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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 11:21:52 GMT -6
The GEM has changed considerably in the wed-fri timeframe...now holding energy waaaaaay back. Doesnt eject until much later. 12z ukmet looks good |
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 25, 2019 11:48:44 GMT -6
Sorry to say WSC... but you look like you miss out this winter  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 11:53:49 GMT -6
At least my weather won’t be “Icky” Coz....
12z gefs mean printing out 2-5 inches for the STL metro next week.
That is a crazy number from an ensemble at this range for that region and the time of year.
About 20% of members wallop the area.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 25, 2019 11:59:20 GMT -6
Sorry to say WSC... but you look like you miss out this winter That forecast makes zero sense from a meteorological standpoint, lol. "Typically tropical" made me laugh though. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 25, 2019 12:33:41 GMT -6
Wow brtn i was going to use those exact words about making sense lol. Im pretty sure the ppl that come up with that trash just do so in a bar, on a bunch of bar napkins. My hunch is they started drinking a few hours earlier.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 25, 2019 12:36:39 GMT -6
At hr 156 the euro is much further south with the upper level low and a tick slower compared to last nights run
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 12:37:14 GMT -6
Frankenstorm remains on the 12z euro.
I’m now confident some storm will exist next week and that some extreme weather will occur in the Midwest.
That’s fun
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 25, 2019 12:41:39 GMT -6
Frankenstorm remains on the 12z euro. I’m now confident some storm will exist next week and that some extreme weather will occur in the Midwest. That’s fun Halloween mauler for Northern Mo to Northern IL on that run. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 12:42:59 GMT -6
Frankenstorm remains on the 12z euro. I’m now confident some storm will exist next week and that some extreme weather will occur in the Midwest. That’s fun Halloween mauler for Northern Mo to Northern IL on that run. Probably just ease it all a bit east and call it a day... |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 25, 2019 13:12:19 GMT -6
Sorry to say WSC... but you look like you miss out this winter That forecast makes zero sense from a meteorological standpoint, lol. "Typically tropical" made me laugh though. I think Wet and Wild sounds like a... You figure the rest out. Lol!! 🤣🤣😂😂 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 14:37:18 GMT -6
All I can say is based on the 12z data I'm glad I've kept it cold and wet "with a few wet flakes possible" for late Wednesday night into thursday AM. Now... my timing of the event may still be off by as much as a day...but the thought has been planted in peoples minds... and that's really all that matters at this point...especially with the weekend here. Folks wont pay too close of attention to the exact timing until early next week. Hopefully by then we'll have a better feel for that.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 25, 2019 14:43:11 GMT -6
TS OLGA is born slated to track straight into Illinois over the next 24-36 hours (extratropical) by that time.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 25, 2019 14:46:15 GMT -6
Tropical storm Olga in the Gulf now. For a few hours anyway till merges with the front. Also Pablo out in the Atlantic.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 25, 2019 14:46:15 GMT -6
Looks like a solid 3-5" rain event kicking off just after midnight tonight with the heaviest between 6AM-12PM followed by a brief break between 12-3PM with the trowal/deformation zone kicking though between 3-9PM. Look for some gusty winds tomorrow afternoon and evening as well as the system deepens and the high out west starts to nose in.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 25, 2019 15:05:50 GMT -6
I had noticed that storm trending a bit to the west compared to earlier runs. It even looked like a nw track a bit. We are in for alot of rain saturday. My daughter said she had plans for some halloween outing tomorrow in cwe. Not happening.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 15:41:33 GMT -6
In anticipation of the heavy rain... back yard grass cut, leaves and pine needles collected. With this kind of rain it will likely be wet now until spring.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 25, 2019 15:56:46 GMT -6
Gross lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 16:11:15 GMT -6
18z GfS is flinching...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 16:17:19 GMT -6
Correction...it isnt flinching... it has flipped solutions...I figured umit might take another run or two. it now looks better than the euro lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 16:23:49 GMT -6
It is a thing of beauty... if only it would happend just that way lol.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 25, 2019 16:28:22 GMT -6
Yea that would be nice haha. A lot of this will come down to how that lead wave acts on Monday night.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 25, 2019 16:30:00 GMT -6
Can we lock that run in please
Its output is now matching what its ensembles have been suggesting for a few runs
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 16:41:10 GMT -6
Can we lock that run in please Its output is now matching what its ensembles have been suggesting for a few runs Glorious run, but so much time for it to trend further west and cuttier |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 16:43:57 GMT -6
Oh.. plenty can go wrong with that is for sure... but it does support the overall forecast I have been running with for the past two days.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 16:47:03 GMT -6
Oh.. plenty can go wrong with that is for sure... but it does support the overall forecast I have been running with for the past two days. That’s why you are the professional. But if you are going to be right start predicting historic events in the true winter months so we get feet of snow |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 25, 2019 16:50:28 GMT -6
Can we lock that run in please Its output is now matching what its ensembles have been suggesting for a few runs Glorious run, but so much time for it to trend further west and cuttier Euro ensembles are much further NW which I have a feeling will be the correct solution. Time will tell |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 16:56:37 GMT -6
Glorious run, but so much time for it to trend further west and cuttier Euro ensembles are much further NW which I have a feeling will be the correct solution. Time will tell that will work too. I just need cold, some rain and a few flakes to make me happy and verify the forecast. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 16:57:52 GMT -6
Glorious run, but so much time for it to trend further west and cuttier Euro ensembles are much further NW which I have a feeling will be the correct solution. Time will tell [br To be fair it has the bias of being way too slow, so until we are within 96 hours it has to be questioned when showing something being held back. I would say somewhere between the 00z euro and 18z gfs. I think KC to Kirksville is looking good. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2019 17:05:47 GMT -6
Euro ensembles are much further NW which I have a feeling will be the correct solution. Time will tell [br To be fair it has the bias of being way too slow, so until we are within 96 hours it has to be questioned when showing something being held back. I would say somewhere between the 00z euro and 18z gfs. I think KC to Kirksville is looking good. That's a reasonable assessment |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 25, 2019 17:06:44 GMT -6
The 18z GEFS is just ridiculous for this time of year. It shows a mean of almost a foot of snow from Joplin to Jeff city
That's likely using 10:1 ratios which would be to high but still
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