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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 26, 2024 16:21:28 GMT -6
And there it is... CAT 4
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 26, 2024 16:43:25 GMT -6
Nope, ain't gonna happen, it ingested a slug of dry air. Still a bad storm with crazy rain over a massive area and storm surge. Ya looks like dry air is trying to wrap back into the core from the south. I still think it can get to a low end category 3 before landfall but not sure about more than that. Good to know I’m still trash at forecasting tropical weather |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2024 16:51:16 GMT -6
Satellite presentation is looking extremely healthy right now, resembling some classics!
This is why that area of origin (western Caribbean) is so problematic. They explode in the gulf and don’t have time to go through a weakening cycle before hitting land. The long track ones go through several cycles so you’re just at the mercy of where it is in that cycle when it comes ashore which often times is in decline. In this situation you have nothing but explosive strengthening.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 26, 2024 17:07:43 GMT -6
This is looking like a hurricane Micheal …. Strengthening right up to landfall
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 26, 2024 17:07:47 GMT -6
Ya looks like dry air is trying to wrap back into the core from the south. I still think it can get to a low end category 3 before landfall but not sure about more than that. Good to know I’m still trash at forecasting tropical weather Join the club...lol |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 26, 2024 17:08:21 GMT -6
Hurricane Hunters just found 160mph at 4k feet in the north eye wall.
If that's not in a mesovortex... that would reduce to around 145 mph or so at the surface. But they may not push that far just yet.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 26, 2024 17:10:51 GMT -6
Good to know I’m still trash at forecasting tropical weather Join the club...lol Forecasting weather humbles many people, many times. I have to say, that as I watch this unfold... my heart is sinking and gut is aching. Not just because of landfall impacts... but what happens deeper inland. The flooding and tree damage in the Appalachians is going to be unreal. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 26, 2024 17:16:21 GMT -6
Recon supports 942 mb now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 26, 2024 17:45:34 GMT -6
I wonder how much of that is attenuation through the intense convection in eastern eyewall relative to the Tampa radar? That's very possible...I wish the Navy TC site still had up-to-date microwave data |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 26, 2024 17:55:31 GMT -6
Seems like a Brief jump to Cat 5 right on landfall isn't out of the question. Geez. Lightning intense around it's center.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2024 18:42:01 GMT -6
No time to get to 5. About a 6 hour lag in its organization is the difference between Helene and Michael.
That’s one hell of a right front quadrant though!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 26, 2024 19:05:13 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 26, 2024 19:08:02 GMT -6
Wow 140 mph sustained now. I am praying for the Florida coast, what a Huge Storm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 26, 2024 19:26:58 GMT -6
The lightning in the eyewall has just exploded in the last thirty minutes.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 26, 2024 19:43:10 GMT -6
Record surge heights are being reported in Tampa Bay and they aren't even in the high risk zone. I don't know where it will be but some unlucky (and hopefully sparsely populated) stretch of shoreline is going to experience epic surge heights.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 26, 2024 20:09:48 GMT -6
Pressure down to 939 …… what a beast
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 26, 2024 20:40:13 GMT -6
Pretty Florida has a solid electrical grid. Taking the Eastern eye like a champ so far
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 26, 2024 21:22:43 GMT -6
Landfall 140 mph strong cat 4. Incredible strength.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 26, 2024 21:26:52 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 27, 2024 7:09:56 GMT -6
.92 inches already ….. very efficient rain maker
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Post by dschreib on Sept 27, 2024 7:18:57 GMT -6
.92 inches already ….. very efficient rain maker 1.17" up the road, according to Swingset Davis.
Started around 9-9:30 last night, I think. I was in bed watching TWC. Haven't watched much of that lately. Found out last night that Mike Seidel moved over to the Fox weather station. Quick Google search said he was let go by TWC. Always liked him.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 27, 2024 7:20:39 GMT -6
.54 so far in Belleville.
Clouds are moving very fast.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 27, 2024 8:48:22 GMT -6
Pre-landfall damage estimates went as high $15 billion in insured losses. It'll be a few days before the post-landfall damage estimates start rolling in, but I think it is safe assume this is going to be very costly and will put further pressure on the already fragile insurance market in the southeast.
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Post by REB on Sept 27, 2024 8:59:06 GMT -6
.88" and counting.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 27, 2024 9:36:43 GMT -6
Once again, the AIFS did an amazing job with Helene. It sniffed out what would become Helene in the long range and locked in on a Florida big bend landfall several days out and never wavered. I’ll be paying a lot of attention to the AIFS this winter.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 27, 2024 9:50:56 GMT -6
Once again, the AIFS did an amazing job with Helene. It sniffed out what would become Helene in the long range and locked in on a Florida big bend landfall several days out and never wavered. I’ll be paying a lot of attention to the AIFS this winter. Storm2k board mets were praising the icon |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 27, 2024 9:54:00 GMT -6
.92 inches already ….. very efficient rain maker 1.17" up the road, according to Swingset Davis.
Started around 9-9:30 last night, I think. I was in bed watching TWC. Haven't watched much of that lately. Found out last night that Mike Seidel moved over to the Fox weather station. Quick Google search said he was let go by TWC. Always liked him.
It's only been in the last couple of months that he joined Fox Weather |
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Post by mchafin on Sept 27, 2024 10:34:07 GMT -6
Some of the aerial footage I’ve seen shows the devastation caused by the storm surge. Just looking at it gives me anxiety: where do you even start to clean up??
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 27, 2024 11:01:16 GMT -6
The NHC is reporting 15+ feet of surge between Horseshoe Beach and Steinhatchee.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 27, 2024 13:18:10 GMT -6
My mom lives in Spartanburg SC and the damage there is unbelievable….. she probably has 10 -15 trees down on her 1/2 mile street
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