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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2024 22:19:45 GMT -6
Wow look at that QLCS spinup entering the W burbs of Chicago! Make the storms stop in Chicago. Absolutely relentless Tomorrow looks nasty up that way as well. Big time wind bag |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jul 14, 2024 23:25:02 GMT -6
Make the storms stop in Chicago. Absolutely relentless Tomorrow looks nasty up that way as well. Big time wind bag 7pm flight to Houston. We all know how that will go |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 15, 2024 13:56:22 GMT -6
I'll be driving back tomorrow... getting there between 4 and 5 pm. What time frame are we looking at for the rain to start on the east side of the river?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 15, 2024 16:16:14 GMT -6
I think we may need more than a Marginal for tomorrow.
The degree of instability, the moderate mid-level westerly flow at 500mb and some of the modeled hodographs. Everything will depend on how much convection develops with/behind/in response to the outflow boundary that may push into our area late tonight... and how that impacts the effective boundary and air mass recovery. Stay tuned.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 15, 2024 17:03:31 GMT -6
98 F is the high for the day.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 15, 2024 19:20:00 GMT -6
If the HRRR is right, it’s going to be wet late tonight and tomorrow morning
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2024 19:50:53 GMT -6
If the HRRR is right, it’s going to be wet late tonight and tomorrow morning That bow up north is trying hard to sag towards the region...CAMs seem to think it'll make it here around midnight with possible backbuilding further W/SW. |
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Post by amstilost on Jul 15, 2024 20:37:41 GMT -6
Intermission at The Muny. Just an awesome breeze has been blowing. Not bad at all.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 15, 2024 20:43:05 GMT -6
Midway
KMDW 160238Z 20012G26KT 10SM SCT029 SCT120 BKN140 OVC200 31/26 A2964 RMK TORNADO B31 5 SW MOV E TORNADO E37 AO2 PK WND 19026/0229 LTG DSNT ALQDS CONS LTGIC DSNT SW-N-NE CB DSNT W-N-NE T03110261
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 15, 2024 20:51:48 GMT -6
Midway KMDW 160238Z 20012G26KT 10SM SCT029 SCT120 BKN140 OVC200 31/26 A2964 RMK TORNADO B31 5 SW MOV E TORNADO E37 AO2 PK WND 19026/0229 LTG DSNT ALQDS CONS LTGIC DSNT SW-N-NE CB DSNT W-N-NE T03110261 Tornado observed at mdw? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 15, 2024 20:57:03 GMT -6
If the HRRR is right, it’s going to be wet late tonight and tomorrow morning That bow up north is trying hard to sag towards the region...CAMs seem to think it'll make it here around midnight with possible backbuilding further W/SW. Radar Trends seem to lining up with this. It's booking southward.
Mowed the lawn this evening, so rain is assured...  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 15, 2024 21:21:34 GMT -6
If the HRRR is right, it’s going to be wet late tonight and tomorrow morning That bow up north is trying hard to sag towards the region...CAMs seem to think it'll make it here around midnight with possible backbuilding further W/SW. Trying.. but the turn may have occurred a bit too far to the east. It's a very messy forecast overnight. The LLJ will try and overrun the southward pushing cold pool... but is it enough to generate more than a few small downpours? HRRR says yes. Our in house IBM model has been emphatically saying yes...but both have been too bullish to this point with the southwest extent of the storms. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 15, 2024 21:25:37 GMT -6
We need a more south/southwest punch in the outflow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2024 21:43:10 GMT -6
Looks to me like warm mid-level temps are putting the kibosh on storm chances along/behind the OFB. The storms behind the cluster dropping SE across E/central IL aren't showing much sign of sagging southward either. Starting to wonder if we'll see much if anything overnight...
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 15, 2024 22:19:30 GMT -6
Anybody win to see twisters tomorrow with Chris?
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 15, 2024 22:20:09 GMT -6
That intense redevelopment south of Peoria where the LLJ is focus makes me think that too BRTN. May increase the severe threat tomorrow
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 15, 2024 22:26:53 GMT -6
Looks to me like warm mid-level temps are putting the kibosh on storm chances along/behind the OFB. The storms behind the cluster dropping SE across E/central IL aren't showing much sign of sagging southward either. Starting to wonder if we'll see much if anything overnight... Ya was just checking the 00z model data. Especially the Hi res NAM and HRRR. Nam wants to keep storms in the forecast overnight. While the lastest HRRR doesn't have much overnight. When earlier it had storms. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 15, 2024 22:29:17 GMT -6
Looks to me like warm mid-level temps are putting the kibosh on storm chances along/behind the OFB. The storms behind the cluster dropping SE across E/central IL aren't showing much sign of sagging southward either. Starting to wonder if we'll see much if anything overnight... Ya was just checking the 00z model data. Especially the Hi res NAM and HRRR. Nam wants to keep storms in the forecast overnight. While the lastest HRRR doesn't have much overnight. When earlier it had storms. Correction. Latest hrrr still has a few isolated storms toward morning. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 15, 2024 23:19:09 GMT -6
That's been some pretty amazing training from Burlington to Champaign. Usually there's some5 gaps between training cells. But this has been a wall of water pretty much all evening. Going to be some crazy rain accumulations out of that. Will also keep the Mississippi levels up for another few weeks.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 16, 2024 3:38:12 GMT -6
430 AM and getting a few sprinkles in far north St. Peters. That line of storms is building to the West in a scattered line as it says south. Will it hold together and continue to do that as it gets closer to the metro area is the question.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 16, 2024 4:53:16 GMT -6
Back to getting skirted in every direction, I guess...*shrug*
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 16, 2024 5:26:52 GMT -6
I'm almost wondering if this evenings activity misses the metro to the south. By then the boundary will be well south.
Other then this scattered activity, this may be all we can get in the metro
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 16, 2024 5:47:07 GMT -6
I'm almost wondering if this evenings activity misses the metro to the south. By then the boundary will be well south. Other then this scattered activity, this may be all we can get in the metro Well the flood watch is south, but it's extremely messy situation so it could be a bit more to the north. Hard to tell with all these boundaries |
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Post by weatherj on Jul 16, 2024 6:31:36 GMT -6
Lots of impassable roads and main street flooding here. Almost 4 inches of rain.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 16, 2024 6:53:51 GMT -6
I really wish I had a rain gauge, but it has been pouring for the most part since before 6am. The areas in the neighborhood that collect rainwater after a multi-inch event have water. Can't tell the level in the ditch behind my house because the plant growth is too tall. Was this event a kinda-surprise event? I don't recall seeing anything on NWS about it. Love it, though.
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Post by REB on Jul 16, 2024 6:58:55 GMT -6
I really wish I had a rain gauge, but it has been pouring for the most part since before 6am. The areas in the neighborhood that collect rainwater after a multi-inch event have water. Can't tell the level in the ditch behind my house because the plant growth is too tall. Was this event a kinda-surprise event? I don't recall seeing anything on NWS about it. Love it, though. Several digital rain gauges on sale on prime day. I'm actually looking for one for my sister for Christmas. 1.99" so far. Just got the code red flood warning. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 16, 2024 6:59:30 GMT -6
Storms finally budged into MBY...that's a crazy wall of water S/SE of the Metro!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 16, 2024 7:03:20 GMT -6
I really wish I had a rain gauge, but it has been pouring for the most part since before 6am. The areas in the neighborhood that collect rainwater after a multi-inch event have water. Can't tell the level in the ditch behind my house because the plant growth is too tall. Was this event a kinda-surprise event? I don't recall seeing anything on NWS about it. Love it, though. Several digital rain gauges on sale on prime day. I'm actually looking for one for my sister for Christmas. 1.99" so far. Just got the code red flood warning. My husband got me a weather station a couple years ago, just need to motivate him to get it mounted. |
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Post by REB on Jul 16, 2024 7:14:40 GMT -6
Several digital rain gauges on sale on prime day. I'm actually looking for one for my sister for Christmas. 1.99" so far. Just got the code red flood warning. My husband got me a weather station a couple years ago, just need to motivate him to get it mounted. Put him to work! |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jul 16, 2024 7:33:23 GMT -6
1.31" this morning. 12.37" for July. Looks juicy for the rest of the day.
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