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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2024 11:46:36 GMT -6
Heard some guy talking about the warmth and morels. I told him to not jump the gun Late freeze and stunted crop seems to be the standard any more...betting this year delivers on that
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2024 9:45:00 GMT -6
The drought wins again...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 4, 2024 16:27:16 GMT -6
Some pretty decent supercells up north...could see a few hailers or wind producers overnight Saw some cumulus bubbling on my way home from work. Feels warm and humid Yeah, it looks and feels like May today
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 4, 2024 15:53:33 GMT -6
Some pretty decent supercells up north...could see a few hailers or wind producers overnight
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2024 15:11:57 GMT -6
Ain't that the truth!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2024 14:27:44 GMT -6
Both the GFS and EC look colder towards mid-month...definitely a signal for a large-scale pattern change. Whether or not that equates to any snow potential remains to be seen but it's a lot cooler pattern than the current blowtorch flow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2024 12:15:18 GMT -6
Ensembles look colder towards the end of the run(D15) but that's way out there. Not much else to write home about otherwise, maybe a few flakes later in the week behind that front. Yea since I made that post things don’t look as good lol …. It definitely looks cooler towards the end of the month …. With our luck it will be cool and damp most of April I sure hope so...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 3, 2024 9:23:53 GMT -6
GFS looks wintery at the end of it’s run this evening Ensembles look colder towards the end of the run(D15) but that's way out there. Not much else to write home about otherwise, maybe a few flakes later in the week behind that front.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2024 18:14:32 GMT -6
Thinking about you and your sister, Reb!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 29, 2024 5:47:50 GMT -6
I guess we got some small hail overnight on Tuesday...found little piles around the house yesterday afternoon
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 29, 2024 5:44:14 GMT -6
The Nam and the GFS have a little snow around here tomorrow night …… The nam has a few inches to the west of STL …. Gfs has about an inch for STL …. Something to watch Thinking the surface temps are going to be too warm for anything substantial...but that's an interesting little system
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 28, 2024 16:40:49 GMT -6
How dry was Feb compared to normal? Was the only precip the thunder snow event? Dry. It seems pretty droughty still for it being one of the wettest times of the year typically. Pretty concerned about this growing season unless things change pretty quickly.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 28, 2024 11:46:13 GMT -6
Not looking promising for any kind of return to winter in March. CFS has been consistent about a blowtorch east of the Rockies and most of Canada. Yeah, I'm about ready to write it off...the strat warming is probably happening too late.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2024 19:22:59 GMT -6
Winds have backed at Scott AFB to more southeasterly. If storms can break through the cap... yikes! Storm trying to go up near Centralia...that looks to be the W edge of the firing zone
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2024 12:26:39 GMT -6
Looks like the short-range CAMS were onto something with mixing out the moisture judging by the SPC update.
I guess it's not too surprising, everything has been wanting to blow up across the lower OHV for over a year now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2024 6:12:06 GMT -6
The HRRR looks pretty aggressive mixing out the low-level moisture with a big void of SBCAPE developing along and W of the river. Seems like that model has a bias of overmixing/warming. Today continues to be a very conditional threat around here but further N/NE closer to the SLP track is another story.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2024 16:02:09 GMT -6
One of the strongest temp gradients I can remember since that "superfront" back in 2006(?) I believe you are correct. I think we had some ice after that as well. Yep, it was in the mid/upper 70s with severe storms along the front and sleet/snow squalls behind it with temps crashing into the 20s
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2024 15:04:06 GMT -6
We might go from 80s and severe weather tomorrow afternoon to snow showers 12 hours later Going to be a wild temp drop One of the strongest temp gradients I can remember since that "superfront" back in 2006(?)
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2024 9:47:31 GMT -6
Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day...most models are consistent in showing 1000-1500j/kg SBCAPE developing with strong frontal convergence moving in during the late afternoon/evening. It's hard to imagine storms not developing in that environment, but CAMs are pretty stingy so far.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 14:03:25 GMT -6
That's for sure. The threat is there...but it continues to look conditional around here. The GFS/EURO agree that storms will develop late afternoon/evening across mainly IL while the NAM is much slower. I'd say there's considerable tornado potential near the SLP where winds are more backed and convergence is maximized, so this needs to be watched closely. I might be able to go from tornado watch to snow squall warning in about 2 hours. It's bringing a pretty strong temp gradient for sure. N/Central IL seems to be the hotspot for the greatest severe threat currently.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 14:01:36 GMT -6
I know Tuesday comes first, but have you guys been peeking what might be brewing next weekend? Some of the recent euro runs are as classic as a plains severe outbreak gets Yeah, big ol bowling ball coming in hot...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 11:26:16 GMT -6
SPC has issued a SLGT risk for Tuesday for the region but models are still variable with the timing and location of convective initiation. The EURO is bullish with storms developing across IL near the SLP but other modeling is more subdued and slower. There is a lot to hash out still. That's for sure. The threat is there...but it continues to look conditional around here. The GFS/EURO agree that storms will develop late afternoon/evening across mainly IL while the NAM is much slower. I'd say there's considerable tornado potential near the SLP where winds are more backed and convergence is maximized, so this needs to be watched closely.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 8:50:40 GMT -6
SPC has issued a SLGT risk for Tuesday for the region but models are still variable with the timing and location of convective initiation. The EURO is bullish with storms developing across IL near the SLP but other modeling is more subdued and slower.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2024 8:40:49 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN did you see they've recorded the first official morel find of the Spring in the state of MO down in far SWMO in McDonald county?? Soil temps in my area are already running about 40°. This seems WAY out of the norm. 😳 I'm not surprised with the shallow, rocky soil they have down that way. Microclimates can make all the difference with those early ones. The tulips and daffodils are coming up here. It's definitely looking like the earliest start since 2012 unless things change in March. And there's really no signs of that in the modeling yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2024 8:21:44 GMT -6
Last night's EURO looks a bit concerning for Tuesday with ~1500j/kg CAPE and strong shear values. Almost seems like a conditional threat with some models not really firing storms until the front pushes east of us Tuesday night but if storms develop the environment should be conducive for rotating storms and tornadoes.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 23, 2024 12:21:09 GMT -6
Just based on the outlines of the Outlooks next week, Wednesday over the mid-south will be a big day, seems that area always gets smoked. Tuesday will probably be more conditional, just based on geography.... Of course it will do something becuase its a storm forecast and not snow. Tuesday looks like a good setup for isolated supercells across the region...open warm sector with weak height falls/PVA and the jetstreak nosing in
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2024 16:27:59 GMT -6
Major winter storm during that stretch...guaranteed
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 20, 2024 16:09:35 GMT -6
Could this be the last snowfall of the season unless something unexpected happens? Who knows, still almost 2 months of snow season left. Anyone know what happened to the SSW event that was supposed to happen this week? It's in progress. Models were showing another burst of warming developing into early March which would help the vortex remain weak and stretched. Should be some cold air sloshing around next month...where it goes remains to be seen.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 19, 2024 16:12:19 GMT -6
Reed is starting to talk up the potential severe outbreak towards months end...it definitely has "the look".
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2024 7:34:52 GMT -6
We aren't done though! It's really hard to compare our recent winters in the snowfall department to the past climatology of 30 years. It's just a different pattern beast! We'll see. Looks like we may have to wait until March for any potential...models show a possible severe wx setup towards the last day or two of the month with sustained S flow and a big trof ejection out of the W US.
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