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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 9, 2024 12:10:04 GMT -6
Latest NHC update has Milton up to 944mb and max winds at 130 mph
Landfall at 955-960mb looks like a good bet
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Post by dschreib on Oct 9, 2024 12:41:21 GMT -6
The tornado outbreak is unreal. Twins on radar around Yeehaw Junction.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2024 12:57:42 GMT -6
The tornado outbreak is unreal. Twins on radar around Yeehaw Junction. Is that where Florida Man lives? |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 9, 2024 12:58:06 GMT -6
This was an earlier screenshot.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 9, 2024 13:17:21 GMT -6
I may be wrong... but it looks like it is trending north into the Bay.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 9, 2024 13:18:13 GMT -6
I may be wrong... but it looks like it is trending north into the Bay. I thought it took a pretty significant wobble north of the forecast track this morning. |
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Post by amstilost on Oct 9, 2024 14:30:46 GMT -6
I just seen the latest update and glad to see it's up to 950 millibar and down to 125 wind speed but............
Looking at the latest water vapor imagery anyway it looks like it's starting to get itself together in the last frame of the satellite with a little eye and higher topped clouds completely encircling the eye. Or, is looking at water vapor the wrong thing to do?🤪
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Oct 9, 2024 14:35:59 GMT -6
Some leftward wobbles in the last couple of hours has me thinking just south of Tampa for the center…but he better start the eastward jog really soon.
Tampa is going to get the worst of the winds it seems though, but maybe not the worst of the surge. Bad either way, but both would be worst case
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2024 14:38:02 GMT -6
Looking like a landfall near Sarasota...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 9, 2024 15:30:23 GMT -6
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Oct 9, 2024 16:54:41 GMT -6
Looking like a Venice landfall now...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 9, 2024 18:17:36 GMT -6
Looks like landfall with be just south of Sarasota
Btw, the AIFS nailed the landfall location again
It’s been showing a landfall just south of Tampa going back several days
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 9, 2024 19:25:21 GMT -6
Just saw video from inside the eye. Dead calm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2024 19:33:50 GMT -6
Tampa getting absolutely blasted by nearly stationary 55dbz+ returns and 100mph+ winds...rainfall estimates already in the double digits near the coast
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 9, 2024 19:36:53 GMT -6
Tampa getting absolutely blasted by nearly stationary 55dbz+ returns and 100mph+ winds...rainfall estimates already in the double digits near the coast Water levels in the Bay have been crashing as the water gets blown out. But once winds come around... they should still get a surge. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Oct 9, 2024 19:44:30 GMT -6
I can confirm it's little rainy in Tampa. lol.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 10, 2024 7:44:35 GMT -6
Any insight on the recent solar storm and the potential Aurora tonight?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 10, 2024 8:02:45 GMT -6
Any insight on the recent solar storm and the potential Aurora tonight? SWPC has a G4 watch in effect and mentions a G5 is possible. I think we have a good shot to see them and maybe even overhead like back in May |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2024 8:06:54 GMT -6
Any insight on the recent solar storm and the potential Aurora tonight? SWPC has a G4 watch in effect and mentions a G5 is possible. I think we have a good shot to see them and maybe even overhead like back in May
Link to a map posted by a Meteorologist somewhere in the Midwest. Says Visible on the Northern Horizon (Use phones/Cameras) and of course get away from city lights! But, by Hannibal and Springfield they're on the border of overhead, so its close.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2024 10:12:27 GMT -6
The CME causing Auroras this evening/tonight has hit, already kicking up to G1 with G4 still possible later on in the CME's wake.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 10, 2024 12:17:12 GMT -6
Looks like at least one more potential hurricane over the next couple weeks in the Gulf.
The pattern is getting that wavy look, so I could see something getting trapped down there for a while.
Also, might have a shot at a Snowicane given the cold trying to meet up with it somewhere.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2024 13:04:34 GMT -6
G4 Geo-Magnetic Storm is now underway. Electric currents are reaching the ground at about 25% of the Quebec 1989 Solar Storm, Power outages are unlikely. Still could briefly reach G5 (the highest category) as the afternoon/evening progresses in the CME's wake.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 10, 2024 17:12:23 GMT -6
Aurora chances look very favorable tonight
I’d recommend everyone go out after sunset and look northward
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 10, 2024 17:42:43 GMT -6
Yeah lots of great pics coming from the east coast
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 10, 2024 17:58:02 GMT -6
Just saw some awesome pictures from inside city lights of Boston!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2024 17:58:06 GMT -6
Storm has escalated to G5! Auroras here are almost a certainty here unless it peters out but it's expected to last much of the night in fits and starts!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 10, 2024 18:08:55 GMT -6
Looks like the blocking is going to break down later next week as a +AO/NAO develops and models are showing an eastern ridge/western trof pattern which looks fairly active towards D10. Some model runs like the EC have the look of a severe weather setup with a sustained return flow from the Gulf and a potent trof ejection. It's getting to be that time of year when severe weather ramps up at times so we may need to watch that if those trends continue.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2024 18:11:52 GMT -6
Looks like the blocking is going to break down later next week as a +AO/NAO develops and models are showing an eastern ridge/western trof pattern which looks fairly active towards D10. Some model runs like the EC have the look of a severe weather setup with a sustained return flow from the Gulf and a potent trof ejection. It's getting to be that time of year when severe weather ramps up at times so we may need to watch that if those trends continue. Was thinking Halloween time into November for getting more active. Glad we have this seemingly never ending dome when space is active with flares, auroras, and comets! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 10, 2024 18:17:46 GMT -6
And eclipses...we've definitely lucked out lately with the celestial events which is rare for here typically.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2024 18:19:07 GMT -6
Any local spotting of Auroras yet? Dark enough?
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