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Post by nascarfan999 on Aug 28, 2018 19:24:15 GMT -6
Ya, but what's your thoughts on July, 2020? Hot, humid, chance of rain. I think that about covers it.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Aug 25, 2018 20:58:15 GMT -6
After Weather Fest, come on over to Gateway for the Indy car race. I’m going to have some BIG surprises for fireworks on the parade laps, and post race. I wasn't there, but enjoyed the NBCSN reference "what do they do on the 4th of July?" after seeing your post-race show.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Aug 21, 2018 21:08:06 GMT -6
Glad to see the Cardinals pick up Matt Adam's from the waiver wire today. I may be a much needed lefthanded batter heading into the stretch run off the bench I appreciate your optimism, but not sure you would qualify as our much needed lefthanded batter.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Aug 18, 2018 23:18:17 GMT -6
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Post by nascarfan999 on Aug 18, 2018 18:37:59 GMT -6
Really neat sunset this evening. Sun is still well above the horizon but has completely disappeared through the haze.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jul 28, 2018 18:11:34 GMT -6
Had ~6 rounds of light rain at the ballpark, a couple made it up to steady rain but even then they were small drops and not that bad.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jul 13, 2018 17:40:15 GMT -6
Hi was 102. Max dp 77 min do 71. Pretty impressive to have a 70 plus dp with temps 98 to 103. Usually they drop when its that hot. I firmly believe the advisory should of been today as well. But its splitting hairs its just hot and poor air quality. Classically brutal July day and its Friday the 13th. I think you need to find a new source for weather. I was unable to find a NWS station higher than 97 today and the highest heat index I found was 106. I've also noticed this is a pattern with your observations. I know the way my home station is setup, I cannot rely on it in the morning because it gets some direct sunlight, but is better later in the day as the shade moves over it.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 29, 2018 17:22:41 GMT -6
Here are the verification maps for yesterday's forecast. I would be surprised if more than 50 of the >700 reports from yesterday were form an Enhanced or Moderate Risk area. In fact, our derecho wasn't even considered for a marginal risk based on the lack of anything in Nebraska or Iowa initially. I won't post the rest of the maps to save space, but here they are if you want to see the forecast progression... Forecast #2Forecast #3Forecast #4
Other have said it already, but a huge thanks and kudos to Chris AND to the several others on here who were highlighting the potential going back to Tuesday or so and stuck with it yesterday in the face of these forecasts.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 29, 2018 17:14:30 GMT -6
So I was curious of the exact definition of a Derecho and decided to look it up. There dosent seem to be an exact definition but some widely accepted ones. One of the better ones comes from a 2005 study by Walker Ashley and Thomas Mote:
- Length: A concentrated area of thunderstorm high winds/wind damage at least 400 kilometers (roughly 249 miles) long.
- Chronological progression: The wind reports must flow forward logically with time as one or more swaths.
- No large time/space gap between reports: No time gaps of over 2.5 hours or spatial gaps of greater than 2 degrees of latitude or longitude between successive wind reports.
- Origin of wind swath: Multiple swaths must be part of the same thunderstorm cluster.
- Continuity: The thunderstorm cluster responsible for the high winds and wind damage must have temporal and spatial continuity.
My one question about that map is I thought the southern track was the storm complex that originated near our area early yesterday morning. If so, the two would have essentially overlapped around Kentucky and Tennessee.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 28, 2018 17:22:42 GMT -6
I missed out on this storm!! 😭 Don't be so sure yet...looks like some backbuilding trying to happen around Elsberry back to Silex, although at least you missed the main event.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 25, 2018 18:03:26 GMT -6
I guess no watch? Storms just not doing their thing.... Does the new Excessive Heat Watch count?
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 12, 2018 22:01:21 GMT -6
I've been thinking 100 + was a possibility this weekend for a couple days. It'll be hot. Just in time to spend most of the weekend outside. Can and likely will move Sunday's indoors, but not so much for Saturday.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 6, 2018 21:12:16 GMT -6
Probably someone shooting tanerite. There is a guy in my area that has not not allowed to shot it anymore. They have had many manhours and monies spent the first couple time he did it. I've seen reports of it being heard from Rolla down to Mountain Home, AR which is over 100 miles apart. I have a really hard time believing tannerite exploding can be heard over 50 miles away in each direction.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 27, 2018 15:45:10 GMT -6
New record high for today is 96* (old record was 93*)
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 25, 2018 7:18:24 GMT -6
Just had a two minute rain shower. Enough to make puddles. As my dad called them "a tramp shower." Had a great rainbow from it and just now starting to get sprinkles here. However, none of the 8 weather segments I watched this morning showed any rain right now, just midday or this afternoon. Excuse the billboard blocking the view...
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 15, 2018 18:45:16 GMT -6
In case you didn't see the STL NWS's Tweet.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 14, 2018 17:41:47 GMT -6
Did they just warn the gust front? It seemed a little overdue given the reports out of south county and especially with a measured 58 MPH at Smartt field (St. Charles). That said, my experience matched guyatacomputer...most impressive thing I saw was reduced visibility from dust when the gust front came through.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 14, 2018 11:33:29 GMT -6
STL on the slight risk edge today. Points N and W with higher chance SPC TodayA little nudge in our direction, but a much bigger swing out East where they fear a derecho. Some areas in and around Maryland started today with a 5% risk level for damaging wind and are now up to 45% with talk of a possible upgrade to Moderate risk if it pans out. Another odd tidbit that I don't recall seeing too often is a marginal risk was added for east central Florida due to a tornado threat, but no wind or hail threat. I feel like usually for almost any potential thunderstorm they will at least put the 5% hail/wind threat in place, but not for that one. Next update will be due out around 3pm CDT.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 2, 2018 10:53:09 GMT -6
Interesting that in their first update to today's outlook they actually shaved it back by maybe a county to the north/west. Also shaved back the enhanced risk that was going over to the Iowa/Illinois border all the back to mid-Missouri/Iowa. Also nudged the moderate risk a hair closer to Kansas City, with Kansas City, KS now included in the moderate risk but not Kansas City, MO. Maybe something to do with the slower eastward progression Chris was talking about? Not sure because now their 11:30am update is pretty much back to the way they started the day for us. Out west they have expanded the moderate risk to include the KC metro and also drops back into south central Kansas/North Central Oklahoma.
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 2, 2018 8:39:52 GMT -6
HRRRv3 has a QLCS approaching St. Louis after 2am tonight. The environment looks modestly supportive of severe weather. The SPC outlooks are good until 12Z (7am) in the morning so it's possible they'll have to extend the slight risk to cover more of our area of interest. Interesting that in their first update to today's outlook they actually shaved it back by maybe a county to the north/west. Also shaved back the enhanced risk that was going over to the Iowa/Illinois border all the back to mid-Missouri/Iowa. Also nudged the moderate risk a hair closer to Kansas City, with Kansas City, KS now included in the moderate risk but not Kansas City, MO.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 26, 2018 20:21:16 GMT -6
I remember KTVI FOX use to be KTVI ABC Anyone else remember the songs they used to advertise the switch? "ABC's movin' up to thirty" KTVI used Here's 2 St. Louis. I believe they did several different videos/versions (which also were kept on the FOX2 website several years ago).
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 18, 2018 14:20:56 GMT -6
Yeah...no severe weather for 3 weeks...in April and May...I'm not going to hold my breath on that. Anyway, this highlights the need for a better radar network with better coverage and more overlap of coverage for redundancy. Is the technology there to be able to deploy a "mobile" or "temporary" radar? I would think a nationwide network upgrade and filling in gaps/overlap would be extremely costly, but if a temporary radar could be set up for situations like then (and moved around the country to cover other maintenance periods, scheduled or unscheduled), it would be a decent stop-gap solution.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 18, 2018 14:18:22 GMT -6
Better hope there is no severe weather in southeast MO or far southern IL into northeast Arkansas the next 3 weeks.... this could not be worse timing. A large portion of southeast MO will be left without any useful radar coverage. Fortunately their office does have the Fort Campbell radar to help, but it is going to be much more useful for Western Kentucky and maybe Southern Illinois rather than Southeast Missouri.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 13, 2018 21:23:19 GMT -6
Is it just me or is the rotation trying to show back up around Augusta?
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 13, 2018 20:31:57 GMT -6
Is St. Charles in the bullseye of the branson supercell? It's still 60+ miles out. It is far enough out that most of the metro should keep an eye on it, but from what I see the current motion would take the portion of the storm with rotation more over St. Louis County.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 3, 2018 21:35:51 GMT -6
Normally I would say 2 out of 3 isn't bad, but...yeah, not fun times. Can we revisit this at the end of April...May...June...July...August...September...October? Sample size of 1 will make even a genius look dumb...and I'm no genius. Kenley Jansen (He of the legendary Dodgers) got blown up twice already. I bet you would still take him. My response was solely directed to them looking good tonight. While I'm not a huge fan of the current roster, I think Holland really transforms the bullpen and by freeing up Reyes for the rotation it provides better insurance there than we have today. Now let's bring on April snow #2.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 3, 2018 21:00:42 GMT -6
Offense is legit, young pitching was dominant, bullpen is loaded. Fun times. Normally I would say 2 out of 3 isn't bad, but...yeah, not fun times.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 2, 2018 17:42:11 GMT -6
The frontogenesis band setup a bit further north than forecasted. Overall though I think yesterday's weather event behaved pretty well. Bullseye in BRTN's backyard [x] Snow in Mad's backyard [x] Anti-bullseye in Union [x] Map looks legit to me. I did measure here this morning and had right at an inch.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 2, 2018 6:44:18 GMT -6
Quincy, IL is down to 9*. Coming into today, their previous 4/2 record low was 22* and their April monthly record low was 15*. The coldest official temperature I could find in Missouri for April prior to today was 14* at Columbia.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 1, 2018 19:09:20 GMT -6
It didn't start until a few minutes after I heard the thunder, but that was one of the most impressive bursts of snow I've seen. My best estimate at the peak is that visibility was around 800 feet, maybe a little more, although I didn't have a great setup to try and measure. That was just east of Orchard Farm a few miles north of St. Charles. As I got closer to town it looked like they missed out on the heaviest band as visibility and road conditions improved.
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