|
|
Post by jmg378s on Oct 21, 2019 16:18:57 GMT -6
NWS has assigned a damage rating of EF3 to last night's Dallas tornado.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 21, 2019 18:03:41 GMT -6
This story should be bookmarked and sent to any person who ever criticizes broadcasters for interupting their favorite show or sporting event with a tornado warning. www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4058771002Im sorry, but jobs should be lost for this. It is unacceptable. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Oct 21, 2019 18:36:01 GMT -6
wow, unbelievable that they would do that.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 21, 2019 18:46:24 GMT -6
The fact that a considerable segment of society favors entertainment over the safety and well being of themselves and others is appalling...heads should roll for sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Oct 21, 2019 19:14:31 GMT -6
This story should be bookmarked and sent to any person who ever criticizes broadcasters for interupting their favorite show or sporting event with a tornado warning. www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4058771002Im sorry, but jobs should be lost for this. It is unacceptable. Completely agree. I hope they get destroyed by bad publicity until those responsible are ousted! |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Oct 21, 2019 19:21:33 GMT -6
Sad, I wish I could say I'm surprised...but I'm not.
So this is, what, the 4th strong tornado to impact an urban area this year and I think only one of those (Dayton) resulted in a fatality (1) I think. That's pretty remarkable.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Oct 21, 2019 20:06:27 GMT -6
Wow- if they broke in they would have missed a play or two
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 21, 2019 20:14:48 GMT -6
An EF3 tornado in an area where theres no basements and storm cellars are not as common as one wld think...thats bad all around. Hopefully ppl did have a place to huddle.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 22, 2019 4:28:29 GMT -6
Some pretty significant differences in the models as early as Thursday night... and again late Saturday into Sunday...with the former directly resulting in the later.
The differences center around the handling of digging shortwave heading for the central plains. The GFS and NAM briefly try and cut this wave off before sending it eastward in a manner that could threaten some wet flakes in the cold air over central Missouri Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Euro, GEM, Euro ensembles...and to some extent... GFS ensembles...favor holding energy back to the southwest...instead waiting to eject that energy Saturday night into Sunday. This is a REALLY close call...with both the GFS and Euro holding to their individual forecasts for several runs in a row now. I am leaning...slightly...to something closer to the Euro/GEM solution...leaving at least some energy to the southwest while ejecting a piece (weaker/sheared) to the northeast late Thursday behind the cold front. Holding this energy back necessitates an increase in precip pops for Saturday night/Sunday. If that energy ejects Thursday (ala the GFS) then Sunday will be dry and nice.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Oct 22, 2019 7:58:27 GMT -6
My weather app has snow flakes for Halloween.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Oct 22, 2019 13:04:25 GMT -6
Last year I went through seasonal snowfall amounts and tried to find a correlation with a seasonally predictable climate index. The key word here is predictable. I am aware that there are correlations with various climate indices on a short lead time basis, but for those indices to be useful for seasonal snowfall forecast they have to be predictable months in advance. And AFAIK long lead time predictability is limited to monthly averages. Unfortunately I was not able to find any correlations with monthly averages for ENSO, PDO, ADO, etc. I've also looked at highly predictable indices like the solar cycle. Again...nothing that I can see.
With that said the CPC released their monthly ENSO report. ENSO neutral is favored through spring with higher odds for El Nino vs La Nina should something other than neutral develop.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 22, 2019 13:19:04 GMT -6
12z euro up to its old tricks over amping a cutter around the 31st.
Need a compromise between the euro and gfs to get some snow showers going.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2019 14:05:14 GMT -6
Last year I went through seasonal snowfall amounts and tried to find a correlation with a seasonally predictable climate index. The key word here is predictable. I am aware that there are correlations with various climate indices on a short lead time basis, but for those indices to be useful for seasonal snowfall forecast they have to be predictable months in advance. And AFAIK long lead time predictability is limited to monthly averages. Unfortunately I was not able to find any correlations with monthly averages for ENSO, PDO, ADO, etc. I've also looked at highly predictable indices like the solar cycle. Again...nothing that I can see. With that said the CPC released their monthly ENSO report. ENSO neutral is favored through spring with higher odds for El Nino vs La Nina should something other than neutral develop. I tend to think that our best winter setups come from ENSO neutral or weak El Nino conditions with high latitude blocking in the mix. I think it's likely that we see that this year but it's hard to predict where the predominant storm track will set up...I would tend to agree with beaker in that it will favor the Upper Midwest and Lakes Region as it often does...but stay close enough for frequent bouts of cold outbreaks and winter storms. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 22, 2019 16:13:29 GMT -6
My gut tells me we are in for a solid winter. I think this is year 2 of a 3 year stretch of good winters. Not a ton of science there but a little  . |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 22, 2019 20:06:17 GMT -6
My gut tells me we are in for a solid winter. I think this is year 2 of a 3 year stretch of good winters. Not a ton of science there but a little . Would u bet your Thanksgiving dinner on that, "gut" of yours? |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 22, 2019 20:35:38 GMT -6
Last year I went through seasonal snowfall amounts and tried to find a correlation with a seasonally predictable climate index. The key word here is predictable. I am aware that there are correlations with various climate indices on a short lead time basis, but for those indices to be useful for seasonal snowfall forecast they have to be predictable months in advance. And AFAIK long lead time predictability is limited to monthly averages. Unfortunately I was not able to find any correlations with monthly averages for ENSO, PDO, ADO, etc. I've also looked at highly predictable indices like the solar cycle. Again...nothing that I can see. With that said the CPC released their monthly ENSO report. ENSO neutral is favored through spring with higher odds for El Nino vs La Nina should something other than neutral develop. I tend to think that our best winter setups come from ENSO neutral or weak El Nino conditions with high latitude blocking in the mix. I think it's likely that we see that this year but it's hard to predict where the predominant storm track will set up...I would tend to agree with beaker in that it will favor the Upper Midwest and Lakes Region as it often does...but stay close enough for frequent bouts of cold outbreaks and winter storms. I think there has been a tendency for the predominant storm track to favor Iowa into Wisconsin, including southern MN, but where MO will cash in will be from the one or two secondary low developments over the southern plains, plus I think we will see a lot of clipper/clipper-esque type of systems. The magic non-scientific number I'm looking at is 20 inches of snow and while that's a little less than last winter, this winter should be colder, and it will probably feel a bit more wintry. The thing that bugs me the most, is that rainy patterns during the preceding year tend to lead to less snowy winters....otherwise, I might have pulled out the stops and gone with 30 plus inches. For us, this is just for fun, so sticking my neck out for a number is more akin to putting chips on a number in gambling - I try to put some kind of reasoning behind it, but there's no science. Last year my number was 24, and that was pretty close. I wish I had more time this year to look at this, but at the end of the day, there isn't any skill in season predictions. Atmosphere is too chaotic. Bottom line, is I think that we seem to get our best winters during enso neutral, and also right after El Nino subsides. We had a weak El Nino last year, iirc. Concerning points: So much rainfall so far this year, and that pattern is bound to end with a change of seasons; NAO has hesitated to go negative during the cold months. But other teleconnections have helped us and we are seeing an uptick in mid-latitude cyclones, obviously. Not much science in my forecasts, so the real scientists and statisticians feel free to chime in. Just thankful to have access to lots of data to be able to put at least some thought into it. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Oct 22, 2019 21:57:02 GMT -6
Borderline misses in November is like pissing away legit chances. Hey Frivo, I’m going to buy the EURO suite again this year. It looks like most sites you can be logged into two computers at once so I’ll send you my login info so you have that to use this year. Is there a site preference that has better maps I should subscribe from that you like to use and has the entire EURO suite? No preference. I really appreciate that tho. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 23, 2019 6:52:48 GMT -6
Good morning all.... the GFS/NAM (american combo) is definitely trending toward Euro-esque solution...especially with the 06z run. The timing of the rain has moved up a little bit for this weekend...it now looks like mid day Saturday through Sunday morning. The hardest part of the forecast was figuring out the transition from medium to long range and just how fast to bring in the big cold mid/late week. I followed the Euro ensembles for timing... but went quite a bit colder when the cold finally gets here.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 23, 2019 10:05:54 GMT -6
12z gfs showing something special for Monday
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 23, 2019 10:06:59 GMT -6
The GFS has a daytime snow on October 28th. I wonder how rare a daytime snow in October is around here
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 23, 2019 10:07:35 GMT -6
WSC you keep beating me by seconds lol
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Oct 23, 2019 10:26:29 GMT -6
It would be a heavy snow that would be fun to watch and probably would stick to nothing until the very end. Bring it on.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Oct 23, 2019 10:27:06 GMT -6
Holy smokes this will be my 11th winter on this forum. Amazing.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 23, 2019 10:36:00 GMT -6
The GFS has a daytime snow on October 28th. I wonder how rare a daytime snow in October is around here 1993 just before Halloween was a daytime snow. Did not stick but i understand columbia got accums. It was a day of snow showers throughout the day. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 23, 2019 10:39:40 GMT -6
Good morning all.... the GFS/NAM (american combo) is definitely trending toward Euro-esque solution...especially with the 06z run. The timing of the rain has moved up a little bit for this weekend...it now looks like mid day Saturday through Sunday morning. The hardest part of the forecast was figuring out the transition from medium to long range and just how fast to bring in the big cold mid/late week. I followed the Euro ensembles for timing... but went quite a bit colder when the cold finally gets here. You were talking up the end of next week but i was getting ready for work and didnt catch details. The gfs to me shows a nuisance rain over a period of time followed by cold....a rain to cold situation. |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 23, 2019 10:50:35 GMT -6
Good morning all.... the GFS/NAM (american combo) is definitely trending toward Euro-esque solution...especially with the 06z run. The timing of the rain has moved up a little bit for this weekend...it now looks like mid day Saturday through Sunday morning. The hardest part of the forecast was figuring out the transition from medium to long range and just how fast to bring in the big cold mid/late week. I followed the Euro ensembles for timing... but went quite a bit colder when the cold finally gets here. Man the rain this weekend is going to suck. Lots of trunk or treats. Being that Halloween looks cold, i was hoping to get a few in with kids. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 23, 2019 11:02:31 GMT -6
12z ggem and ukmet look quite a bit different than the gfs, so I would consider it extremely suspect at the moment with regards to next week.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Oct 23, 2019 11:05:17 GMT -6
My guess is the EURO will split the difference between these two. And probably be right.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Oct 23, 2019 11:05:37 GMT -6
12z ggem and ukmet look quite a bit different than the gfs, so I would consider it extremely suspect at the moment with regards to next week. oh, you mean like every run of the gfs, every day? lol |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 23, 2019 12:45:33 GMT -6
Looks like the Euro has a Halloween snowstorm here
|
|
. 
