|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 21, 2024 15:26:26 GMT -6
Does it matter that it’s 2024? And I was simply asking a question. For fun. You think weather is fun? Let me show you how fun weather is! Channeling Coach Boone from “Remember the Titans” |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Oct 21, 2024 17:51:54 GMT -6
In other news, seems like the leaves went from green to dust covered and brownish-grey to gone from a lot of the trees the last week or two. A few colors around, but not much.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 21, 2024 21:31:47 GMT -6
I have seen no catapillars this year so far. Normally, by now I see them everywhere.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 22, 2024 4:55:38 GMT -6
What a surprise. This mornings rain is missing us to the north.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 22, 2024 5:42:53 GMT -6
What a surprise. This mornings rain is missing us to the north. Pretty much what was forecast. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Oct 22, 2024 7:41:44 GMT -6
In case you missed it, and you probably did because everybody missed it and nobody saw it coming, Oscar became the smallest hurricane observed in the period of record. The NHC officially classified it as a category 1, but some people are suggesting it was actually a category 3.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Oct 22, 2024 8:25:43 GMT -6
In case you missed it, and you probably did because everybody missed it and nobody saw it coming, Oscar became the smallest hurricane observed in the period of record. The NHC officially classified it as a category 1, but some people are suggesting it was actually a category 3. I kinda missed Nadine, too. One of those 'knew it was going to form, but the track was unappealing'...sort of like the fish storms. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 22, 2024 11:16:58 GMT -6
I'm seeing a trend here where the models show decent rain chances in the 8-10d frame, then lose it as we get closer. Not good and probably a preview of winter.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Oct 22, 2024 12:20:29 GMT -6
Yes we will have some southern storm systems and WNW systems, but will they hit us each time...probably not! My gut is telling me we will have to reply on clippers for a good part of this winter! And we all know how that ends up! 😂😊
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2024 16:15:59 GMT -6
I'm seeing a trend here where the models show decent rain chances in the 8-10d frame, then lose it as we get closer. Not good and probably a preview of winter. I'm getting cold and dry vibes for this winter again...last year it ended up being mostly dry and mild outside of a few quick shots of cold. We need a big shake up of the large-scale pattern to get any real weather...the S stream has taken a long vacation along with Gulf moisture. |
|
|
|
Post by chowderhead54 on Oct 22, 2024 16:48:42 GMT -6
I'm seeing a trend here where the models show decent rain chances in the 8-10d frame, then lose it as we get closer. Not good and probably a preview of winter. I'm getting cold and dry vibes for this winter again...last year it ended up being mostly dry and mild outside of a few quick shots of cold. We need a big shake up of the large-scale pattern to get any real weather...the S stream has taken a long vacation along with Gulf moisture. FWIW...which is really not much but the 12z CFS has us pretty active and progressively colder from 11/2 and on until end of its run...like I said fun to look at but will it materialize? I'm seeing signs of an EPO flip and a.PNA flip plus the MJO into 7,8, even 1 from 5th of Nov onward so...we can only wish, hope, cross fingers..toes etc.. I'm ready..weather is great but I had surgery back in September so I can't really enjoy it..bring on Winter Please..I'm asking nicely.... |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 23, 2024 13:41:37 GMT -6
Definitely looks active to close out the month with troughing forming over the western US.
Looks like that will be followed by a cool spell over the eastern US for the first week of November.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 23, 2024 16:00:43 GMT -6
Definitely looks active to close out the month with troughing forming over the western US. Looks like that will be followed by a cool spell over the eastern US for the first week of November. Looking at the pattern next week, it's remarkable to watch several surface lows eject out across the Plains with little to to precip in tow. But by the later half of the week, Gulf moisture finally builds in and it looks fairly rainy around Halloween across the region with the slow moving front oozing through. The pattern has favored stronger ridging across the E though...so that could push the rain further N/NW than forecast and delay the boundary. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 23, 2024 20:22:15 GMT -6
It's just trends in model world... but I'm seeing more hints at cut-offs or closed lows trying to develop in the lower Mississippi Valley and GOM... with sharp northern tracks... cutters. Might be the season of strong lows cutting north. But where? Ohio Valley? East Coast? Mississippi Valley? Nowhere? lol. Just something to chew on. It could be a bad case of wishcasting too.
|
|
|
|
Post by yypc on Oct 23, 2024 20:42:01 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2024 7:06:43 GMT -6
The gfs keeps showing a hurricane around Election Day.
6z gfs is basically a worst case scenario from a timing and geographical impact.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 24, 2024 11:15:58 GMT -6
Latest drought monitor is a doozy  |
|
|
|
Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 24, 2024 12:23:40 GMT -6
drought conditions showing up anywhere near eastern Tennessee right now is just wild.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2024 12:29:01 GMT -6
Latest drought monitor is a doozy Lots of rain showing up in the region on the 12z ggem and gfs. I’m sure some will be posting about flooding in no time. Seems we never achieve hemostasis |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2024 16:15:44 GMT -6
"Abnormally dry"...lol
It hasn't rained for almost a month straight!
|
|
|
|
Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Oct 24, 2024 17:53:44 GMT -6
"Abnormally dry"...lol It hasn't rained for almost a month straight! Yeah the quick storm that moved through Moberly early Tuesday morning (I think that’s when it happened it has been a long week) didn’t help a whole lot. |
|
|
|
Post by tedrick65 on Oct 24, 2024 19:14:38 GMT -6
Down at the Lake (Horseshoe Bend area)... it's gone from breezy to quite windy out of the SE in the last hour. Haven't had access to models today, so I'm wondering about the fate of that line of storms in E Kansas and NW Mo.
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 24, 2024 20:16:45 GMT -6
drought conditions showing up anywhere near eastern Tennessee right now is just wild. The Helene path is quite clear on that map. |
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 24, 2024 20:18:50 GMT -6
It's just trends in model world... but I'm seeing more hints at cut-offs or closed lows trying to develop in the lower Mississippi Valley and GOM... with sharp northern tracks... cutters. Might be the season of strong lows cutting north. But where? Ohio Valley? East Coast? Mississippi Valley? Nowhere? lol. Just something to chew on. It could be a bad case of wishcasting too. I saw a map timmer posted of the potential low track next week and I had the same thought. Obviously not going to snow next week, but it's an important low to follow |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 24, 2024 20:57:53 GMT -6
Those cells around Kansas City are really packing a wallop!
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Oct 25, 2024 6:46:45 GMT -6
.01 in the gauge. Enough to end the streak at 27 days without rain, but not really
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 25, 2024 7:30:52 GMT -6
Quick shower last evening and a little soaker this AM...nothing that will put a dent in this stubborn drought but nice to see some liquid falling from the sky.
We'll see how that rainy stretch trends for later next week.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Oct 25, 2024 7:38:46 GMT -6
I was quite surprised to be awakened by house shaking thunder earlier this morning. I just enjoyed the 8-10 rumbles and quick shot of rain. Could use some more please.
|
|
twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
|
Post by twocat on Oct 25, 2024 8:12:01 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete reports.05"
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Oct 25, 2024 8:14:08 GMT -6
It's going to come down to Halloween as to whether October will finish with rain or not. The NWS says rain is likely so we'll see.
|
|
