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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 18, 2024 21:05:06 GMT -6
Well looks like we got one more blast of heat before Fall. Par for the course! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 19, 2024 8:56:05 GMT -6
We are entering the peak of hurricane season and the Atlantic remains eerily quiet
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Post by ComoEsJn on Aug 19, 2024 8:57:55 GMT -6
Well looks like we got one more blast of heat before Fall. Par for the course! as long as the humidity starts dropping off by Labor Day and beyond. I'll grudgingly accept 85-90 for a little bit into September, just need those 70 dew points to disappear until next May & June. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 19, 2024 9:18:59 GMT -6
We are entering the peak of hurricane season and the Atlantic remains eerily quiet A question I've had for a long time. Each year about April we get the predictions about how many hurricanes we are supposed to get and how many are supposed to be Cat 3 or higher. Is there ever an audit of those predictions come December or January that is made public to account for the accuracy of those predictions? Seems to me like most years the prediction is for a large number of storms but I don't think that number is reached very often. In other words those predictions frequently seem to exist to put fear in people that I think may not is warranted. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 19, 2024 9:28:36 GMT -6
We are entering the peak of hurricane season and the Atlantic remains eerily quiet A question I've had for a long time. Each year about April we get the predictions about how many hurricanes we are supposed to get and how many are supposed to be Cat 3 or higher. Is there ever an audit of those predictions come December or January that is made public to account for the accuracy of those predictions? Seems to me like most years the prediction is for a large number of storms but I don't think that number is reached very often. In other words those predictions frequently seem to exist to put fear in people that I think may not is warranted. I second this. This year in particular it was REALLY hyped up! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 19, 2024 9:38:54 GMT -6
Everyone thinks everything is fear mongering. It isn't. They put out actual forecasts that they think about the season. They don't say how many landfalls will occur. With the very warm ocean Temps and La Nina expected to form, all predictions were quite high. The saharan dust has helped subdue development to some degree at times. But let's remember that the next 6 weeks or so is usually the busiest time and things can ramp up very rapidly and stay that way for an extended period. As for verifying forecasts, I'm sure google can help. Look back at actual predictions then see how many there were.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 19, 2024 10:11:46 GMT -6
I agree to an extent, but there is a degree of overhyping that goes on nowadays with all forms of extreme weather. Most times it is at least partially valid for reasons like you mentioned (warm waters, La Nina, etc.). But between naming winter storms, "new" terms the media obsesses over, etc. it has gotten carried away. Fun new terms like "atmospheric river, bomb cyclone, polar vortex, etc." get lots of clicks and shares the same way an overexaggerated tropical or winter forecast gets.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 19, 2024 10:30:56 GMT -6
Well actual meteorological places make the forecasts. The media does with it what they will. Naming winter storms was a weather channel thing. A stupid thing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 19, 2024 10:40:33 GMT -6
I agree to an extent, but there is a degree of overhyping that goes on nowadays with all forms of extreme weather. Most times it is at least partially valid for reasons like you mentioned (warm waters, La Nina, etc.). But between naming winter storms, "new" terms the media obsesses over, etc. it has gotten carried away. Fun new terms like "atmospheric river, bomb cyclone, polar vortex, etc." get lots of clicks and shares the same way an overexaggerated tropical or winter forecast gets. Most of that is media companies **cough cough The Weather Channel** trying to drive up ratings by hyping up weather systems. The naming of winter storms is one of the stupidest things they do. I should also point out while it’s been relatively quiet in the Atlantic recently, thanks the Beryl we are actually at one of the highest ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) to date in the northern Atlantic with still plenty of season left.  |
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Post by sgdragons on Aug 20, 2024 8:21:53 GMT -6
Somebody awhile back was asking about a drought update in the middle of that hurricane remnants. I imagine I'll be able to give you an update here in Ste. Genevieve county soon. We are getting crispy. Amazing how much rain just splits the area consistently.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 20, 2024 9:43:46 GMT -6
Actually, last year was forecast to be a below normal season. It ended up being much worse than forecast. One of the most active on record... I believe the 4th most active on record.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 21, 2024 7:42:54 GMT -6
It's light enough to barely wet the pavement. But I have a little bit of RAIN this morning.
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Post by dschreib on Aug 21, 2024 8:57:19 GMT -6
Not sure if NOAA puts out a verification report, but CSU does.
They go back to 2019.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 21, 2024 11:40:42 GMT -6
Man, how are we supposed to deal with 90's again next week after this fantastic stuff?
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 21, 2024 20:14:07 GMT -6
This weather is heaven like. I imagine we only get 30ish days like this every year (every year is different)! So thankful we get to experience weather like yesterday and today. Lows around 50 to upper 50s with spots of fog tomorrow morning on Aug 22nd. Wow! KSTL won't break a record low tomorrow morning most likely, but we will be in the territory zone. I wish we had official records at the other airports because some areas would see record lows tomorrow morning!
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Post by sgdragons on Aug 22, 2024 12:31:27 GMT -6
Man, how are we supposed to deal with 90's again next week after this fantastic stuff? Kids were in full fall mode at practice this morning. Hoodies, sweat pants etc. Rude awakening coming lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 22, 2024 15:16:32 GMT -6
Some serious "we're gonna pay for this" weather lately for sure...seems like an early fall could be in the cards once next week's heat subsides.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 22, 2024 20:31:28 GMT -6
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Post by amstilost on Aug 23, 2024 7:34:33 GMT -6
Went to the Botanical Garden yesterday. Wow, just an amazingly beautiful day. Looks like we just missed the Corpse Flower opening. Not sure a 4-5 hour wait in line, according to some friendly people sharing their experience, is something I would want to do. Just sitting by a flowing stream in the shade while looking at the amazing landscape is more my speed.😊
Woke up to a low of 54*. I checked Sullivan and seen a 52 to 54* swing twice this morning, avoiding 53*. 😁😁
Hopefully this warm stretch is short lived.
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 23, 2024 14:29:48 GMT -6
Went outside to get the mail today. Boy definitely warmer,
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 23, 2024 16:29:18 GMT -6
Looks like models have trended towards a bit more development with that trof split in the N/NW Gulf next week and that moisture gets thrown into the slow moving front towards next weekend...that looks to be our only real significant rain chances for a bit. There's a slight chance for some showers along the river tonight/tomorrow AM and again on Sunday but it's looking sparse.
Monday/Tuesday is looking like a scorcher with h85 temps of 20*+ and a favorable low-level flow for mixing and downslope.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 24, 2024 9:55:05 GMT -6
Dave is going with the Dry and Warm Fall forecast all 3 months with October the warmest. Makes no mention of any Gulf Tropical Moisture from remnants/storms.
I'm going with a cool to seasonable September with tropical remnant potential around mid to late Month, otherwise near normal precipitation. October is warm and dry first 2/3rds of the month, that I agree with, but more tropical remnants may play with us again towards the 20-25th of the month, then cooler to near normal going into Halloween. November looks like August but with swings, especially after a 2 weeks long warm spell to start the month, then it turns active after the 15th with 1 to 2 autumn severe weather outbreaks going into early December. Freeze/Frost tough to find. Think it'll be after Halloween especially for the freeze. Possibly around or after Turkey Day. No Snow is expected. La Nina and -PDO/PNA is in play through December. NAO/AO doesn't look to play ball until MLK Day in January, but that's getting way ahead of ourselves.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 24, 2024 10:03:23 GMT -6
Cluster of storms in west/Central Missouri also going more expansive and eastward then originally expected as well. Debris clouds could hamper the temps a bit this afternoon, maybe even get an outflow here towards the mid to late afternoon to take an edge off.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Aug 25, 2024 16:37:58 GMT -6
My daughter shared this... Kelso MN... that cape though...  Sorry it's blurry... 9106 sfc cape |
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Post by dschreib on Aug 26, 2024 7:10:06 GMT -6
In case anyone was wondering, this week is going to suuuuuuuuuuuuu....uuuuuuuuuu.....uuuuuuuuuck.
Hopefully summer's last gasp.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 26, 2024 7:46:49 GMT -6
In case anyone was wondering, this week is going to suuuuuuuuuuuuu....uuuuuuuuuu.....uuuuuuuuuck. Hopefully summer's last gasp. Awful weather pattern. Got spoiled last week and a little rain wouldn't hurt |
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Post by dschreib on Aug 26, 2024 8:21:38 GMT -6
In case anyone was wondering, this week is going to suuuuuuuuuuuuu....uuuuuuuuuu.....uuuuuuuuuck. Hopefully summer's last gasp. Awful weather pattern. Got spoiled last week and a little rain wouldn't hurt Agree. I guess August sort of slipped past me without realizing that we've only had about .85" of rain for the month in Marissa. Probably also because just north of us has had quite a bit more from a couple of those pop-up downpours. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2024 10:34:02 GMT -6
In case anyone was wondering, this week is going to suuuuuuuuuuuuu....uuuuuuuuuu.....uuuuuuuuuck. Hopefully summer's last gasp. Awful weather pattern. Got spoiled last week and a little rain wouldn't hurt We need more than a little...the drought is rearing it's head again. Farmers are already cutting silage out here...doesn't look like a very good corn crop locally |
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Post by yypc on Aug 26, 2024 14:02:17 GMT -6
Lambert already up to 100 with a 68 dp. Stout air mass.
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 26, 2024 15:13:10 GMT -6
NBM said 98 F today. We made it to at least 100 F. NBM says 101 F for tomorrow. Given the NBM's low bias today I'm going to say 102 F for tomorrow.
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