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Post by ElburnDave on Oct 20, 2018 13:09:57 GMT -6
Chris,
If you get the chance, check out Jungle Jim's International Market. I believe it is in Fairfield, north of downtown. Very interesting mix of unusual and international foods, produce, and spirits and an eclectic array of home goods. Worth the stop!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 20, 2018 13:33:37 GMT -6
And...my visit to the pumpkin patch has snow lol.
Nice
Good call BRTN.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 20, 2018 13:59:10 GMT -6
Enjoy!
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 20, 2018 14:24:21 GMT -6
videos and pics of snow should be banned unless within a 50 mile radius of stl. lol
you 2 enjoy it though
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 20, 2018 15:07:21 GMT -6
fat flakes, wind gusts 40-60 mph... what a beautiful sight!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 20, 2018 15:13:10 GMT -6
We are more likely heading for 17 to 25 range imo. Thatâs going to feel like living in a Great Lakes snow belt compared to the last few winters around here |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Oct 20, 2018 16:33:58 GMT -6
We are more likely heading for 17 to 25 range imo. Thatâs going to feel like living in a Great Lakes snow belt compared to the last few winters around here Using my typical snow-cast formula vs. actuals: xâ to yâ = zâ divided by 2 (average) divided by 1.5 = actual snowfall. 17 + 25 = 42 divided by 2 = 21, divided by 1.5 = 14â . Howâs my math? |
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Post by mchafin on Oct 20, 2018 17:35:34 GMT -6
At a little golf resort in Pana, IL. Besides some serious wind, I saw about 8 wolly caterpillars. All had their first 2 sections black with the rest brown. Folklore will tell you that means winter comes on strong then retreats. We shall see.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Oct 20, 2018 18:17:32 GMT -6
At a little golf resort in Pana, IL. Besides some serious wind, I saw about 8 wolly caterpillars. All had their first 2 sections black with the rest brown. Folklore will tell you that means winter comes on strong then retreats. We shall see. STILL cutting grass today, saw 2 by foundation, both totally black. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Oct 20, 2018 18:19:48 GMT -6
Setting my alarm for 4 tomorrow morning to see meteor shower. Got warm clothes, blanket & camp chair by door.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 20, 2018 18:45:01 GMT -6
We saw our first black Wooley worm weeks ago at our cabin near Bonne Terre and since then we have seen 2-3 all white ones!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 20, 2018 18:49:01 GMT -6
Didn't second and third source it but supposedly the wind today blew down the canopy over the gas pumps at the Pilot truck stop in Effingham
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 20, 2018 21:57:42 GMT -6
The EPO is the best predictor for the large scale pattern across the central US, IMO. October snow growth across Siberia and E Russia is a good predictor of the AO phase for winter...Cohen follows this closely when making his forecasts. It definitely does pretty well with pointing towqrds time of increased storm activity in the central CONUS...but AO seems to be the best at cold air.
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/
This link contains historical values that include NAO and EPO. Interesting to note that EPO has been negative largely since early September. NAO has largely been positive. Cutters maybe? Well, IIRC, we had a good winter a few years ago where the storm track was active and favorable with plenty of snow, when we had that combination.
In the past, I've stated that I like to use October as my go-to month to help decipher the upcoming winter. A general observation of the pattern in October has seemed to project fairly well with the following winter. But I'm not sure how these October teleconnections line up. I looked at the late 70s, and while there was some hint of negative NAO in September and late October, say in 1976 a lot of October was also positive. I'd have to dig to see exactly what the correlation is for other years. I think the NAO has had a lot of trouble going negative in recent times. I think I recall consensus from the smart people on here that given the choice of a negative EPO or negative NAO, the negative EPO is preferred. I'm going to stand by my 24 inches of snow. I even tempered that by a few inches from my earlier thinking and my number falls on the high end of Chris' thinking. I try not to over analyze. I think there will be much more moisture available and I alluded to increased storm activity in the central CONUS. For my 24 to happen, I think winter will have to come early (the 24 is for the entire season, not just DJF). We are on a good start. I'm not surprised by cpc winter outlook. I AM surprised by the CPC November outlook, not so much for this area, but basically the entire country was painted orange. Of course, that could change on October 31 when they reissue the monthly reflecting more of the operational outlook. This blog should be active, and a lot of the snow bunnies will be up late watching models.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 21, 2018 6:43:41 GMT -6
25* here this morning...brrrr!
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Post by REB on Oct 21, 2018 8:08:51 GMT -6
24.3 degrees at 7:32 a.m.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 21, 2018 9:02:46 GMT -6
I have no idea what temperature it was at any time prior to 9 this morning. I was snug in my bed next to my beautiful bride. We spent last evening in Defiance at the Daniel Boone farm for the Spirits of the Past walk. It was chilly. Happy Sundy yall!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 21, 2018 11:47:50 GMT -6
Lambert got down to 30* early this morning
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 21, 2018 13:19:17 GMT -6
Using the link Beaker provided I was able to easily merge the historical daily EPO and NAO indices with the KSTL daily observations I already had and decided to do some scatter plots (too lazy to do longer term averages which may be more appropriate). Just some general observations of my own for the meteorological winter months from 1948-2017 for KSTL only: 1. Of the two indices EPO seems to have more correlation with daily average temperatures, but there's still a lot of variance so the relationship is slight. 2. Snowfall may be slightly more preferred in the neutral to negative phases of both indices, but again the relationship is tenuous. 3. Major snowfalls tend to occur away from the extreme phases of both indices and closer towards the neutral phases. Here's some of the plots: EPO vs. Temp: i.imgur.com/WQYKMMP.pngEPO vs. Snow: i.imgur.com/ZKv5fAz.pngEPO vs. Precip: i.imgur.com/FIkn48B.pngNAO vs. Temp: i.imgur.com/80wXbN0.pngNAO vs. Snow: i.imgur.com/35jBszo.pngNAO vs. Precip: i.imgur.com/FTJLCKT.png |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 21, 2018 14:25:04 GMT -6
It will be nice to get a look at Dave, Glenn and Chris's outlook on this Winter. Even though Glenn and Chris may not go into much detail as Dave, it will be cool to see. I'm looking forward to it. Anybody have a time and Day for their outlooks?
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 21, 2018 15:29:08 GMT -6
Here are updated precipitation and snowfall charts for St. Louis. The 30 year average snowfall is now down to 17.2". The 30 year average precipitation is now up to 40.4".   |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2018 16:36:09 GMT -6
It will be nice to get a look at Dave, Glenn and Chris's outlook on this Winter. Even though Glenn and Chris may not go into much detail as Dave, it will be cool to see. I'm looking forward to it. Anybody have a time and Day for their outlooks? Sounds like a challenge, Mr. Higgins... Time to bust out the Daisy and the camera equipment! |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 21, 2018 19:01:18 GMT -6
Using the link Beaker provided I was able to easily merge the historical daily EPO and NAO indices with the KSTL daily observations I already had and decided to do some scatter plots (too lazy to do longer term averages which may be more appropriate). Just some general observations of my own for the meteorological winter months from 1948-2017 for KSTL only: 1. Of the two indices EPO seems to have more correlation with daily average temperatures, but there's still a lot of variance so the relationship is slight. 2. Snowfall may be slightly more preferred in the neutral to negative phases of both indices, but again the relationship is tenuous. 3. Major snowfalls tend to occur away from the extreme phases of both indices and closer towards the neutral phases. Here's some of the plots: EPO vs. Temp: i.imgur.com/WQYKMMP.pngEPO vs. Snow: i.imgur.com/ZKv5fAz.pngEPO vs. Precip: i.imgur.com/FIkn48B.pngNAO vs. Temp: i.imgur.com/80wXbN0.pngNAO vs. Snow: i.imgur.com/35jBszo.pngNAO vs. Precip: i.imgur.com/FTJLCKT.pngthis work you did is greatly appreciated. i know that we may never find the red herring in the snowy and cold winters. |
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Post by mchafin on Oct 21, 2018 19:58:27 GMT -6
Iâm reading through that entire blog from the Groundhog Day storm in 2011. Whatâs interesting is that I was pretty sick during that storm and my mind clearly wasnât on the storm, so Iâve forgotten all about the ups and downs. Itâs fun to read through it.
The side effect of reading it is that now Iâm pumped for Winter hoping we get a couple storms to obsessively post about!
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 21, 2018 20:25:40 GMT -6
I don't think my heart could survive another Groundhog day disaster.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 21, 2018 21:47:02 GMT -6
I don't think my heart could survive another Groundhog day disaster. I hear ya. But that sure was fun! We need something like that around here. |
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Post by weatherj on Oct 21, 2018 22:55:35 GMT -6
I'm hoping we can get some wound up systems ( that produce snow or at least frozen precip..heh) this winter season. We're all so hungry for it! That 2011 storm was fun in the sense of tracking it and so much anticipation. Many in the middle were left in a sleet bath as you well know, but a blockbuster nonetheless. My favorite is 99's Christmas Eve storm of 2009 rant..lol!
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Oct 22, 2018 7:37:52 GMT -6
I would just like to see some snow falling for longer than a couple hours at a time. A nice âall day snowâ would be just what the doctor ordered.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 22, 2018 8:14:45 GMT -6
Hurricane Willa in the Eastern Pacific looks impressive. GOES-16 raw T# is up to 7.3 which is the highest I've seen so far. Recon is en-route now...will they find a Cat 5 storm?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 22, 2018 8:48:55 GMT -6
Hurricane Willa in the Eastern Pacific looks impressive. GOES-16 raw T# is up to 7.3 which is the highest I've seen so far. Recon is en-route now...will they find a Cat 5 storm? Heading towards Mexico and south central Texas. Just what they don't need. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2018 10:31:30 GMT -6
Hurricane Willa in the Eastern Pacific looks impressive. GOES-16 raw T# is up to 7.3 which is the highest I've seen so far. Recon is en-route now...will they find a Cat 5 storm? 925mb...160mph sustained. It's been a helluva hurricane season! |
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