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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 23, 2024 10:37:39 GMT -6
12Z GEMM seems to be getting the memo. Also lovely sit and spin over the area for Dayz with several inches 6-9" of QPF... Geez. GFS looks more weaker and less excited. ICON has been all over the place.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 23, 2024 10:43:31 GMT -6
Models hint at a pattern reset late the 1st week of October with yet another system slipping into the Gulf which may or may not interact with an approaching frontal system... Drought busting pattern seems to be getting well established.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 23, 2024 10:53:45 GMT -6
UKMET also pretty similar. In fact it's similar to the Canadian. We get Jackpotted...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 23, 2024 10:56:28 GMT -6
Latest 7 day QPF from the WPC  |
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mrbogs
Weather Weenie
Posts: 19 
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Post by mrbogs on Sept 23, 2024 11:22:36 GMT -6
Models hint at a pattern reset late the 1st week of October with yet another system slipping into the Gulf which may or may not interact with an approaching frontal system... Drought busting pattern seems to be getting well established. I hope you are wrong. I will be in Indian Rocks (between Clearwater and St. Pete beaches) from Oct 5-12. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Sept 23, 2024 11:41:43 GMT -6
Glorious rain on the jobsite this morning southeast of Farmington. No idea how much fell, but it rained here for 4 hours straight, heavy at times. I'm hoping my backyard about 30 miles north/northwest of here got some of it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 23, 2024 12:07:09 GMT -6
Sub 900mb hurricane showing up on two of the hurricane models.
HMON and HWRF are CAT 4/CAT 5 weakening some around landfall.
This could get out of control
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 23, 2024 12:21:58 GMT -6
Hurricane models need to have some real world data to go off or they tend to be crazy
There is a recon flight out right now so that data should be inputted into the models for the 00z runs
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 23, 2024 12:40:07 GMT -6
Heavy rains to drought to heavy rains! A theme this warm season! Will we be singing in the dry donut hole on radar, mud or snow this winter? Too early to know for sure, but we all know how it goes around here too well! Either way a wet pattern in Sept and Oct bodes well for a better Dec and Jan in our area!
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Post by amstilost on Sept 23, 2024 12:44:07 GMT -6
Another 7/16" in the rain gauge so that brings my total to 1". Definitely better than nothing. And it only looks like my pond came up an inch from that rain it looks like everything soaked into the ground which is great news.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 23, 2024 12:44:22 GMT -6
Heavy rains to drought to heavy rains! A theme this warm season! Will we be singing in the dry donut hole on radar, mud or snow this winter? Too early to know for sure, but we all know how it goes around here too well! Either way a wet pattern in Sept and Oct bodes well for a better Dec and Jan in our area!Yes it does. Its hard to get good moisture return in winter when you are already in a major drought in September and October into Nov. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 23, 2024 12:46:43 GMT -6
Heavy rains to drought to heavy rains! A theme this warm season! Will we be singing in the dry donut hole on radar, mud or snow this winter? Too early to know for sure, but we all know how it goes around here too well! Either way a wet pattern in Sept and Oct bodes well for a better Dec and Jan in our area!Yes it does. Its hard to get good moisture return in winter when you are already in a major drought in September and October into Nov. Well CFS is showing a cold and wet January February so... There's a chance? Long term thinking does seem to be leading to a solid backhalf winter. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 23, 2024 15:04:34 GMT -6
Helene hasn't been named yet, but probably will tonight or tomorrow morning. HPC has us in the 2" Storm Total zone along it's track and brings it up to Springfield, IL by Saturday.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 23, 2024 17:12:16 GMT -6
I'm up to 2.77 and rising for the day. The yard is a mud pit. And it is absolutely ripping right now. Going to be close to 5 inches for 2 day total after tonight.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 23, 2024 17:24:38 GMT -6
Pretty wild that we could go from severe drought conditions to flooding within a week...we need to watch trends closely with the potential for excessive rainfall from the merging of the tropical remnants with a cut-off upper low.
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 23, 2024 17:48:38 GMT -6
I dont think I have ever seen dust bowl conditions in my yard to a legit swamp so fast. I hope this weekend is only a nice half inch or so in my back yard cause we won't handle 6 plus inches very well. I hope snowman can get some of the more substantial rain.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 23, 2024 18:15:57 GMT -6
We've topped 2" storm total here in Brighton and the rain continues. Looks like we could add more to the tally tomorrow with some scattered showers as the upper low digs in and begins to stall near us.
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Post by tedrick65 on Sept 23, 2024 20:18:22 GMT -6
1.76" in High Ridge, most of which was this evening and 2.98" total for the past two days.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 23, 2024 20:50:08 GMT -6
Helene taking her sweet time developing. Likely won't be named until tomorrow.
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Post by amstilost on Sept 23, 2024 21:38:07 GMT -6
I was surprised I had 1-3/8" in the rain gauge since this last batch got out of here about an hour or so ago. What a good hour and a half or so of just nice rolling thunder during the part of the system. Storm total 2-3/8".đź‘Ťđź‘Ť
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Post by let it snow11 on Sept 23, 2024 22:15:26 GMT -6
I was unable to check my gauge this evening after work because it was raining! A wonderful soaker this evening. I fell asleep on the sofa listening to it. I'll check the total tomorrow.
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Post by bororug on Sept 24, 2024 5:05:15 GMT -6
1.89” yesterday. Storm total = 2.67” of much needed rain in Festus, MO.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Sept 24, 2024 5:50:52 GMT -6
Good Morning! We had a wonderful 2 inch soaking rain here in Silex. Farmers are happy!!
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Sept 24, 2024 6:07:19 GMT -6
Rain gauge shows 3.39 for the two days in Lake St. Louis. Glad we had the rain, the timing was bad since I was in the process of starting dethatching and aerating my lawn for overseeding.
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Post by let it snow11 on Sept 24, 2024 6:12:40 GMT -6
Only .9" in my gauge this morning. Storm total 1.8". Beneficial, but I could use a little more.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 24, 2024 11:06:27 GMT -6
Only .9" in my gauge this morning. Storm total 1.8". Beneficial, but I could use a little more. Looks like it's coming... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 24, 2024 11:23:29 GMT -6
Hurricane models are now showing Helene moving onto the Yucatán peninsula which would considerably delay its strengthening and lead to a weaker overall storm.
Just one model run, but this was the first model suite with full recon data assimilated.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 24, 2024 11:24:53 GMT -6
Only .9" in my gauge this morning. Storm total 1.8". Beneficial, but I could use a little more. Looks like it's coming... Indeed  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 24, 2024 11:53:18 GMT -6
Hurricane models are now showing Helene moving onto the Yucatán peninsula which would considerably delay its strengthening and lead to a weaker overall storm. Just one model run, but this was the first model suite with full recon data assimilated. The low is now very clearly evident on visible satellite, and has drifted to the WSW more than initially modeled. But it is void of any sustained close convection currently. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 24, 2024 14:34:34 GMT -6
Hurricane models are now showing Helene moving onto the Yucatán peninsula which would considerably delay its strengthening and lead to a weaker overall storm. Just one model run, but this was the first model suite with full recon data assimilated. Between possible land interaction and increasing forward speed, this storm might not have a lot of room for rapid deepening. But the Gulf is running pretty warm so the potential for a strong hurricane is there if it can get organized. |
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