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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 19, 2018 12:04:53 GMT -6
I’d be happy with 30 inches this winter! 😂 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 19, 2018 12:38:06 GMT -6
Pretty sure I just read a post from CBTL on Dave's Facebook page. He is calling for 28-33 inches of snow this winter for St.Louis. So we have that going for us. He looks exactly how I imagined he would. lol. i read that post too. good catch. very similar writing style. according to his profile, he is living in denver, CO but lists his hometown as Chicago. does anybody know if he is on other forums around the country? ive always tried to figure out his interest in st louis winters. I believe he is on the sb nation forum bleedcubbieblue under the same name... Hard to tell for sure though, all cubs fans sound the same to me lol |
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Post by pbc12871 on Oct 19, 2018 13:11:14 GMT -6
If I am remembering correctly, he used to talk about his Greek heritage. This guy's last name was most certainly Greek. He said he is a respiratory therapist. There are pics of him wearing scrubs and a stethoscope. (the obvious implication here is "Hey look stranger lurking on my profile,I am a doctor!) He discussed Japanese words. He was an a-hole. The guy in the pics is most definitely an a-hole. It has to be him.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 19, 2018 13:44:47 GMT -6
If I am remembering correctly, he used to talk about his Greek heritage. This guy's last name was most certainly Greek. He said he is a respiratory therapist. There are pics of him wearing scrubs and a stethoscope. (the obvious implication here is "Hey look stranger lurking on my profile,I am a doctor!) He discussed Japanese words. He was an a-hole. The guy in the pics is most definitely an a-hole. It has to be him. Haha...this is great, thanks for that. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 19, 2018 13:48:03 GMT -6
If I am remembering correctly, he used to talk about his Greek heritage. This guy's last name was most certainly Greek. He said he is a respiratory therapist. There are pics of him wearing scrubs and a stethoscope. (the obvious implication here is "Hey look stranger lurking on my profile,I am a doctor!) He discussed Japanese words. He was an a-hole. The guy in the pics is most definitely an a-hole. It has to be him. I'm still here trying to figure out how a head like that gets under a wheel well! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 19, 2018 14:02:53 GMT -6
Has anyone really put in any stock into the FV3-GFS Test [0.25*] yet? I could be wrong, but so far I'm not impressed.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 19, 2018 14:18:08 GMT -6
On the road this weekend...at Xavier for parents' weekend.
First... Nick...got your message...I will get back to you.
Second... Pretty sure GZ is just going into more detail on the NOAA outlook...how it is made, what they are calling for, etc. But you will have to watch for yourselves to find out for sure. That's why he was in DC.
Third... I have been digging more into the seasonal side of things this year than in seasons past...and I am leaning toward a winter that will be colder and snowier than the past two...but nothing too crazy. I think we just get back to more normal...in both temps and snowfall...which may seem like a lot compared to recent years.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 19, 2018 14:23:37 GMT -6
I remember the last two weeks of Dec and early Jan last year being really cold but no snow to go with it!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 19, 2018 14:27:01 GMT -6
We did have some brutal cold last year. And many had a White Christmas with temps in the teens...so that was certainly improved from years prior. I think we will have some fun this year for sure.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 19, 2018 14:33:52 GMT -6
Tony K on Dave's post is definitely CBTL. 100% certain.
I figured Glen wouldn't have a real forecast.
Bring on winter.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 19, 2018 14:59:57 GMT -6
I just read on FB what a hometown meteorologist from Michigan noted that the Western Arctic has the highest amount of ice in mid October since 2004! Hope this helps our winter! I heard that as well. It's actually talking about North American snow and ice cover way up there in Canada. Arctic sea ice extents are basically in a perpetual state of being at or near record lows year round now as the Arctic continues to warm at a rate 2.5x as fast as the global mean. There's actually a theory called WACCy which stands for Warm Arctic Cold Continent which says that as the Arctic region continues to warm it will displace some of the colder air further down in latitude, but it's basically an effect that is mostly confined to 60N or higher though it's possible we could see some Arctic air intrusions down here around 40N due to the effect. I'm not sure if October NA snow and ice coverage is a good discriminator of snow in St. Louis or not. Maybe someone else can chime in on that. I've been trying to find any climate index that has predictive power for us on a seasonal basis and I'm coming up short. The AMO does have a little predictive power, but not much. ENSO and PDO cycles have no skill at all for St. Louis as best I can tell. The global mean surface temperature has skill on a decadal basis. The more the Earth warms the less snow we get. But, there's really no seasonal skill with it either. I think the fact that we are in the middle of the country really reinforces the chaotic nature of weather system in general for us and that's why our snowy seasons seem to have a bigger element of chance than other parts of the country. I'm still poking around for anything with skill so if any of you have ideas let me know and I'll check it out. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 19, 2018 15:07:10 GMT -6
If I am remembering correctly, he used to talk about his Greek heritage. This guy's last name was most certainly Greek. He said he is a respiratory therapist. There are pics of him wearing scrubs and a stethoscope. (the obvious implication here is "Hey look stranger lurking on my profile,I am a doctor!) He discussed Japanese words. He was an a-hole. The guy in the pics is most definitely an a-hole. It has to be him. certainly sounds like he is doing wheel well. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 19, 2018 15:08:57 GMT -6
Has anyone really put in any stock into the FV3-GFS Test [0.25*] yet? I could be wrong, but so far I'm not impressed.
I went through a few presentations from NOAA EMC on the topic a couple weeks ago. I'll see if I can find the links, but basically it was a mixed bag. It does better than the GFS in some areas and worse in other areas. One of the high points appeared to be significantly improved synoptic forecasts at day 5 and beyond - extratropical cyclone track errors were way lower compared to GFS. Interesting: one of the presentation I saw summarized the various forecast office (SPC, CPC, NHC, WPC, Regional offices, etc.) positions on FV3 and most were neutral to favorable in rolling out the upgrade, though some opposed, which I think is supposed to be January 2019. Anyway, like you, I was left with the "meh" impression and wondering if it was money well spent. Though the presentations do mention that its an initial implementation and the important features of FV3 aren't being fully utilized yet so improvements are expected later. I don't know, it's a model, it's gonna be close to correct sometimes and far from correct other times - the art is figuring out which one it's gonna be before hand.
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Post by pbc12871 on Oct 19, 2018 15:16:44 GMT -6
Beaker..that made me legit lol!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 19, 2018 17:16:54 GMT -6
welcome back tim!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 19, 2018 19:36:45 GMT -6
I just read on FB what a hometown meteorologist from Michigan noted that the Western Arctic has the highest amount of ice in mid October since 2004! Hope this helps our winter! I heard that as well. It's actually talking about North American snow and ice cover way up there in Canada. Arctic sea ice extents are basically in a perpetual state of being at or near record lows year round now as the Arctic continues to warm at a rate 2.5x as fast as the global mean. There's actually a theory called WACCy which stands for Warm Arctic Cold Continent which says that as the Arctic region continues to warm it will displace some of the colder air further down in latitude, but it's basically an effect that is mostly confined to 60N or higher though it's possible we could see some Arctic air intrusions down here around 40N due to the effect. I'm not sure if October NA snow and ice coverage is a good discriminator of snow in St. Louis or not. Maybe someone else can chime in on that. I've been trying to find any climate index that has predictive power for us on a seasonal basis and I'm coming up short. The AMO does have a little predictive power, but not much. ENSO and PDO cycles have no skill at all for St. Louis as best I can tell. The global mean surface temperature has skill on a decadal basis. The more the Earth warms the less snow we get. But, there's really no seasonal skill with it either. I think the fact that we are in the middle of the country really reinforces the chaotic nature of weather system in general for us and that's why our snowy seasons seem to have a bigger element of chance than other parts of the country. I'm still poking around for anything with skill so if any of you have ideas let me know and I'll check it out. The EPO is the best predictor for the large scale pattern across the central US, IMO. October snow growth across Siberia and E Russia is a good predictor of the AO phase for winter...Cohen follows this closely when making his forecasts. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 19, 2018 19:43:18 GMT -6
I heard that as well. It's actually talking about North American snow and ice cover way up there in Canada. Arctic sea ice extents are basically in a perpetual state of being at or near record lows year round now as the Arctic continues to warm at a rate 2.5x as fast as the global mean. There's actually a theory called WACCy which stands for Warm Arctic Cold Continent which says that as the Arctic region continues to warm it will displace some of the colder air further down in latitude, but it's basically an effect that is mostly confined to 60N or higher though it's possible we could see some Arctic air intrusions down here around 40N due to the effect. I'm not sure if October NA snow and ice coverage is a good discriminator of snow in St. Louis or not. Maybe someone else can chime in on that. I've been trying to find any climate index that has predictive power for us on a seasonal basis and I'm coming up short. The AMO does have a little predictive power, but not much. ENSO and PDO cycles have no skill at all for St. Louis as best I can tell. The global mean surface temperature has skill on a decadal basis. The more the Earth warms the less snow we get. But, there's really no seasonal skill with it either. I think the fact that we are in the middle of the country really reinforces the chaotic nature of weather system in general for us and that's why our snowy seasons seem to have a bigger element of chance than other parts of the country. I'm still poking around for anything with skill so if any of you have ideas let me know and I'll check it out. The EPO is the best predictor for the large scale pattern across the central US, IMO. October snow growth across Siberia and E Russia is a good predictor of the AO phase for winter...Cohen follows this closely when making his forecasts. Since I'm too lazy to do the research myself at the moment, how is that looking right now? |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 19, 2018 20:06:51 GMT -6
The EPO is the best predictor for the large scale pattern across the central US, IMO. October snow growth across Siberia and E Russia is a good predictor of the AO phase for winter...Cohen follows this closely when making his forecasts. Since I'm too lazy to do the research myself at the moment, how is that looking right now? Last I saw it wasn't good. |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Oct 19, 2018 21:12:35 GMT -6
Looks like WSC could see a bit of snow Saturday with a Manitoba Mauler swinging down across the OHV. I saw that, but surface temps look awfully warm. I'm really craving snow worse than any year I can remember. Been reading about the Groundhog Day blizzard. 70 mph winds and 20 inches of snow lol. Reminded me we had a blizzard warning for several counties. Wish I could find the thread, bet it was nuts. Ask and you shall receive |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 19, 2018 21:43:30 GMT -6
I saw that, but surface temps look awfully warm. I'm really craving snow worse than any year I can remember. Been reading about the Groundhog Day blizzard. 70 mph winds and 20 inches of snow lol. Reminded me we had a blizzard warning for several counties. Wish I could find the thread, bet it was nuts. Ask and you shall receiveAfter skimming that I had to read through the 2014 "blizzard" to make myself feel better lol. And wow, I don't want to read my own posts from high school. Brutal |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 20, 2018 7:08:59 GMT -6
Forecast soundings today from the NAM/GFS are showing a well mixed boundary layer up to 850mb (or even higher on the GFS), with 40kt winds at the top, and near constant direction through the whole PBL from the northwest. Ideal conditions for mixing down strong winds. I like to use 925mb winds in kts and as a rough guide for max wind wind gusts in mph at the surface. Winds at that level are expected to be around 35kts to even 40kts along and east of the Mississippi so I would not be surprised to see some max gusts of 35+mph this afternoon.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 20, 2018 7:19:05 GMT -6
Hanging in Cincinnati this weekend for parents weekend at Xavier. There is an outside shot we catch a few snowflakes with the front.
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Post by rb1108 on Oct 20, 2018 7:58:27 GMT -6
Does anyone remember the last time NOAA actually called for a below average winter temps? It seems like it has said warmer than normal year after year for a long time.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 20, 2018 8:10:17 GMT -6
Hanging in Cincinnati this weekend for parents weekend at Xavier. There is an outside shot we catch a few snowflakes with the front. Personally I've never had it but many friends who live in Ohio highly recommend Graeter's ice cream. It's a statewide favorite. They have storefronts scattered around Cincinnati. Just an FYI tourist tip |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 20, 2018 9:25:01 GMT -6
epo is neg turning positive....nao is negative
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Post by ElburnDave on Oct 20, 2018 12:48:50 GMT -6
So, this is happening today...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 20, 2018 12:59:12 GMT -6
I heard that as well. It's actually talking about North American snow and ice cover way up there in Canada. Arctic sea ice extents are basically in a perpetual state of being at or near record lows year round now as the Arctic continues to warm at a rate 2.5x as fast as the global mean. There's actually a theory called WACCy which stands for Warm Arctic Cold Continent which says that as the Arctic region continues to warm it will displace some of the colder air further down in latitude, but it's basically an effect that is mostly confined to 60N or higher though it's possible we could see some Arctic air intrusions down here around 40N due to the effect. I'm not sure if October NA snow and ice coverage is a good discriminator of snow in St. Louis or not. Maybe someone else can chime in on that. I've been trying to find any climate index that has predictive power for us on a seasonal basis and I'm coming up short. The AMO does have a little predictive power, but not much. ENSO and PDO cycles have no skill at all for St. Louis as best I can tell. The global mean surface temperature has skill on a decadal basis. The more the Earth warms the less snow we get. But, there's really no seasonal skill with it either. I think the fact that we are in the middle of the country really reinforces the chaotic nature of weather system in general for us and that's why our snowy seasons seem to have a bigger element of chance than other parts of the country. I'm still poking around for anything with skill so if any of you have ideas let me know and I'll check it out. The EPO is the best predictor for the large scale pattern across the central US, IMO. October snow growth across Siberia and E Russia is a good predictor of the AO phase for winter...Cohen follows this closely when making his forecasts. It definitely does pretty well with pointing towqrds time of increased storm activity in the central CONUS...but AO seems to be the best at cold air. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 20, 2018 13:00:36 GMT -6
I’d be happy with 30 inches this winter! 😂 We are more likely heading for 17 to 25 range imo. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 20, 2018 13:02:32 GMT -6
Hanging in Cincinnati this weekend for parents weekend at Xavier. There is an outside shot we catch a few snowflakes with the front. Personally I've never had it but many friends who live in Ohio highly recommend Graeter's ice cream. It's a statewide favorite. They have storefronts scattered around Cincinnati. Just an FYI tourist tip There is one right off Montgomery at Dana Ave...on southeast side of campus. We have been there and it is good. I still need some skyline chili... but my wife wont let me before we drive home. I cannot imagine why. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 20, 2018 13:03:35 GMT -6
So, this is happening today...
That looks outstanding! |
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