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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 8, 2024 15:17:16 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 8, 2024 15:25:13 GMT -6
Model trends getting very concerning for Louisiana. This looks like a rapid intensification into landfall situation. Definitely a chance it becomes a major hurricane at landfall. Quick mover though, so should limit some impacts. Could bring STL a bunch of rain if you believe the 12z Euro We need the rain so let’s hope. First NHC outlook for soon to be Francine has the center coming up this way  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 8, 2024 15:38:44 GMT -6
We'll have to see how strong the ridge gets as it develops and lifts towards us...it'll need the nudge from a stronger ridge to get it this far W. Those usually go up through N AR and S IL.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 8, 2024 16:00:23 GMT -6
42 at the house this morning. It was amazing! But it is getting VERY dry out here. So hopefully, future Francine finds her way up this way late in the week.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 8, 2024 20:11:09 GMT -6
I had no idea this even existed. And according to the video construction on the new River Des Peres tunnels will start in 2029 and will be up to 200' below ground. msdprojectclear.org/ |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 9, 2024 7:47:16 GMT -6
The NWS has bumped our rain chances up to 50-60% from Francine.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 9, 2024 9:01:47 GMT -6
officially a 50 mph tropical storm now
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 9, 2024 9:02:01 GMT -6
Francine is now a 50MPH Tropical Storm, expected to reach near the MO/IL/KY tri-state area around Midnight Saturday Morning. Expecting rapid intensification from this thing. Placing predictions on a Cat 3 to 4 Landfall near Abbeville/Lafayette, LA
Models try to stall this thing out over the Mid-Mississippi River/Bi-State region through the weekend into Monday AM, so we could be talking several inches of rain, especially along and south of I-44/I-70
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 9, 2024 9:18:41 GMT -6
Lots of smoke this morning. Sun was orange. Beautiful sunrise
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 9, 2024 9:22:45 GMT -6
Lots of smoke this morning. Sun was orange. Beautiful sunrise Saw it and river fog as I was going down IL-15 and I-255 to Sauget. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 9, 2024 10:22:28 GMT -6
Models show a lot of rain south of 70 and it drying up right around BRTN’s house…
Will be interesting to watch unfold.
Still concerned about rapid intensification into LA, but looks like ceiling is probably CAT 3
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Post by sgdragons on Sept 9, 2024 10:28:10 GMT -6
What is the timeline for said potential storm? Asking for around 7pm Friday.(IF this were to affect us)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 9, 2024 10:45:34 GMT -6
What is the timeline for said potential storm? Asking for around 7pm Friday.(IF this were to affect us) South of I-70 looks Soggy Friday night into Saturday before she breaks up and becomes more scattered showery in nature. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 9, 2024 11:04:43 GMT -6
Some models bring the outer bands and even the northwest flank of the system by Thursday evening/night but then stalls it. Might be our prayers answered regarding our current mini-drought/dry spell.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 9, 2024 11:07:49 GMT -6
LOL! Canadian GEM and it's pivot right along the Mississippi River from Cairo to the quad cities. It's one of the most northwestern outliners.
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Post by dschreib on Sept 9, 2024 12:19:24 GMT -6
Feeling more comfortable with my low temp readings the past couple nights. I had 41* last night. Browsed around on the WeatherLink app at stations in the area and found multiple 40-41-42 readings in outlying areas.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 9, 2024 12:26:14 GMT -6
She's almost a Hurricane already. Satellite imagery a bit delayed but decent symmetry and lightning near the center. She's wrapping up and intensifying. Sitting over bath water right now through Tuesday night then it drops lower as it approaches the LA coastline, but still borderline for tropical storms. Currently at 60MPH winds as of 1PM. Should be a hurricane by the 10PM advisory if not sooner.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 9, 2024 13:38:17 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 9, 2024 13:48:19 GMT -6
Here is the latest NBM precep totals into early next week Looking likely that the SE half of the area will see significant rain from Francine  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 9, 2024 15:22:25 GMT -6
Models show a lot of rain south of 70 and it drying up right around BRTN’s house… Will be interesting to watch unfold. Still concerned about rapid intensification into LA, but looks like ceiling is probably CAT 3 Go ahead and lock that in... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 9, 2024 17:33:13 GMT -6
Francine’s eye is starting to look impressive on radar. Rapid intensification should occur tonight.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 9, 2024 20:22:46 GMT -6
Francine’s eye is starting to look impressive on radar. Rapid intensification should occur tonight. You can now see the eye on Brownsville radar. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 9, 2024 20:26:12 GMT -6
Anyone going to try and see the big boy tomorrow?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 10, 2024 7:11:35 GMT -6
Francine’s eye is starting to look impressive on radar. Rapid intensification should occur tonight. Surprise... She didn't. Actually weakened in structure a bit, but still forecast to become a Hurricane today or tonight. Likely will be no higher then a strong cat 1 or 2 at landfall now unless she does something unexpected. Looks likely to stall over the area from Friday through the weekend as it rains itself out and becomes less discrete. |
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 10, 2024 7:57:57 GMT -6
Unfortunately looks like trends are slightly southeast leaving most locations along and north of 44 and 70 with little rainfall. Not good trends for our growing drought. Unless I am reading the qpf wrong. It does not look good today.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 10, 2024 8:18:00 GMT -6
Francine has been struggling with dry/stable air and has been trending more east for landfall
I have my doubts about significant rainfall getting this far NW
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2024 8:47:59 GMT -6
Francine’s eye is starting to look impressive on radar. Rapid intensification should occur tonight. Surprise... She didn't. Actually weakened in structure a bit, but still forecast to become a Hurricane today or tonight. Likely will be no higher then a strong cat 1 or 2 at landfall now unless she does something unexpected. Looks likely to stall over the area from Friday through the weekend as it rains itself out and becomes less discrete. That's the second one this year which has failed to do so. Aside from Harvey, that area seems to not be as conducive to rapid intensification as the eastern GOM. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 10, 2024 8:48:21 GMT -6
Francine has been struggling with dry/stable air and has been trending more east for landfall I have my doubts about significant rainfall getting this far NW Nws in Arkansas slashing totals down there. Anything is welcome. I'm hoping for an inch |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 10, 2024 10:52:51 GMT -6
Models really cutting back on precip totals. GFS is almost high and dry minus the southeastern counties. Reality setting back in. Drought leads to more drought.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 10, 2024 13:32:49 GMT -6
NBM still looks good rainfall wise for the SE half of the area  |
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