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Post by bdgwx on Nov 4, 2024 13:15:24 GMT -6
It is feast or famine around here lately. Anyway, the number of moving parts that have to be tracked in this pattern is usually high right now. We'll have to keep an eye on TD #18 (Rafael) as well and how it interacts with the next rainmaker coming up this weekend. Wouldn't be a bit unusual for a tropical system to get in to this area this late in the year? Yes. And while I do think Rafael will get swept into the trough early enough for us to miss most of the moisture I wouldn't entirely eliminate the possibility of at least some of the upper level moisture getting flung into the STL region. The Euro and UKMET had Rafael drifting pretty far west. |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 13:17:03 GMT -6
8.5!?? That seems high but if so it would be much more by now. Was hoping toddatfarmington could verify. He may be very busy at this point. Pics of the creek are impressive! I could believe it. The digital storm accumulation shows that area around 5-5.5 or more, but it only shows me at 2.5, and we passed the 5” mark a little while ago. |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Nov 4, 2024 13:19:58 GMT -6
3.25" Sun/Mon total so far, 12:30pm in Mascoutah
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 4, 2024 13:22:56 GMT -6
3.05" storm total so far in Arnold.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 4, 2024 13:25:50 GMT -6
I'm sitting at 2.75 total here north of Mascoutah. Mod, I know you are on the south side of town. Quite the difference a mile makes.
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Post by tedrick65 on Nov 4, 2024 13:46:39 GMT -6
3.21" since midnight, 4.07" total in High Ridge
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Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 14:08:34 GMT -6
5.61” and back to 1”+/hr rates.
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Post by bororug on Nov 4, 2024 14:08:40 GMT -6
3.98” storm total in Festus, MO.
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Post by perryville on Nov 4, 2024 14:17:44 GMT -6
Breaking News: Damn failure in St. Francois County near Iron Mountain Lake.
Evacuations are in progress.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 4, 2024 16:22:37 GMT -6
The stuff in western AR, that is going to benour next big slug of rain?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 4, 2024 16:25:32 GMT -6
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 4, 2024 16:32:05 GMT -6
Is the server threat tonight the same as it was Early Halloween.morning?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 4, 2024 16:46:31 GMT -6
I’ve got a couple unofficial reports of 10-11” in Ste. Gen as well. All the creeks and small rivers from Bloomsdale to Ste. Gen tell me that is very possible. As high as I’ve seen them outside of 2017 and 2009.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 4, 2024 17:05:15 GMT -6
Storm total approaching 2" in Brighton.
Classic drought buster in progress...amazing totals down south!
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Post by amstilost on Nov 4, 2024 17:25:09 GMT -6
I forgot to put the gauge out last night. But radar estimate showing us at 3 plus but it really has been a nice rain here 7 miles west of DeSoto. The pond does not appear to be at the store yet but it was pretty low. So what weather Creek between my neighbor and mine's property could just see a low flow of runoff in it most of the day. Sump pump started kicking on that hasn't been on in quite a while. Daughter lives in Park Hills and she said Flat River was running pretty high when she had to cross it. And I was told that dam has not failed yet but they have voluntary evacuation posted. Any confirmation on if the dam has failed yet?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 4, 2024 17:30:48 GMT -6
I forgot to put the gauge out last night. But radar estimate showing us at 3 plus but it really has been a nice rain here 7 miles west of DeSoto. The pond does not appear to be at the store yet but it was pretty low. So what weather Creek between my neighbor and mine's property could just see a low flow of runoff in it most of the day. Sump pump started kicking on that hasn't been on in quite a while. Daughter lives in Park Hills and she said Flat River was running pretty high when she had to cross it. And I was told that dam has not failed yet but they have voluntary evacuation posted. Any confirmation on if the dam has failed yet? Jeff Bernthal just reported the dam is still holding but it doesn't sound like the evacuations are voluntary any more. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 4, 2024 17:34:26 GMT -6
I'm supposed to be at Big Barnes for some (hopefully) minor surgery tomorrow at 530 AM. Not looking forward to driving there in a deluge. Best guess on if this rain will shut before then?
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Post by amstilost on Nov 4, 2024 17:37:11 GMT -6
I forgot to put the gauge out last night. But radar estimate showing us at 3 plus but it really has been a nice rain here 7 miles west of DeSoto. The pond does not appear to be at the store yet but it was pretty low. So what weather Creek between my neighbor and mine's property could just see a low flow of runoff in it most of the day. Sump pump started kicking on that hasn't been on in quite a while. Daughter lives in Park Hills and she said Flat River was running pretty high when she had to cross it. And I was told that dam has not failed yet but they have voluntary evacuation posted. Any confirmation on if the dam has failed yet? Jeff Bernthal just reported the dam is still holding but it doesn't sound like the evacuations are voluntary any more. Thanks. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 4, 2024 17:49:58 GMT -6
There was a lot of confusion as to whether it had failed vs. overtopped vs. in danger of failure.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 4, 2024 18:27:10 GMT -6
Looks like a big tornado on the ground west of West Plains, MO
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Nov 4, 2024 18:27:37 GMT -6
Wow lot of rain and storms in southwest Missouri heading our way.
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Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 18:45:07 GMT -6
6.09” storm total just north of Marissa.
One small leaky basement wall, and some mulch issues that I’ll have questions for the landscapers in the group later.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 4, 2024 18:52:03 GMT -6
seeing some crazy flooding pics from southeastern missouri. kind of interesting that there was no watches, but there was warnings. Am still quite concerned about the western counties tonight and overnight for flash flooding.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 4, 2024 18:57:34 GMT -6
HRRR has about 6 inches of rain through the night into tomorrow for areas like Warren and Montgomery Counties in Missouri. This could be quite bad tomorrow. Rap has about 3 to 4 inches.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 4, 2024 19:00:30 GMT -6
Had twin tornadoes on the ground earlier southeast of Ava, MO... or at least two well defined TDS signatures.
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Post by dschreib on Nov 4, 2024 19:04:43 GMT -6
Pretty healthy looking QLCS east of Springfield.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 4, 2024 19:06:36 GMT -6
Where's the flood watch?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 4, 2024 19:24:48 GMT -6
The latest HRRR has a finger of heavy rain totals over the next 20 hours through western St. Charles County (6+ inches), thinking places like Foristell, Wright City, Wentzville. Rap is less dramatic but a new run is coming out on pivotal. Been thundering and lightning here with steady rain, sometimes heavy periods for about 10 minutes or so.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 4, 2024 19:28:21 GMT -6
Yeah... thinking a flash flood watch might be a good idea.
A quick offline chat leads me to believe one will be coming soon.
FF Watch is coming shortly for southeast 1/2 to 2/3rds of my viewing area... including metro STL.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Nov 4, 2024 19:42:16 GMT -6
Update from the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete is 3.8"
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