Chris's Corner - Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds from Beryl

Looks like we'll be lucky to break a tenth today around here. I figured as much with this system nosing into the surface ridge and a lack of sustained return flow. The warm frontal zone does look to get active mid-week..."guess we'll see"

Two whole hundredths so far today IMBY...models showed about a half inch

Loving this pattern overall. Yes some areas could see more rain, but it's Aug 12th and it seems like the extreme heat and humidity is taking a vacation in the back seat of the car! 😊

Truly amazing what a difference in the two ends of town.

Thursday late afternoon/evening is looking interesting. I think we may see an enhanced risk somewhere close to here.

This is been on the news so I'm pretty sure I can post this here. I got words that Union Pacific steam locomotive 4014 big boy is making a Heartland of AmericaTour starting Aug. 28th. I know it is scheduled to be in DeSoto on Thursday September 12th at 11:00 a.m. and obviously that's pending a good schedule. Stuff happens. This link gives the schedule from when they leave Cheyenne and make all their stops. It is making a stop in St Louis on Sept 11 but there is no public access at this location. Info is in schedule. I have been waiting for this to come through DeSoto since it was back in operation and on the rails in 2019. 




UP Schedule

👍👍 I was able to get track side (-25') when it passed through Eureka, MO at track speed on it's way to the stop in Pacific back in 2022 I think it was. Pretty amazing at 40??mph.

Complex forecast tomorrow in terms of severe weather potential.
Impacts from overnight storms tonight may be significant on the final outcome tomorrow afternoon and evening.
The morning storms... even if they remain mostly north of I-70 seem likely to push some sort of an outflow boundary south to near I-44 and I-70...if not a little bit south of there. But the synoptic cold front will also remain well to the north. There is a chance for significant recovery on either side of the outflow boundary and in advance of the synoptic scale front. Some of the CAMS have been hinting at the idea of two zones of severe potential. The first would develop earlier in the day (mid-afternoon) along the outflow boundary. These storms have the potential to grow upscale and sweep east producing heavy rain, some damaging winds and even a tornado threat.... although the upper level winds look somewhat weaker along this boundary at time of initiation which would limit the shear and tornado threat. However, low level shear may be locally enhanced and the instability stands to be more robust as the air south of the boundary will not have been impacted by earlier storms. The second zone to watch for strong to severe storms will be along/near the synoptic cold front during the evening. These storms will have stronger mid-level flow to work with, but weaker surface winds...and hence weaker frontal convergence. It is also likely to be at least a little less unstable. Still, I like the idea of identifying two zones for storm development tomorrow afternoon into the evening. At this point, I have no problem with what is a pretty broad brushed, conditional Level 2 risk zone tomorrow. We may be able to refine things a bit more after the AM storms.

Just barely grazing the area now

Doesn't look like we are going to be having much sun today. Are there other dynamics at play today to bring the severe risk?

Not really...looking pretty marginal to me

Sun is out here now. When I posted above, the visible satellite loop looked like it wasn't thinning. That's my bad.

We’ve pretty well been in the sun all day down here. Feels nasty.

The numbers don't lie:
96/76/105. That's gross