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Post by ajd446 on Jul 30, 2024 11:08:29 GMT -6
I would not be suprised to see it explode in an hour or 2. Un less.mid-level temps are too hot
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 30, 2024 11:48:09 GMT -6
Hello all!!! I've been so bad about posting in here the past several months.
As far as today goes. Right now that MCS doesn't look too strong. Not sure what is up with the HRRR today. But it seems to be kinda screwy with data.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 30, 2024 11:49:17 GMT -6
Guess we will see if things get stronger this afternoon up north. But this could move more into Illinois and not impact us.
MCS are always so unpredictable!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 30, 2024 11:54:43 GMT -6
MCD out for a possible down stream watch across the area this afternoon
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 12:06:01 GMT -6
We may be seeing the beginnings of a "handover" from the old cluster to a newly developing cluster along the outflow boundary in northern MO. Whether or not that becomes a mature complex is up in the air.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 30, 2024 12:30:03 GMT -6
So far it does seem like the warm temps are winning like several of you all said. May not be too.much but we need to watch the outflow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 30, 2024 13:01:19 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 13:12:24 GMT -6
They clearly don't believe the HRRR.
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jul 30, 2024 13:14:57 GMT -6
They clearly don't believe the HRRR. Chris doesn't appear to believe the HRRR either based on his most recent Facebook update. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 30, 2024 13:27:24 GMT -6
Looks like the storms are getting some new vigor north and northeast of Columbia. Right along the southern edge of the existing t-storm watch.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 30, 2024 13:58:27 GMT -6
Came out to the Garden to pick some watermelons and tomatoes after looking at the radar after Chris's heads up on Facebook and I can already hear thunder out of the I'm assuming it's the cells that are just popping in Northern Jefferson County I can't see my screen so I can't proofread it
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jul 30, 2024 14:00:39 GMT -6
There's the watch for the metro now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 14:05:06 GMT -6
Lol HRRR still totally clueless. Things are certainly popping now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 30, 2024 14:10:18 GMT -6
Lol HRRR still totally clueless. Things are certainly popping now. HRRrRrrrr had the right idea this morning then lost it. Might have something to do with its overmixing problem |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 14:27:05 GMT -6
Interesting distribution of storms so far. We’ll see if a complex takes firm somewhere.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 30, 2024 14:31:11 GMT -6
Interesting distribution of storms so far. We’ll see if a complex takes firm somewhere. I was thinking the same thing. Very interesting evolution so far. We shall see... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 14:38:52 GMT -6
I was expecting the outflow driven broken line to be a bit more substantial by now.
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Post by scmhack on Jul 30, 2024 14:51:00 GMT -6
I was expecting the outflow driven broken line to be a bit more substantial by now. Look at the Iowa border. There's round 2. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 30, 2024 15:13:10 GMT -6
Should get some more organization once those two outflows collide.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 30, 2024 15:32:45 GMT -6
Surprised it hasn't rained here yet but the stuff seems to fizzle out and the storm it by Sullivan or just north of there it's just sitting there dumping on them. Had quite a bit of Thunder around me but haven't had a drop of rain yet
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 30, 2024 15:34:37 GMT -6
I'm thinking the HRRR may have been on to something.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 30, 2024 15:49:21 GMT -6
Had a thundershower pop up on us right on top of us. Got a quick tenth.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 30, 2024 16:04:28 GMT -6
This could have been worse.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 30, 2024 16:06:44 GMT -6
Warm temps saved us today. Almost the its too warm to storm type of day.
That is A ok with me. Hopefully we get through the rest of the week without too much severe weather.
Hrrr definatelt was not 100 percent correct but was on to something as some of you all alluded too.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 30, 2024 16:11:58 GMT -6
This got messy fast this afternoon. Still some untouched air aloft north of I-70 so it will be interesting to see how complex dropping out of Iowa reacts to that. Not a clean line at all. Annoying and tough to nail down.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 30, 2024 16:13:10 GMT -6
I’ve noticed when the HRRR does a very quick 180 like that it tends to be on to something, in either direction.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 30, 2024 16:37:27 GMT -6
The stuff in Iowa, for the most part, looks to be headed to the same area that had storms last evening.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 30, 2024 16:43:37 GMT -6
This got messy fast this afternoon. Still some untouched air aloft north of I-70 so it will be interesting to see how complex dropping out of Iowa reacts to that. Not a clean line at all. Annoying and tough to nail down. Seems like there were probably pockets of warmer air aloft out there and hence localized CINH that limited coverage. Would expect those storms to the north to struggle with loss of DTH but it's worth watching. We only got a heavy sprinkle here and some outflow wind...the little storms behind the OFB just collapsed over us. About on par with this season and last...amazing how storms have struggled lately in central/E Jersey Co. The dewpoint was near 80* today...plenty of juice just not good thermodynamics. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 30, 2024 16:51:48 GMT -6
Getting 40-50 mph wind gusts with little to no rain.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 30, 2024 17:05:33 GMT -6
Eastern and southern Illinois getting smoked right now.
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