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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 11:11:21 GMT -6
Looks like the storms may hold off until most of the evening rush hour is over That’s some good news as I wasn’t looking forward to driving home in hail/wind Going to have plenty of time for destabilization with full clearing developing across E/Central MO...today is turning into a tinder box situation quickly.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 18, 2024 9:16:54 GMT -6
Looks like we should see upscale growth with those cells near Sedalia along the remnant outflow this afternoon. Pretty good destabilization underway with the broken overcast along/S of 70.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 17, 2024 15:45:38 GMT -6
Futurecast teeing up the ol STL Split for tomorrow I see...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 19:23:17 GMT -6
Ended up with a whopping tenth of an inch of rain Let’s hope Thursday night brings a good soaker I happened to catch one of the "other" stations sim radar forecasts earlier and it looked pretty intense with multiple bows impacting the region on Thursday. NAM has 2000-2500j/kg CAPE with 40-50kts bulk shear so that outcome seems plausible. The compact low that develops and tracks just N of the Metro could help back surface winds and increase the tornado threat too. But the NAM is void of activity in the warm sector for some reason.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 15:45:41 GMT -6
I sure hope the front brings some rain...that was extremely disappointing
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 15:05:38 GMT -6
These storms are really struggling as they head into IL with the weaker lapse rates...nothing but sprinkles here in Brighton
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 12:47:41 GMT -6
Guess there's enough lift and minimal CINH to get storms going after all. Looks like a noisy afternoon...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 8:25:44 GMT -6
Sooooo tempted to get some summer veggies in the ground... I put 40 hills of potatoes in after work yesterday. Onions going in today. Warm weather stuff probably next week after this cool snap.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2024 4:59:14 GMT -6
Today's severe threat is about as conditional as it gets for the Metro region. It doesn't look like the steeper lapse rate plume will make it this far S/E so instability is marginal and forcing for ascent is pretty weak with no surface boundary nearby. If storms can develop they will pose a severe threat, but it's questionable that they do until late tonight once the front approaches.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2024 7:52:19 GMT -6
We definitely need to watch Tuesday closely. There's good potential for clearing/surface heating during the morning and afternoon as the lead wave moves through and the warm front lifts north. If that can overlap with the steep lapse rate plume/EML, sufficient instability will develop for supercells.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 11, 2024 11:20:44 GMT -6
Crazy sharp gradient on the NW fringe with this system...Jersey Co got almost nothing on the west end while the E side got over an inch.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 8, 2024 16:51:17 GMT -6
Spectacular! The corona with the bonus solar flare was something I'll never forget.
There were several hundred visitors gathered at the Moonshine store. Glad I went East and avoided the traffic on the N/S bound highways.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 7, 2024 14:54:29 GMT -6
My target tomorrow is Moonshine, IL
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2024 9:08:44 GMT -6
The GFS has been bullish with a weak vort max trickling through mid-day while other guidance seems void of that feature. I'm siding on the side of optimism too given that.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2024 8:26:40 GMT -6
I honestly think a thin veil of cirrostratus is favorable for viewing...thin being the key word. The wrench in the gears is a weak front that could set off some CU locally.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2024 11:08:50 GMT -6
Praying for you and your family during this difficult time, Sue!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2024 5:55:40 GMT -6
Graupel mixing in near Godfrey...might see some decent bursts of snow today
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 2, 2024 16:33:44 GMT -6
Pretty wild...the 12z EC looks almost identical to the current flow at 500mb over the US on D10.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 17:22:40 GMT -6
That supercell approaching Chesterfield is really trying to spin up...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 15:31:46 GMT -6
Here we go...deep convection firing N of Rolla
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 13:58:56 GMT -6
Dewpoint up almost 15* since this morning at 66*...it sure feels unstable out there.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 7:25:54 GMT -6
I must have been asleep at the wheel, lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 7:25:25 GMT -6
SPC has introduced a 10% hatched TOR risk along/N of 44 into the Metro.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 6:39:56 GMT -6
CAMs are showing a few supercells traversing the warm front across the N counties this afternoon/early evening, and a threat of overnight QLCS tornadoes with the MCS that develops across OK/MO and tracks ENE. The first batch around mid-day doesn't look as feisty, but CAPE is forecast to reach 1500-2000j/kg+ by then so severe storms are possible. It's looking like a busy day ahead...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 1, 2024 6:05:29 GMT -6
IR sat shows broken clearing across S/Central MO this morning and little to no precip...going to get unstable today for sure.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 31, 2024 7:55:41 GMT -6
Tomorrow looks messy to me...the NAM has shifted northward with the frontal position and instability plume, but debris clouds and precip within the warm sector looks pretty likely. If we do see some clearing during the morning/early afternoon, a greater threat could develop, but it's very conditional as Chris pointed out. The SPC forecast seems pretty bullish to me too.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 30, 2024 9:46:38 GMT -6
NAM looks too aggressive with pushing the boundary well south of the Metro Sunday PM/Mon AM...globals are further N with most of the area within the warm sector.
Looks like the N half or so of the area could see some elevated hailers tonight into tomorrow AM.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 30, 2024 8:11:42 GMT -6
SPC mentions potential for a greater tornado threat near the warm front Monday with backed surface winds and high SRH...we'll have to watch that closely.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 29, 2024 11:58:21 GMT -6
Definitely a dynamic environment on Monday...but with that much large-scale lift, precip and debris clouds might be a limiting factor.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 29, 2024 8:41:03 GMT -6
Looks like the 00z cycle trended south with the stationary/warm front and SLP track on Monday, favoring the southern counties for the severe threat.
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