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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 24, 2019 13:31:48 GMT -6
Huge cutter another minneapolis Halloween super bomb like 1991
I think it was
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2019 13:34:54 GMT -6
The slowing/semi-cutoff trend would allow the cold air out front to wash out and allow a cutter to develop...just another scenario to consider. My guess That would definitely fit climo...somewhere between ND and IN is going to get walloped. You have to love this large scale pattern though...hard to believe this pattern wouldn't re-emerge several times during the true cold season. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 13:39:18 GMT -6
About 15% of gfs ensemble members support secondary development.
They are much quicker though giving STL east a legitimate shot at snow.
We know the gfs has a progressive bias and the euro tends to hold energy back too long, so I think it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Oct 24, 2019 13:41:09 GMT -6
Weather models will never ascend based on process of elimination and averages.
The largest missing ingredient is that we can't quantify nor do we really understand with every step the process of solar energy to sensible weather.
That's a huge transfer of energy and momentum and this takes place everywhere on Earth every moment of practical existence.
Almost like energy to matter except far more volitile or chaotic.
Or maybe we feel the chaos because we don't understand.
Then to have:
Tidal forces
Wind friction (pressure)
Water vapor
Techtonic forcing
Ocean current, density, and transfer of energy though motion and temperature
I'm done ranting but we conceptualize basic atmospheric conditions though math giving us a purely physical model that degrades from the first minute past GO.
Not because of SAMPLING
But because the SUNS EFFECT on the atmosphere is infinite in...
Time and sphere of influence
So figure out exactly how solar energy causes atmospheric vorticity.
Which requires an understanding of how SOLAR ENERGY INTERACTS WITH EVERY OTHER PROCESS THAT ALSO EFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC VORTICITY.
I think the only way we ever conquer this is building an intuitive drop learning AI THAT OVER TIME PROBLEM SOLVES THE ENTIRE SUN, EARTH, ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION THEN IT STILL WONT MATTER...
BECAUSE THE SUNS OUTPUT IS INFINITELY CHANGING.
SO I DOUBT WE EVER PERFECT ANY LEVEL OF WEATHER FORECASTS BEYOND 12 HOURS
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 24, 2019 13:45:12 GMT -6
Looks like a 5 wave pattern as we move in November- should be a bit progressive for awhile.... but can see why the GFS doesn't wrap this up- doesn't see any ridging in the SE U.S.- keeps it from wrapping up.  But I do agree BRTN... this pattern should be rather frequent with the EPO- think this should be the dominant feature this winter. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2019 13:46:33 GMT -6
Weather models will never ascend based on process of elimination and averages. The largest missing ingredient is that we can't quantify nor do we really understand with every step the process of solar energy to sensible weather. That's a huge transfer of energy and momentum and this takes place everywhere on Earth every moment of practical existence. Almost like energy to matter except far more volitile or chaotic. Or maybe we feel the chaos because we don't understand. Then to have: Tidal forces Wind friction (pressure) Water vapor Techtonic forcing Ocean current, density, and transfer of energy though motion and temperature I'm done ranting but we conceptualize basic atmospheric conditions though math giving us a purely physical model that degrades from the first minute past GO. Not because of SAMPLING But because the SUNS EFFECT on the atmosphere is infinite in... Time and sphere of influence So figure out exactly how solar energy causes atmospheric vorticity. Which requires an understanding of how SOLAR ENERGY INTERACTS WITH EVERY OTHER PROCESS THAT ALSO EFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC VORTICITY. I think the only way we ever conquer this is building an intuitive drop learning AI THAT OVER TIME PROBLEM SOLVES THE ENTIRE SUN, EARTH, ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION THEN IT STILL WONT MATTER... BECAUSE THE SUNS OUTPUT IS INFINITELY CHANGING. SO I DOUBT WE EVER PERFECT ANY LEVEL OF WEATHER FORECASTS BEYOND 12 HOURS We already know all this about the sun: m.youtube.com/watch?v=me06I9GDM_k |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 24, 2019 15:07:50 GMT -6
At this point the NWS forecast for Halloween is sunny and 48. Kids would still need coats but no flakes flying
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 24, 2019 17:03:09 GMT -6
At this point the NWS forecast for Halloween is sunny and 48. Kids would still need coats but no flakes flying NWS typically factors in climo more heavily in the later part of their forecast...as well as ensembles which are going to smoothe out some of the more extreme operational solutions. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 24, 2019 17:27:33 GMT -6
At this point the NWS forecast for Halloween is sunny and 48. Kids would still need coats but no flakes flying NWS typically factors in climo more heavily in the later part of their forecast...as well as ensembles which are going to smoothe out some of the more extreme operational solutions. Good point! It's rare to see the NWS or a forecasting outlet forecast model runs verbatim from operational model runs especially in a season (fall) now when snow is not common at all. I would be anxious to hear your view on ensemble forecasting in the future? I believe ensemble forecasting will become much more common and advanced soon. It already is, but I mean in a way which the news outlets start using it in the future for TV forecasts to the public. NWS uses mos and other blends right now. Many advanced forecasters use it, that's why I think it's the best way to go when it comes to the 3-5 day (medium range) window for sure. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Oct 24, 2019 17:44:00 GMT -6
Good point! It's rare to see the NWS or a forecasting outlet forecast model runs verbatim from operational model runs especially in a season (fall) now when snow is not common at all. I would be anxious to hear your view on ensemble forecasting in the future? I believe ensemble forecasting will become much more common and advanced soon. It already is, but I mean in a way which the news outlets start using it in the future for TV forecasts to the public. NWS uses mos and other blends right now. Many use it, I think it's the best way to go when it comes to the 3-5 day ahead window for sure. I love MOS data only problem is I can only find it for the FV3 and NAM. Anyone got other resources for more MOS data? Otherwise I revert to the 3hr charts. Also a big player I think a lot of people are missing out since it’s considered an underdog just as an FYI - but I have been studying all the model trends religiously and tracking all the temp profiles weekly but the ICON is (yes IS) comparable to the EURO in terms of temp at day 4/5/6. It’s been remarkably accurate lately in that timeframe. Also - FRIV check your PMs I sent you the EURO login. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 24, 2019 18:31:28 GMT -6
Models are trending higher with QPF amounts for this weekend. 18Z Euro went big with 2.1" at the airport. NHC gives 97L 70% odds of developing. This isn't surprising given the well above average SSTs in the GOM right now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 24, 2019 23:37:33 GMT -6
GEFS members are starting to favor the secondary development like the euro
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 25, 2019 0:21:53 GMT -6
GEFS members are starting to favor the secondary development like the euro 2-4 inches right up 44 in MO on the mean, lol. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 25, 2019 0:58:27 GMT -6
Euro has several inches of rain over the next week. No snow though.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 25, 2019 7:31:26 GMT -6
We're going to have to watch 97L. The Euro has it as a 989mb extratropical low just to the east of downtown with most of the rain shield on the west side. 2-3" for the metro is what the 6Z Euro is now saying.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 25, 2019 7:40:11 GMT -6
Assuming 97L's remnants do make it close to Missouri (and that seems like a high probability call at this point) then this will be yet another bang-up job by the Euro. Even out in the D5-D7 range the Euro was already suggesting this. The GFS and UKMET...suppressed way to the south at those lead times.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 8:17:05 GMT -6
Assuming 97L's remnants do make it close to Missouri (and that seems like a high probability call at this point) then this will be yet another bang-up job by the Euro. Even out in the D5-D7 range the Euro was already suggesting this. The GFS and UKMET...suppressed way to the south at those lead times. Due in large part to the poor handling of the shortwave/cutoff that is now sitting over Oklahoma. Up until 36 hours ago...the GFS had us sunny and dry this weekend. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 25, 2019 8:38:59 GMT -6
Assuming 97L's remnants do make it close to Missouri (and that seems like a high probability call at this point) then this will be yet another bang-up job by the Euro. Even out in the D5-D7 range the Euro was already suggesting this. The GFS and UKMET...suppressed way to the south at those lead times. Due in large part to the poor handling of the shortwave/cutoff that is now sitting over Oklahoma. Up until 36 hours ago...the GFS had us sunny and dry this weekend. Huge swing and miss by the GFS... |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 25, 2019 9:26:40 GMT -6
Tropical system in the Gulf has now been designated TD #17 as of the 10am advisory.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 25, 2019 9:32:40 GMT -6
OK, friends. I've been out of the model/forecast loop for a couple days. Our Booster Club golf tournament is tomorrow. We've discussed pushing it to Sunday (or next week). The course superintendent said he heard no rain until midday tomorrow. I was figuring more at daybreak. Opinions, please...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 9:34:54 GMT -6
OK, friends. I've been out of the model/forecast loop for a couple days. Our Booster Club golf tournament is tomorrow. We've discussed pushing it to Sunday (or next week). The course superintendent said he heard no rain until midday tomorrow. I was figuring more at daybreak. Opinions, please... Move it. Daybreak. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 25, 2019 9:41:32 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow is looking more and more like a washout...gonna be a wet opening day for ducks.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 25, 2019 9:50:15 GMT -6
What are ground temps currently running? I'm thinking it would take an awfully intense dump of snow to get accumulation considering only a few weeks ago temps were still 90.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 25, 2019 9:55:40 GMT -6
What are ground temps currently running? I'm thinking it would take an awfully intense dump of snow to get accumulation considering only a few weeks ago temps were still 90. Haven't checked but would think they are running in the 50s. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 25, 2019 10:00:29 GMT -6
What are ground temps currently running? I'm thinking it would take an awfully intense dump of snow to get accumulation considering only a few weeks ago temps were still 90. Haven't checked but would think they are running in the 50s. You are right! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 10:04:16 GMT -6
12z gfs starting to really cave to the euro.
Won’t be long now
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 10:12:22 GMT -6
What are ground temps currently running? I'm thinking it would take an awfully intense dump of snow to get accumulation considering only a few weeks ago temps were still 90. Pavement and grass have low specific heat capacity. If it were to snow heavily (around an inch per hour) and surface temps were around 31-32, it would accumulate. Certainly a discussion that would be more interesting if the euro comes out quicker and further east with the secondary low. Otherwise, we are all getting rain which is the most likely scenario |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 25, 2019 10:14:10 GMT -6
12z gfs starting to really cave to the euro. Won’t be long now A blend of the GFS and Euro would be ideal. Similar to what the GEFS mean is showing |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 10:16:01 GMT -6
12z gfs starting to really cave to the euro. Won’t be long now A blend of the GFS and Euro would be ideal. Similar to what the GEFS mean is showing Agreed, definitely a low percentage play. Still nice to be back in winter mode though. Love having these MLCs back in play. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 11:16:50 GMT -6
The GEM has changed considerably in the wed-fri timeframe...now holding energy waaaaaay back. Doesnt eject until much later.
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