|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 3, 2024 14:28:39 GMT -6
Latest NBM output through Wednesday morning. Definitely think flooding will be an issue across the SW counties.  |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2024 14:30:37 GMT -6
The latest RAP runs have also been bullish on southeast and east central Missouri. The 19z run has 3-4 inches in metro STL by 10am tomorrow!
The IBM Graf goes on after the AM rain tomorrow to produce a string of supercells ahead of the main line of storms that track right up I-44 between 5pm and 7pm.
Looking at the current set-up and positioning of the effective boundary and how things have played out today, I believe the southeast displacement of the CAMS is more correct than the northwest diplacement of the globals. The CAMS seem to be initializing and capturing the current state of the atmosphere better. They may be a little too generous on rainfall, but then again... maybe not. If the cooling effect/push to the east/southeast of last night's MCS gets balanced against the westward push of the SE ridge, that could lead the active boundary to remain nearly stationary near where it is now... and that would focus the heavy rain in/near the zone highlighted by IBM Graf, HRRR and the RAP. The IBM has historically done very well once it latches on to one of these set-ups... and with the rather emphatic support of the HRRR and RAP... it's difficult to argue against the trend. I expect widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals tonight alone... with another 1-3 possible tomorrow and tomorrow night.
I could see the NWS holding off on FF Watch until after the 00z runs. But I could also see them hoisting a watch for some of the southern viewing area counties for tonight...and wait on expanding north if necessary for tomorrow. Either way... this episode of drought will be over after Tuesday.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 3, 2024 16:09:22 GMT -6
Or they may not issue anything.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Nov 3, 2024 20:04:59 GMT -6
Can we please get this stretch of upcoming wet weather in 2ish months with some cold air? I've lost count this year regarding how many episodes of drought and flooding we've seen this year. I like that phrase Chris, this episode of drought is over! Just a reminder that there's not much considered normal when talking about day to day weather. The atmosphere keeps us in the classroom learning with each new weather system.  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 4, 2024 4:34:38 GMT -6
Looks like that eastward push from mesoscale processes has panned out, Chris...heaviest totals so far pretty well straddle 44 with 2-3" across the SW counties.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 4, 2024 5:06:54 GMT -6
.28" before midnight. 1.22" since, in my part of Mascoutah.
|
|
|
|
Post by bororug on Nov 4, 2024 6:02:44 GMT -6
2.03” so far in Festus, MO.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 6:07:36 GMT -6
Swingset Davis reporting 2.26” as of 6am north of Marissa.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 4, 2024 6:35:23 GMT -6
Swingset Davis reporting 2.26” as of 6am north of Marissa. I am at 2.13….. this drought is over ….. 3 inches since Thursday |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Nov 4, 2024 7:11:55 GMT -6
1.21” since midnight. 1.86” total
|
|
twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
|
Post by twocat on Nov 4, 2024 8:38:14 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete is pleased to report 1.67" of much needed rain!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by ElburnDave on Nov 4, 2024 8:39:05 GMT -6
Nearly 8 1/2" since yesterday 4 miles SE of Farmington as reported by my brother. Still raining.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Nov 4, 2024 8:42:29 GMT -6
It is feast or famine around here lately. Anyway, the number of moving parts that have to be tracked in this pattern is usually high right now. We'll have to keep an eye on TD #18 (Rafael) as well and how it interacts with the next rainmaker coming up this weekend.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 4, 2024 8:42:51 GMT -6
Tons of minor street flooding In Sparta…… I’m assuming the leaves are blocking the storm drains
|
|
|
|
Post by sgdragons on Nov 4, 2024 9:12:37 GMT -6
Guess I missed the part of where I needed to start building my boat. A lot of flooding down here. My mom is at our place down near Clearwater and said she dumped the gauge this AM from the rain over night.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 9:21:50 GMT -6
Up to 4.29” in Marissa. Lots of runoff—good for the creeks and rivers. Babysitting duties in Cape today  |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 9:23:13 GMT -6
Tons of minor street flooding In Sparta…… I’m assuming the leaves are blocking the storm drains Yes, and probably the corn stalks by Shirwin Farm in New Athens. Water across the road there. |
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 9:25:31 GMT -6
And still pouring at the homestead, according to the radar and Swingset Davis.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 4, 2024 9:44:01 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by sgdragons on Nov 4, 2024 9:59:12 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by sgdragons on Nov 4, 2024 10:01:21 GMT -6
Tried to figure out how to post that, co-teacher of mine took that video behind the school. That is the North Gabouri Creek. Highest I have seen it in some time.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 4, 2024 10:18:59 GMT -6
It is feast or famine around here lately. Anyway, the number of moving parts that have to be tracked in this pattern is usually high right now. We'll have to keep an eye on TD #18 (Rafael) as well and how it interacts with the next rainmaker coming up this weekend. Wouldn't be a bit unusual for a tropical system to get in to this area this late in the year? |
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 4, 2024 11:42:48 GMT -6
Lunch time update... 2.12" so far today.
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 11:49:17 GMT -6
4.76”, and no end in sight. Think we’ll hit 5.5” or more down our way.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 4, 2024 11:53:20 GMT -6
It is feast or famine around here lately. Anyway, the number of moving parts that have to be tracked in this pattern is usually high right now. We'll have to keep an eye on TD #18 (Rafael) as well and how it interacts with the next rainmaker coming up this weekend. Wouldn't be a bit unusual for a tropical system to get in to this area this late in the year? Yes...but with the jet displaced so far to the north it wouldn't surprise me to see it. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 4, 2024 12:28:22 GMT -6
Southern counties getting blitzed with training convection
I was very surprised there were no Flash Flood watches hoisted yesterday
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 4, 2024 12:37:11 GMT -6
Yep the next round of heavy stuff is here...and it is a loud one with lots of lightning. Sure is moist down here.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 4, 2024 12:38:39 GMT -6
Nearly 8 1/2" since yesterday 4 miles SE of Farmington as reported by my brother. Still raining. 8.5!?? That seems high but if so it would be much more by now. |
|
|
|
Post by ElburnDave on Nov 4, 2024 12:47:07 GMT -6
Nearly 8 1/2" since yesterday 4 miles SE of Farmington as reported by my brother. Still raining. 8.5!?? That seems high but if so it would be much more by now. Was hoping toddatfarmington could verify. He may be very busy at this point. Pics of the creek are impressive! |
|
|
|
Post by oakvilleerv on Nov 4, 2024 12:55:01 GMT -6
Flashes of lightening and rumbles of thunder in Oakville
|
|
