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Post by weathermom on Nov 2, 2024 9:24:09 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Nov 2, 2024 9:30:49 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!! Hope you have a great day, and weekend!
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socotpt
Weather Weenie
South County near 255 & Telegraph
Posts: 44
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Post by socotpt on Nov 2, 2024 10:29:40 GMT -6
Happy Birthday, Chris!!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2024 10:53:42 GMT -6
Springtime like weather pattern really being modeled for the next 10 plus days. Should knock the hell out of the drought.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 2, 2024 11:00:34 GMT -6
meh
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 2, 2024 11:58:20 GMT -6
November is the new May
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 2, 2024 12:12:17 GMT -6
Last time I remember it being this kind of pattern in late October and first half of November was 2013. I only remember because that was the year of the tornado outbreak (Washington, IL being the worst). There was nothing like being in a deer stand with 80 degrees and 50 mph wind! As for the rest of that winter well we all know how that went! Not saying that’s going to happen but I’m a firm believer in that you don’t want to dump your cold in October and November.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 2, 2024 12:32:41 GMT -6
This next few days will be an interesting study in model performance that may have some clues to how guidance will handle winter weather this year. The NAM is much further NW than any other model. The concensus of all the ensembles is emphatic the axis of heaviest rain will be from OK into central and northeast MO. I'd bet the NAM is onto something...the SE ridge is a behemoth this fall |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 2, 2024 15:22:23 GMT -6
While all eyes are focused on the Caribbean for tropical development... TS Patty pops up out of nowhere in the northeast Atlantic... heading for Spain! Meanwhile... rain is on the way for us. I'm thinking 1-3 inches for a multi day total... with higher amounts possible to the west. I don't know about the whole of the country but parts of Spain have already been hit with flooding similar to what Helene did to North Carolina. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Nov 2, 2024 17:06:10 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Chris!!
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Nov 2, 2024 18:25:41 GMT -6
Happiest of Birthdays to you Chris!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 2, 2024 20:04:34 GMT -6
I definitely don't want any of those rainfall totals being depicted by the GFS through Wednesday - some parts of western mo progged to get 10+ inches. Locally, it seems like Montgomery and Warren Counties stand the best chance of 5+ totals. The NAM and Euro have those totals half of what GFS has. The wording 1 to 3 inches, more to the west seems to agree with model qpfs, IMO.
Long range, Somebody mentioned winter of 2013....that has come up several times in my various readings. Even without that, I've started wondering if this might be a winter dud. On one hand I read that the polar vortex was weak in October, on the other hand I read that the siberian snow cover was well below normal. Talk about mixed signals. I recollect in my past mild and wet Novembers tend to lead to cold and stormy winters. After this system, we have another on the heels, so it could very well be a wet November. I'm not feeling a reinstantiation of drought conditions in November. flip a coin.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 2, 2024 23:19:57 GMT -6
Happy belated birthday Chris! 🎉😊
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2024 4:14:46 GMT -6
Thank you all for the birthday wishes!
It was a wild night in OK... late night damaging tornadoes around OKC metro and flash flooding.
I think rain here today will be more miss than hit. The better shot at rain will come Monday into Tuesday.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2024 5:41:24 GMT -6
There is a disturbing new trend in the hires IBM graf modeling that shifts the heavy axis of rain the next two days further southeast over the heart of our area with a max band approaching 10 inches right along I-44! I need to evaluate this closely. The push of the rain cooled air from this morning's MCS may realign the low level boundary and support this general idea. So I cannot rule it out.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2024 5:56:05 GMT -6
The HRRR is showing a similar trend, although not as prolific.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 3, 2024 5:57:06 GMT -6
I'm reminded of the November in the late 70s when Times Beach was tested for dioxin. About the time they figured out the stuff was everywhere we had a mongo rain system that sent the Meramac into record flood. First time I ever saw an interstate closed by flooding when I-44 went under at 141.
Let's hope we don't get an encore this November.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 3, 2024 7:48:16 GMT -6
that was early december 1982. was the flood of record on meramec and bourbeuse until late dec 2015
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 3, 2024 8:03:00 GMT -6
Models come out at a reasonable hour again!
One step closer to snow
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2024 9:02:55 GMT -6
Some pretty incredible tornado damage from overnight tornadoed in southeast OKC metro.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 3, 2024 9:45:44 GMT -6
Some pretty incredible tornado damage from overnight tornadoed in southeast OKC metro. Was watching some on YouTube. Devastating. What I couldn't tell is how widespread it is. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 3, 2024 10:04:24 GMT -6
Some pretty incredible tornado damage from overnight tornadoed in southeast OKC metro. I believe a couple of the tornadoes in OKC went unwarned last light. I know some offices are having staffing issues, but that’s tough. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2024 10:41:28 GMT -6
Im seeing a lot of roof failures, then minimal tree damage nearby in the path. Makes you wondee if there were some building issues in some places. Not trying to diminish the impact of the event... just something I noticed.
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Post by amstilost on Nov 3, 2024 11:12:43 GMT -6
Happy Belated Birthday Chris,
Sitting in our hunting blind with our granddaughter for Early Youth Season. Just a tad warm and windy 5-1/2 miles west of De Soto. Just a few drops of rain so far today.
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 3, 2024 11:31:13 GMT -6
Happy belated Birthday, Chris!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 3, 2024 11:31:45 GMT -6
Seems like many of the operational models have increased rainfall totals - looks like wagons east! models print out qpfs that I've seen on the western fringes of the metro area anywhere from 2 to 6 inches. There's one outlier that shifts the heaviest axis of rain even further east, sparing the westplex. Most concern I have at this point are areas such as Montgomery, Warren, Washington, and St. Charles counties. I personally think a flash flood watch has to be a topic of conversation with the pros attm.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2024 11:38:21 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 3, 2024 11:44:58 GMT -6
I still suspect the stout SE ridge is going to keep the higher totals W of the Metro but significant rainfall is looking like a lock for most of the region. The low soil moisture should be able to handle this event fairly well but a few spots may see some runoff and creek rises, probably favoring Tuesday for that.
It's pretty remarkable to see models showing the 0*C line completely absent from the lower 48 by mid-November. This mild stretch shows no signs of breaking down any time soon...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 3, 2024 11:52:14 GMT -6
thanks for posting that Chris! South and east trends are alive. Very concerned about some of those rainfall totals for sure. My non scientific gut seems to be telling me a compromise between earlier runs and the sudden east shift, may put the axis of heaviest rains about 30 to 50 miles west, hence my concerns about the aforementioned counties I earlier posted. Please keep us abreast of your thoughts!
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Post by jeepers on Nov 3, 2024 14:11:58 GMT -6
Happy Belated Birthday, Chris! 🎉🎉🎉
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