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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2019 7:18:46 GMT -6
We all know an historic blizzard is coming. Its just a matter of if and when. "So you're saying there's a chance?" |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 24, 2019 7:39:28 GMT -6
We all know an historic blizzard is coming. Its just a matter of if and when. "So you're saying there's a chance?" Well, the record snowfall for Oct 30 and 31 is a trace... so it doesn't take much to be "historic" |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2019 7:48:31 GMT -6
"So you're saying there's a chance?" Well, the record snowfall for Oct 30 and 31 is a trace... so it doesn't take much to be "historic" When you put it into that context any chances for snow in October is impressive around here! And what the 00z EURO is cooking up certainly classifies as historic...it develops a full blown blizzard across central IL. That said...the differences between the GFS and EC by D4 continue to be astounding. So far the EC seems to have the edge with the GFS being too progressive so that's something to keep in mind as we head into the season. But the EC still seems to hold energy back in the SW for too long as well which it's done for years. |
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 24, 2019 8:22:28 GMT -6
I guess I better get snow equipment out and make sure it all is operational for another season. Usually try to get this done by October 15th but has been a very busy year so far. NOT YET!!! don't jinx us Don’t need snow in October in these parts. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 24, 2019 8:35:35 GMT -6
Don’t need snow in October in these parts. Snow in october is possibly a once in 25 year event. I remember it in 93 and i seem to remember it as a very small child. There have been predictions of rain to flurries on halloween in the late 90s but i think what we got was a blustery, damp feel and the moisture was squeezed out as the cold air arrived. It was more of a rain to cold event. If we get any precip with the setup, thats the sceario i wld just assume for now that we wld get. That said, models generally have timing issues with transitioning patterns. It cld very well be dry and cold, supporting a killing freeze...or cloudy keeping the temp from free falling as much. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 24, 2019 8:51:07 GMT -6
I've thought about this as well. Quantum computing may be able to help with data assimilation, but we are still at the mercy of sampling only a infinitesimally small part of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. In other words models will still be input constrained. I suspect models will probably incorporate quantum computing elements slowly. The models will likely be developed and ran as a hydrid classical-quantum system. This means that the numerical core may remain classical with quantum sub-simulations assisting with parameterization schemes and various other components at least at first. Another path might be to use artificial neural networks for the parameterization schemes as well. With quantum supremacy just around the corner we might be transitioning from the digital revolution to the quantum revolution. Fun times. |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 24, 2019 9:02:40 GMT -6
I've thought about this as well. Quantum computing may be able to help with data assimilation, but we are still at the mercy of sampling only a infinitesimally small part of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. In other words models will still be input constrained. I suspect models will probably incorporate quantum computing elements slowly. The models will likely be developed and ran as a hydrid classical-quantum system. This means that the numerical core may remain classical with quantum sub-simulations assisting with parameterization schemes and various other components at least at first. Another path might be to use artificial neural networks for the parameterization schemes as well. With quantum supremacy just around the corner we might be transitioning from the digital revolution to the quantum revolution. Fun times. What he said. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 24, 2019 9:17:05 GMT -6
I guess I better get snow equipment out and make sure it all is operational for another season. Usually try to get this done by October 15th but has been a very busy year so far. Don't jinx the snow chance away next week haha |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2019 9:33:45 GMT -6
I've thought about this as well. Quantum computing may be able to help with data assimilation, but we are still at the mercy of sampling only a infinitesimally small part of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. In other words models will still be input constrained. I suspect models will probably incorporate quantum computing elements slowly. The models will likely be developed and ran as a hydrid classical-quantum system. This means that the numerical core may remain classical with quantum sub-simulations assisting with parameterization schemes and various other components at least at first. Another path might be to use artificial neural networks for the parameterization schemes as well. With quantum supremacy just around the corner we might be transitioning from the digital revolution to the quantum revolution. Fun times. What he said. Took the words right out of my mouth... |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 9:52:34 GMT -6
12z Icon now strongly supports the euro.
Let’s see if the gfs climbs aboard.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 24, 2019 10:05:01 GMT -6
Took the words right out of my mouth... It's like the picture that circulates around Christmas of one house decorated with a million lights, and the house next to it with a sign that says "DITTO --->". |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 10:10:56 GMT -6
12z gfs is cold and boring next week.
No Frankenstorm on the American model.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 24, 2019 10:15:31 GMT -6
Indont expect much support for frankenstorm until maybe Monday. It wasnt until yeaterday... 4 days before this weekend's storm... that if finally caught on. It will be interesting to see if the same math works with next week' POSSIBLE event.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 24, 2019 10:47:22 GMT -6
Ahhhh... for the first time this season... the melting layer is visible on radar  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 11:03:25 GMT -6
12z ggem joining team Frankenstorm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 24, 2019 11:20:02 GMT -6
Some impressive thundersnow taking place across the TX panhandle and western OK
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 24, 2019 11:36:26 GMT -6
I've thought about this as well. Quantum computing may be able to help with data assimilation, but we are still at the mercy of sampling only a infinitesimally small part of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. In other words models will still be input constrained. I suspect models will probably incorporate quantum computing elements slowly. The models will likely be developed and ran as a hydrid classical-quantum system. This means that the numerical core may remain classical with quantum sub-simulations assisting with parameterization schemes and various other components at least at first. Another path might be to use artificial neural networks for the parameterization schemes as well. With quantum supremacy just around the corner we might be transitioning from the digital revolution to the quantum revolution. Fun times. Here's the catch though... The main benefit I see is getting a forecast faster rather than getting a forecast better...which is still very useful. The problem with the latter is chaos theory and intrinsic predictability, i.e. at some point even with perfect initial conditions there is a lead time at which weather forecasts won't be any better than climatology. So what is that limit? I've heard estimates floated around before, but hot off the press just this year is research that really tries to answer that question. See What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather? Currently with the use of ensembles we can get about 10 days of skillful forecasts and we gain about 1 day per decade with incremental improvements in observations and modeling. (Side note: That's per the academic definition of "skillful" rather than the Joe Public perception of skillful. And oh by the way we're talking weather here not climate.) This research suggest the limit of predictability could be as short as 14 days...let that sink in for moment. So, if correct, no matter what we do we may get to the point in just 4 decades where beyond two weeks we're just calculating the wrong answer faster. When it comes to weather maybe what we really need is a mathematical breakthrough rather than a computational breakthrough? |
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 24, 2019 12:35:54 GMT -6
Even of we get a disting to a inch in st.Louis on haloween, i have never seen such potential so early in the season in my young life let alone the risk of maybe some accumulations.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 24, 2019 12:39:40 GMT -6
Tropical Low developing in the Gulf, could become a depression or even a weak storm, this will be part of the energy of Saturday's system. Looking more and more likely that Saturday and Saturday night could be a super soaker.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 24, 2019 12:42:24 GMT -6
Nationals really giving the Astros a beating. My gentlemen's bet is that they will take it all the way and take the 2019 WS title. They got some serious heavy hitters. Last game they were knocking them out of the park with a double digit win of 12 to 3.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 12:44:14 GMT -6
12z euro goes full nuclear sun for Halloween with a monster Frankenstorm bomber cyclone
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 12:45:43 GMT -6
Nationals really giving the Astros a beating. My gentlemen's bet is that they will take it all the way and take the 2019 WS title. They got some serious heavy hitters. Last game they were knocking them out of the park with a double digit win of 12 to 3. Being up 2-0 in a four game series and actually being a really good team makes this a pretty reasonable statistical bet. I’m sure 538 has them over 65% |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 24, 2019 12:45:53 GMT -6
12z euro goes full nuclear sun for Halloween with a monster Frankenstorm bomber cyclone Consensus is for a solid Halloween storm, seems like a certainty at this point. Just a matter of how it all pans out and where the snow line is going to be and exact track. Something that won't be known for several days yet. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 12:48:55 GMT -6
12z euro goes full nuclear sun for Halloween with a monster Frankenstorm bomber cyclone Consensus is for a solid Halloween storm, seems like a certainty at this point. Just a matter of how it all pans out and where the snow line is going to be and exact track. Something that won't be known for several days yet. The euro continues to slow it down and other models are just coming aboard so I would definitely wait until Sunday at 12z to believe anything. Still fun to look at a 32 mb drop in pressure in 24 hours. Pretty sure I will purchase a kite and fly it off my rooftop if that happens |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 24, 2019 12:54:09 GMT -6
Nationals really giving the Astros a beating. My gentlemen's bet is that they will take it all the way and take the 2019 WS title. They got some serious heavy hitters. Last game they were knocking them out of the park with a double digit win of 12 to 3. Being up 2-0 in a four game series and actually being a really good team makes this a pretty reasonable statistical bet. I’m sure 538 has them over 65% I told my buddy after the swept the Cards that I didn't care who they faced, I expected a sweep in the WS as well, or at the very least the opposing team only wins one. The Nats are that team we see from time to time in pro sports that just absolutely catches fire and it's clear nothing will put it out. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 24, 2019 13:00:24 GMT -6
To support the Euro, history is littered with big time mid latitude cyclones this time of year.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 24, 2019 13:05:03 GMT -6
12z euro goes full nuclear sun for Halloween with a monster Frankenstorm bomber cyclone Compared to last nights run it’s a little slower and weaker to eject but still bombs out once the trough goes negative. Fun system to watch |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 13:10:29 GMT -6
12z euro goes full nuclear sun for Halloween with a monster Frankenstorm bomber cyclone Compared to last nights run it’s a little slower and weaker to eject but still bombs out once the trough goes negative. Fun system to watch Yeah, thought the snow shield would advance further east from what I saw on the surface charts. Broad strokes look fun at this range, but would be nice if we all got a couple hours of heavy snow out of it instead of just wind damage. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2019 13:10:30 GMT -6
Consensus is for a solid Halloween storm, seems like a certainty at this point. Just a matter of how it all pans out and where the snow line is going to be and exact track. Something that won't be known for several days yet. The euro continues to slow it down and other models are just coming aboard so I would definitely wait until Sunday at 12z to believe anything. Still fun to look at a 32 mb drop in pressure in 24 hours. Pretty sure I will purchase a kite and fly it off my rooftop if that happens The slowing/semi-cutoff trend would allow the cold air out front to wash out and allow a cutter to develop...just another scenario to consider. |
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 24, 2019 13:12:17 GMT -6
The euro continues to slow it down and other models are just coming aboard so I would definitely wait until Sunday at 12z to believe anything. Still fun to look at a 32 mb drop in pressure in 24 hours. Pretty sure I will purchase a kite and fly it off my rooftop if that happens The slowing/semi-cutoff trend would allow the cold air out front to wash out and allow a cutter to develop...just another scenario to consider. My guess |
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