT -6
Storm is here! Woo hoo! This was unexpected, but welcomed. I wasn't aware O'Fallon Illinois had a moisture shortage issue. But fun watching the lightning from my porch. Pretty darn active. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 29, 2024 23:11:44 GMT -6
Any rain is welcome, especially with the heat coming.
Plus I love storms, love hearing them.
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Post by REB on Jul 30, 2024 6:25:02 GMT -6
1.59” total yesterday.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 30, 2024 7:00:04 GMT -6
2 strikes so far for the 3km NAM...
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jul 30, 2024 7:10:33 GMT -6
2 strikes so far for the 3km NAM... Does that mean the 3km NAM is onto something or way off? And if onto something, what does that mean for the rest of today? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 30, 2024 7:12:40 GMT -6
Wind driven ENH issued for parts of the northern CWA  |
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Post by weatherj on Jul 30, 2024 7:22:14 GMT -6
Fairly significant tree and powerline damage here in town from yesterday evenings storm. A local establishment had their roof ripped off. I knew being on the SW edge of the storm and seeing the notch develop was not a good thing. No confirmed tornado, but I know that's the area damaging wind and possible tornadoes are located most often. The storm was a southeast mover.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 7:24:23 GMT -6
That Iowa cluster is the one to watch for us later this afternoon/evening. We've seen these over the years many times survive and crash on through, even when the models don't catch on until the event is unfolding basically. But the HRRR has it surviving already so I'd say it'll get pretty stormy this eve.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 30, 2024 7:33:44 GMT -6
That Iowa cluster is the one to watch for us later this afternoon/evening. We've seen these over the years many times survive and crash on through, even when the models don't catch on until the event is unfolding basically. But the HRRR has it surviving already so I'd say it'll get pretty stormy this eve. Was coming here to post this...that cluster has our name on it. The question is whether it survives the toasty mid-level temps/CINH |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 7:43:17 GMT -6
That Iowa cluster is the one to watch for us later this afternoon/evening. We've seen these over the years many times survive and crash on through, even when the models don't catch on until the event is unfolding basically. But the HRRR has it surviving already so I'd say it'll get pretty stormy this eve. Was coming here to post this...that cluster has our name on it. The question is whether it survives the toasty mid-level temps/CINH Yea that's the wild card for sure. I remember one maybe 5-6 years ago in almost the same exact location that none of the models had surviving until it was hitting our northern counties. It ended up expanding into a formidable line of storms which even back built across the river from IL and pushed all the way down the river valley nearly to the Gulf Coast. One of the best shelf clouds I've ever seen! Hoping for the same from this one. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 30, 2024 7:44:12 GMT -6
2 strikes so far for the 3km NAM... Does that mean the 3km NAM is onto something or way off? And if onto something, what does that mean for the rest of today? It had two complexes impacting the Metro last night and this morning...both misses. That next cluster in line bears close watching though...the derecho potential is there for sure |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 30, 2024 8:28:20 GMT -6
The HRRR looks nasty later today around here.
It shows that Iowa complex bowing out as it races SE across the area
It looks like a major wind bag is possible this afternoon
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 30, 2024 8:41:51 GMT -6
From last evening's storms. There was confirmed tornado in the viewing area reported by storm chasers. It was actually that cell that I mentioned yesterday that had it been lighter out I would of chased.
From SPC:
0145 2 NNW Kaufman Madison IL 3889 8979 Storm chasers reported a rope tornado west of Alhambra. (LSX)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 30, 2024 8:47:37 GMT -6
Watch for Iowa Storm Cluster issued upstream. Following the direction of the watch it looks like it'll target the St. Louis area head-on unless it shifts or dissipates.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 30, 2024 8:54:47 GMT -6
The HRRR looks nasty later today around here. It shows that Iowa complex bowing out as it races SE across the area It looks like a major wind bag is possible this afternoon Looks like it has the metro in the path. Radar returns blowing into the area from the main complex. |
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Post by REB on Jul 30, 2024 9:12:04 GMT -6
Just checked my Davis rain amount against my CoCoRaHS gauge. .06” difference. Glad I did this.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 30, 2024 9:33:13 GMT -6
Just checked my Davis rain amount against my CoCoRaHS gauge. .06” difference. Glad I did this. I need to get a cocorahs gauge, but due to set up locations I won't be able to get it as open as the roof top gauge. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 9:33:52 GMT -6
The latest HRRR run made it totally disappear lol.
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Post by REB on Jul 30, 2024 9:36:06 GMT -6
Just checked my Davis rain amount against my CoCoRaHS gauge. .06” difference. Glad I did this. I need to get a cocorahs gauge, but due to set up locations I won't be able to get it as open as the roof top gauge. Mine has a minimal amount of obstruction. That’s why the .06 “ discrepancy made sense. Davis is wide open. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 30, 2024 10:09:18 GMT -6
I would not be suprised to see upgrade to MODERATE risk later.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 30, 2024 10:29:54 GMT -6
I would not be suprised to see upgrade to MODERATE risk later. Taking their time with the 1130 update... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 30, 2024 10:30:24 GMT -6
Storms look they are weakening at this time
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 30, 2024 10:34:44 GMT -6
Storms look they are weakening at this time Looks like it did in the last ten minutes. Also pushed an outflow in the front of it in the last few frames. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 10:40:15 GMT -6
Hmmm...maybe the HRRR is right, two runs in a row of it going poof!
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 30, 2024 10:44:43 GMT -6
Spc enhanced for metro now
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 30, 2024 10:45:16 GMT -6
Enhanced risk added for all of metro
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 30, 2024 10:50:34 GMT -6
Enhanced risk added for all of metro 30 percent hatched for straight line winds. 45 percent hatched is the threshold for moderate. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 30, 2024 11:04:56 GMT -6
Trying to take a more ESE path rather than SE
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