mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 16, 2019 12:26:41 GMT -6
Rode inside this blueberry dingdong for a good 2.5 hours (don’t say it!!)... Happens and I’m certainly ok with it. 😊 Glad a lot of you that weren’t winners yesterday are getting your lions share so far this morning/early afternoon. This morning’s setup certainly provided a much more a much more amplified, single convective snow band with great lift and instability. But again (as most of us are used to), these storms yield a razor thin snow shield that is I’m sure difficult to impossible to pinpoint where that sweet spot will be, bringing joy to some and lost hope to others. I always say this to people, to be a met in the Midwest, you have to be a little crazy in the head (in a good way!). I’m sure it drives the passionate ones like Chris bonkers. But they wouldn’t be in the profession if they didn’t enjoy the challenge that comes with it (even with all the backlash they get from the ignorant crowd). Amazing job with this storm so far Chris, once again!! Kudos!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 16, 2019 9:24:34 GMT -6
Coming down hard in O’Fallon now. Every flake is absolutely massive.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 16, 2019 9:15:53 GMT -6
Light hamsters falling in O’Fallon, MO
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 16:28:14 GMT -6
Measured in several different spots. Lowest a little over 2” but everywhere else was right at or just under 3”. If precise, I’d go with 2.8 but I like rounded numbers, so 3” O’Fallon/Dardenne.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 14:57:18 GMT -6
I just picked my mom up at Lambert just 10 minutes ahead of the big band. we drove home in it. It has been a while since I have seen it snow that hard during the day. Wow. Roads are a diaster. Guessing about 2 inches at her place in Krikwood. Now off to home in chesterfield! Time to fire up the StormRunner Chris!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 14:34:11 GMT -6
Sleet mixing in. Damn!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 14:30:00 GMT -6
This enhanced band is falling at around 1.5-2”/hr rate. Insane!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 14:01:56 GMT -6
Some of the heaviest snow I’ve witnessed in a while falling right now
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 10:15:20 GMT -6
If someone can explain to me how is folks along and SE of 44 are going to get 2-4". Which will require .25-.50 qpf today from a meteorological standpoint please tell me Quit being such a negative Nancy. Sit back, relax, take a break from the models and let’s see how this thing pans out.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 9:26:24 GMT -6
Very light snow in O’Fallon
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 1:21:11 GMT -6
Hrrr has flakes flying in the metro around 10am It will be light at first but pick up quickly in the afternoon No doubt roads will get slick quick like 99 said Appreciate the updates guys! You both are experts compared to me! Lol
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 0:16:13 GMT -6
What time should we expect the 1st wave to hit? Wife is working 5am-1pm shift tomorrow. Thoughts on potential conditions (worst case) around noon tomorrow?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Nov 11, 2019 9:39:19 GMT -6
Fat flakes falling in O'Fallon, MO
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Mar 3, 2019 0:29:14 GMT -6
As always, thanks for the updates everyone, Chris, Friv, cards, snowstorm, wxwatcher, landscap, Brighton, etc. Too many to name that keep all of us lurkers updated with the latest and greatest.
Btw, Friv I have all the respect for you to be honest with yourself. I do remember back in the old days when you had more of a brash nature with your posts. However regardless of what you were going through then, admitting who you were, apologizing and noticing the differences then vs now is a major accomplishment and you should be very proud of yourself. I think everyone on this board would agree. Takes a real man to admit the past and be true to yourself as a changed man today. We all loved you then and still do now however. I forgot to respond to your posts regarding this last night before I fell asleep but I wanted to so I am now lol.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Mar 3, 2019 0:16:50 GMT -6
It’s going to be done snowing by the time most people get up in Missouri. Are you trying to suggest Missouri folk are lazy? 😂 On the weekends, my mornings start give or take 6am~ish
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Mar 3, 2019 0:14:28 GMT -6
It’s going to be done snowing by the time most people get up in Missouri. Are you trying to suggest Missouri folk are lazy? 😂
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Mar 1, 2019 23:20:40 GMT -6
I’m not trying to come off like an a$$ by saying this so please don’t take this with any bit of disrespect. Can we please cut the android iPhone back and forth. There’s some weather in the forecast and for those that prefer to read the updates on the weather and not what phone everyone has, reviews and what’s preferable, can we stick to the weather please? Nothing wrong with phone talk while we wait for the new maps to come out. Thank you for being the only person to respond to my post respectfully. I was not meaning to be harsh asking for the non-weather back and forth to possibly be redirected into the General Discussion forum. Speaking of phones and using Tapatalk, it can get a little cluttered that’s all. Keep doing what you’re doing. I apologize for tossing my opinion out there. It didn’t need to warrant all the negative childish responses like “Android”. I will just keep to myself next time instead of voicing a respectful suggestion.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Mar 1, 2019 20:39:24 GMT -6
I’m not trying to come off like an a$$ by saying this so please don’t take this with any bit of disrespect.
Can we please cut the android iPhone back and forth. There’s some weather in the forecast and for those that prefer to read the updates on the weather and not what phone everyone has, reviews and what’s preferable, can we stick to the weather please?
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Mar 1, 2019 0:23:04 GMT -6
Not to come off as an expert by any means... But I'm surprised nobody has mentioned what history has proven with similar setups we've seen in years past, that neglected northern shift our weather models never seem to accurately account for. Just throwing it out there.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 28, 2019 13:13:09 GMT -6
Hamsters in O’Fallon
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 28, 2019 12:07:54 GMT -6
Moderate sleet/snow in O’Fallon. Turning everything white.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 22, 2019 8:04:44 GMT -6
Sorry Chris, had to do it
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 22, 2019 8:04:26 GMT -6
Going to be much “Wamer”!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 18, 2019 21:13:21 GMT -6
I’m done reading this forum until development starts to occur over our region. Until then, the model worshiping posts for those of you that take every model FWIW, enjoy the coaster ride until then. For everyone else like me who can’t interpret a weather model to save your life, I suggest you do the same or else drive yourself into complete insanity.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 18, 2019 18:59:28 GMT -6
Will you all just stop looking at the qpf for crying out loud. This is a pretty classic GYB storm and there is no reason to think it will not follow the standard playbook. Time and time again forecasters (including pros) have tossed asside GYB in favor of model QPF...and time after time they are wrong...way wrong. Deformation dont form under the 850mb low... they form northwest of the 500 vort max...by about 150 miles. Give it time. Now...if the 500vort and 850mb low suddenly end up 100 miles further south...then we have a problem...but the models have actually been in pretty darn good agreement on the key GYB parameters. Yeah that's true but the precipitation fields are essentially determined by Vertical Velocity assuming moisture so my thing is vertical velocity is derived by mixing of air masses through the wind. So then I would ask why would most of the models depict this process taking place quite a bit further south Vancouver historical precedent would indicate. The GYB technique probably has an upper 90s percentile verification score. There has to be a physical process to as why the models are showing this even if it's wrong. Even the 850mb 5c isotherm straddles the river. GYB also stands for “Give Yourself a Break”
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 16, 2019 11:14:31 GMT -6
Thought this was pretty neat...
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 15, 2019 22:57:06 GMT -6
You would actually be shocked about how amazing this forum is compared to the rest of the stuff available. This is a juggernaut. I know some are just joking, but if it really upsets people I'll see myself out. P.S. Got my Goldschmidt Jersey for my birthday, so I ride the subway in style. Man, this board would never be the same without you. You know what I’m saying is all in good fun I hope. This board welcomes all especially those like you who have been around forever! It’s great you’re still here with us!! It does go without saying how awesome this forum/board truly is! A community of brilliant weather minds and overall wonderful people. It's really cool to have a virtual hangout of local community members who have a fondness of the weather but also a care for each other. I know I don't have a track record for posting a lot but I've been a member for quite some time. And I have to say as well, this is one of the best weather forums out there bar none. I'm lucky to be a part of it.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 15, 2019 22:43:02 GMT -6
WorldSeries, you live in Chicago now and you can't find a better blog up there in the big and "better" Windy City than Chris' STL blog? I think maybe a bill for at least $20/month should cover it, yes? Unless we start seeing trends swing in your favor of course. That way we can have some money in the jar for that lucky jackpot winner (for whatever that might be) with the money collected. It becomes $40/month if you decide to fair weather us here and become a cubbies fan too! You would actually be shocked about how amazing this forum is compared to the rest of the stuff available. This is a juggernaut. I know some are just joking, but if it really upsets people I'll see myself out. P.S. Got my Goldschmidt Jersey for my birthday, so I ride the subway in style. Man, this board would never be the same without you. You know what I’m saying is all in good fun I hope. This board welcomes all especially those like you who have been around forever! It’s great you’re still here with us!!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 15, 2019 22:38:55 GMT -6
WorldSeries, you live in Chicago now and you can't find a better blog up there in the big and "better" Windy City than Chris' STL blog? I think maybe a bill for at least $20/month should cover it, yes? Unless we start seeing trends swing in your favor of course. That way we can have some money in the jar for that lucky jackpot winner (for whatever that might be) with the money collected. It becomes $40/month if you decide to fair weather us here and become a cubbies fan too! You would actually be shocked about how amazing this forum is compared to the rest of the stuff available. This is a juggernaut. I know some are just joking, but if it really upsets people I'll see myself out. P.S. Got my Goldschmidt Jersey for my birthday, so I ride the subway in style.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 15, 2019 22:33:45 GMT -6
WorldSeries, you live in Chicago now and you can't find a better blog up there in the big and "better" Windy City than Chris' STL blog? I think maybe a bill for at least $20/month should cover it, yes? Unless we start seeing trends swing in your favor of course. That way we can have some money in the jar for that lucky jackpot winner (for whatever that might be) with the money collected. It becomes $40/month if you decide to fair weather us here and become a cubbies fan too! FWIW, I told StlIrish the same when he up and moved to Denver.
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