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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 18:30:42 GMT -6
Also of interest besides for the potential severe outbreak is another possible hard freeze and maybe even some flakes with a strong front towards the middle of next week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 18:19:03 GMT -6
Looking at today's models, the timing of that trof ejection around the Eclipse is tricky with the -NAO breaking down around then. How quickly that happens, as well as the timing of the trof digging across AK on ~D10 acting as a kicker is still very much in question.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2024 11:03:19 GMT -6
Latest CSU probability outlook showing moderate/hatched risk across much of MO for next Monday.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 27, 2024 15:20:11 GMT -6
I know its still a ways out there but models have been pretty consistent with a large lingering system over the middle of the country on April 8...that would suck. The trend has been towards a faster ejection than what models show in this timeframe, so hopefully that's the case. The S stream has been fairly progressive lately.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 25, 2024 17:44:03 GMT -6
Really nice soaker setting in this evening...was a bit concerned with models showing the heavier QPF to the NW and the leading edge being so stubborn earlier. This is good timing for the morels with warm temps later this week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 18, 2024 17:10:06 GMT -6
Really rooting for that scarce dusting IMBY...bring it on!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 15, 2024 19:38:01 GMT -6
Looks like 5 tornadoes have been confirmed by our local NWS office. All EF0. Almost IMBY...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 15, 2024 13:48:37 GMT -6
My low tech watching !AccuNotWx!.com for pickneyville, IL continues to show sunshine and patchy clouds with a high of 60. The !AccuNotWx! forecasts have been criticized heavily by meteorologists. I'd say it's every bit as accurate as an ensemble forecast 20+ days out...that is to say, it isn't.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 15, 2024 8:37:32 GMT -6
I dont know why there are ppl who are not believing the large hail reports across warrenton, wright city, ofallon. They say it didnt happen, just peanut size They probably think the earth is flat too...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 21:32:24 GMT -6
Agreed, today was a solid MOD risk setup around here...there was nothing conditional about it, but the SPC seemed to hit on that pretty hard.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 20:19:00 GMT -6
Disappointing from a rain standpoint in High Ridge. 0.19" around 7:00 this morning and 0.41" with the afternoon and evening storms. It looks like there were lots of rain jackpots North and South. I didn't get much over a quarter inch IMBY...the training deep convection set up just to the S as it often does.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 17:12:25 GMT -6
Bulge/bow developing near Marthasville with strong velocity returns.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 16:44:52 GMT -6
FROPA in Brighton
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 15:34:11 GMT -6
That storm near Pevely crossing the river looks very concerning with a well defined hook/inflow notch
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 15:19:23 GMT -6
One of the busier severe wx days we've seen in a while...impressive
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 14:36:46 GMT -6
Storm approaching Warrenton looks tornadic with 70dbz+ returns
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 14:20:43 GMT -6
Veered surface winds are going to limit the tornado potential but the hail and wind threat is going to be high with such steep lapse rates and strong shear.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 13:39:32 GMT -6
Getting very unstable out there Latest SPC meso analysis has SCBAPE approaching 3500 j/kg Shear is high as well with 0-6km values around 60 kts "Buckle your seat belts"
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 11:25:42 GMT -6
Already rowing CU towers developing down near SGF
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 10:27:56 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN - You OK there? TV said Brighton got hit. I'm in Godfrey during the day but the reports of damage were a few miles north of home base, which is pretty typical. Seems like most of the severe weather goes north and south...especially hail storms.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 4:52:33 GMT -6
Looks like outflow from this AMs storms could push the effective boundary further S/E than expected...that should become the focus for storms later today behind this first wave as things destabilize. We'll have to see where that sets up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 13, 2024 16:40:15 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow looks like a potentially volatile day...good setup for discrete supercells with the weak height falls and the boundary situated more WSW to ENE
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 12, 2024 20:03:09 GMT -6
It'll be interesting to see how those storms are maintained overnight...models show them collapsing as they cross MO but they are being fed by a focused LLJ/WAA
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2024 8:36:24 GMT -6
GFS right back on the cold train with the 00z run and very close to a full blown winter storm in about a week. It's likely that anything that tries to develop in the S stream will get squashed by the N stream crashing in, but if that cut off can eject favorably there could be some potential like the GFS shows. The EC has SNSH activity next Sunday in the cyclonic flow which looks more realistic.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2024 21:49:01 GMT -6
Looks like a drought buster down south...around these parts, not so much.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2024 14:11:58 GMT -6
Will have to keep an eye on mid/late next week for possible severe around here We just need rain at this point in anyway we can get it Was just looking at that...kind of a low key setup but has some potential. GFS kind of backed off on the cold pattern but the EC still brings down some very cold air by mid-month and beyond.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 8, 2024 16:53:34 GMT -6
Less than a half inch in Brighton..."not great"
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2024 6:06:13 GMT -6
I'm still sticking with my thought of a snowstorm the last part (2nd half) of March. 00z gfs goes crazy with snowstorms starting on the 19th. I go to Miami on the 25th, so you can count on something special then. I expect plenty of snow for baseball season in the Upper Midwest. The GEM ensemble mean had a pretty pronounced wave moving through around the 20th that would probably have cold air connection.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2024 18:16:29 GMT -6
Ensembles look downright cold later this month with a deep and persistent trof developing across the E US around the 15th with a west-based -NAO and -EPO.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2024 11:49:57 GMT -6
12z nam brings a brief period of very heavy snow to the metro Saturday morning. I did notice some of the models were showing some potential for a secondary with that a couple days ago.
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