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Post by bdgwx on Oct 8, 2024 13:31:56 GMT -6
As a point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 had a total energy of 12 TJ. Milton is forecast to increase to 62 TJ. Current forecast track and intensity suggest the potential of another $100 billion disaster could be in the making here. Where do you find total kinetic energy forecast at? Use the NHC energy calculator here in combination with the official NHC Forecast Advisory ( example). Eye diameter is a decent proxy for radius of maximum wind (RMW). As an alternative to the official NHC products you can use the multiplatform wind field product from NOAA. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 13:40:22 GMT -6
Looks like extrapolated pressure down to 899mb. Waiting on dropsonde to confirm... Edit: Flight level winds remained high through the eye pass. Not sure they actually got to the middle. Maybe not surprising with such a miniscule eye. Forgot to mention. I followed up on this last night after seeing the successful eye drop on this pass. The "high density" observations get reported every 30 seconds. At 250 knots that's a distance of 2nm. So they didn't miss the eye, it's just the data was too sparse to reflect the full transit of the 4nm eye. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 8, 2024 14:59:09 GMT -6
There he is back to a 5, 918 mb.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 8, 2024 15:04:24 GMT -6
NHC has shifted the cone notably further south on the latest update
Good news for Tampa, but bad news for communities like Sarasota and Cape Coral
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Post by dschreib on Oct 8, 2024 15:21:37 GMT -6
1. Shows how little of an effect shear can have on something so powerful.
2. That was a heckuva wobble to the SE.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 8, 2024 15:22:22 GMT -6
Wow. Just saw a post that pressure tanked to 902. Havent confirmed that though
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 15:22:46 GMT -6
Extrapolated pressure on the latest recon pass was quite low...902mb.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 8, 2024 15:26:00 GMT -6
1. Shows how little of an effect shear can have on something so powerful. 2. That was a heckuva wobble to the SE. It isn’t having to fight off much shear yet, only a few knots. The shear will really ramp up tomorrow when it will increase to over 30kts. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 15:35:30 GMT -6
Dropsonde with 908mb and 34kt wind. Typically that wouuld be about 905mb.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 8, 2024 15:50:52 GMT -6
18z GFS just a bit west of previous run with track right into the Tampa Bay. Same with ICON.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 8, 2024 16:41:30 GMT -6
We have seen these things get right near making landfall, then literally fight for their lives and parallel the coast. I'm wondering if Milton will do that and go a bit further north. I still think Tampa Bay itself is a good spot. Even with the south wobbles
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 8, 2024 17:05:44 GMT -6
Hurricane models have Milton making landfall as a strong Cat3 or CAT4 over or just north of Tampa Bay with globals a bit south of that. Terrible situation developing for much of the Gulf coast/central Florida as it looks like significant weakening won't occur quickly enough to prevent a catastrophic surge.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 8, 2024 18:32:03 GMT -6
Hurricane models have Milton making landfall as a strong Cat3 or CAT4 over or just north of Tampa Bay with globals a bit south of that. Terrible situation developing for much of the Gulf coast/central Florida as it looks like significant weakening won't occur quickly enough to prevent a catastrophic surge. You really could not draw up a worse case scenario that could be much worse than this. There are only a few times I've come into the hours before an event and truly had a depressing, sinking feeling. It is rare to have an event THAT bad. But to have two within two weeks... I'm overwhelmed. My heart breaks for everyone and everything that will be lost. I do have a glimmer of hope... that many many people did get the hell out of dodge! I pray it is enough to significantly reduce the death toll. Nothing we can do about the prolific damage to be done... but if lives have been saved (an impossible number to calculate) then there is something positive to take from this. I'm praying that is the case. |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 8, 2024 18:38:30 GMT -6
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Post by amstilost on Oct 8, 2024 19:41:09 GMT -6
That's a heck of a video of the flight, quite bumpy.
I would think that large batch of thunderstorms right in front of Milton would turn up the water some and at least mix it up some to cool it off a little. Sure hope it does or hopefully, landfall timing has it cycled down some. What a beast.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 8, 2024 20:10:45 GMT -6
That's a heck of a video of the flight, quite bumpy. I would think that large batch of thunderstorms right in front of Milton would turn up the water some and at least mix it up some to cool it off a little. Sure hope it does or hopefully, landfall timing has it cycled down some. What a beast. Can't imagine trying to pilot a plane in that. Must take nerves of steel |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 8, 2024 20:52:52 GMT -6
Phoenix broke the all time United States record for the most consecutive daily record high temperatures...15. This breaks the old record of 14 at Burlington, IA set in 1936.
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 8, 2024 21:15:02 GMT -6
An increasingly large urban area in a desert - surprise
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Post by mchafin on Oct 8, 2024 21:23:40 GMT -6
Hurricane models have Milton making landfall as a strong Cat3 or CAT4 over or just north of Tampa Bay with globals a bit south of that. Terrible situation developing for much of the Gulf coast/central Florida as it looks like significant weakening won't occur quickly enough to prevent a catastrophic surge. You really could not draw up a worse case scenario that could be much worse than this. There are only a few times I've come into the hours before an event and truly had a depressing, sinking feeling. It is rare to have an event THAT bad. But to have two within two weeks... I'm overwhelmed. My heart breaks for everyone and everything that will be lost. I do have a glimmer of hope... that many many people did get the hell out of dodge! I pray it is enough to significantly reduce the death toll. Nothing we can do about the prolific damage to be done... but if lives have been saved (an impossible number to calculate) then there is something positive to take from this. I'm praying that is the case. I know someone who lives 7 miles from the coast in Clearwater and she’s not leaving. It’s too chaotic to evacuate she said. They’ll be spared from the storm surge but will experience hurricane conditions. And probably be out of power / supplies for days. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2024 5:10:38 GMT -6
Milton is looking a bit ragged this morning with an asymmetrical and shrouded eye but still a very intense hurricane. Hopefully the shear starts to weaken it some today.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 9, 2024 6:46:49 GMT -6
Shear is starting to take its toll on Milton this morning.
The 06z hurricane models all have a landfall just south of Tampa Bay in the Bradenton-Sarasota area
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 9, 2024 7:33:35 GMT -6
Yea he's getting torn apart this morning. A mid range cat 3 at landfall seems likely at this rate.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 9, 2024 8:13:59 GMT -6
Looks like a tornado outbreak is underway in the right front quadrant of Milton.
The SPC has issued a 10% hatched tornado risk for parts of Florida.
I believe this is the first hatched tornado risk they have ever issued for a land falling tropical cyclone
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 9, 2024 8:28:45 GMT -6
It's not just shear
And I wouldn't say it's getting torn apart. There's another eyewall replacement happening. This does make the storm more susceptible to shear and dry air until it can rebuild a closed eyewall..if it does. Right now it's open on the south and west sides.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 9, 2024 9:33:00 GMT -6
There are some nast supercells lifting north across southern Florida.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 9, 2024 9:35:52 GMT -6
NWS Miami just shared this photo of a tornado in progress. Looks like something straight out of the plains in spring.  |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 9, 2024 9:39:59 GMT -6
Going to be a lot of embedded supercells and possible tornadoes in that feeder band moving onto land now too. Maybe not quite as large and intense as the discrete supercells, but still...
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 9, 2024 9:45:53 GMT -6
Milton's IKE has increased 47 TJ.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 9, 2024 9:57:57 GMT -6
Unless my eyes are deceiving me, and they probably are, Milton looks just a little bit better on the northern side in IR satellite the last 30 minutes or so. Maybe starting to feel more of the influence of the right entrance region of the SE CONUS ULJ
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2024 11:30:09 GMT -6
Unless my eyes are deceiving me, and they probably are, Milton looks just a little bit better on the northern side in IR satellite the last 30 minutes or so. Maybe starting to feel more of the influence of the right entrance region of the SE CONUS ULJ I'm worried that the extra ventilation upstairs from the RER dynamics is going to slow the weakening process greatly...hurricane models seem locked in around 950-955mb at landfall which is still a powerful hurricane. Luckily it looks to come ashore S of Tampa Bay but many densely populated areas along the coast will take a catastrophic hit from surge and wind, unlike Helena. |
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