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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 25, 2019 17:14:06 GMT -6
It’s fun to look at but I would be shocked if this ends up being any further SE than Omaha or maybe KC.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 25, 2019 17:18:44 GMT -6
Mother nature never ceases to amaze me! Such beauty!  |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 25, 2019 17:33:54 GMT -6
The 18z GEFS is just ridiculous for this time of year. It shows a mean of almost a foot of snow from Joplin to Jeff city
That's likely using 10:1 ratios which would be to high but still
Snow depth product is 5". Still historic. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 25, 2019 18:07:19 GMT -6
 We all got beautiful weather before the big rain |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 25, 2019 18:39:46 GMT -6
GFS is slowly bowing to the EURO
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 25, 2019 19:45:03 GMT -6
Can't believe we are already seeing all this digital snow on the models. Time flies and if you remember it was just in the 90s just over 3 wks ago 😲. Over the whole 18z GFS run snow totals...just around 1/8 the total "forecasted" digital snow without Kucherio snow conversations (more like 1/5 after taking that into account) would be historic for October climatology records! Oh so much potential, oh so exciting! Something still doesn't seem right, is it all a dream with this recent data? I hope not. I'll take flurries like Chris is saying! I would be so happy if we just got 1in haha!!
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 25, 2019 23:37:33 GMT -6
Gefs jumping north
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 26, 2019 1:03:06 GMT -6
Euro hardly has anything snow wise in MO anymore. Doesn't even get to 32 at Lambert with the "cold" airmass. Lol. Boring.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 26, 2019 5:52:03 GMT -6
Looks like rain maybe a little further east than thought? Looks like I might be on west fringe.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 26, 2019 5:53:23 GMT -6
Models have really, really cut back on the cold air mass for Halloween with the GFS now holding it off until Election day but the 6z keeps snow chances coming after the 6th. Probably shouldn't be surprised as getting near freezing temps on Halloween or before just isn't favored. Sadly next week is just an instant repeat of today with boatloads of rain and average to below average temps.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 26, 2019 5:54:58 GMT -6
Looks like rain maybe a little further east than thought? Looks like I might be on west fringe. Axis of heaviest rain will be in Illinois. That's not all that surprising given the track of the tropical remnant, which will be taking up the main low this afternoon as it 'mini' bombs out over central Illinois. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 26, 2019 7:51:49 GMT -6
Models have really, really cut back on the cold air mass for Halloween with the GFS now holding it off until Election day but the 6z keeps snow chances coming after the 6th. Probably shouldn't be surprised as getting near freezing temps on Halloween or before just isn't favored. Sadly next week is just an instant repeat of today with boatloads of rain and average to below average temps. Our average first freeze is right around halloween. But that is typically on a clear night. |
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Post by amstilost on Oct 26, 2019 8:48:30 GMT -6
If this 'pattern' occurred when we have cold air in place over us, is this not a 'pattern' to praise going into the winter??? or would it scour out the cold air to quickly to be of any snow benefit to us???
And again, why do I keep getting the "Not Secure" in the address bar to the left of our address??? When I try and sign in it redirects me to another page saying my passwords on this page are not safe. WTH
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 26, 2019 8:52:50 GMT -6
it'll be a problem if lows keep ejecting northeast out of south-central Oklahoma. Need the pattern to dig a little more.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 26, 2019 8:54:26 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 26, 2019 9:01:00 GMT -6
My kid's soccer game is GO. He's excited to play in the rain.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 26, 2019 9:26:43 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 26, 2019 9:32:21 GMT -6
If the wind is light, im looking forward to sitting outside with a fire going, if i can get the wood to dry out. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 26, 2019 9:59:54 GMT -6
12z gfs truly does have a beast of a storm.
Alas, we don’t live where it snows in October.
Think we might get some nasty ice events if this type of pattern repeats in the cold months.
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Post by bear1 on Oct 26, 2019 10:07:20 GMT -6
If this 'pattern' occurred when we have cold air in place over us, is this not a 'pattern' to praise going into the winter??? or would it scour out the cold air to quickly to be of any snow benefit to us??? And again, why do I keep getting the "Not Secure" in the address bar to the left of our address??? When I try and sign in it redirects me to another page saying my passwords on this page are not safe. WTH If you're seeing the Not Secure error, it likely means that your site doesn't have an SSL certificate and is not using the HTTPS protocol. The notification does not mean that your site is compromised or not functioning correctly. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 26, 2019 10:08:35 GMT -6
It’s not accumulating snow, but the GFS would have a cold and windy Halloween for us with some wrap around flakes. Still very impressive for this time of year
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 26, 2019 10:11:12 GMT -6
Cutter to the NE...we have seen this all too many times. Let's see if the EURO continues cutter to the NE as well providing snow for SE Nebraska, northwestern MO, IOWA, etc then it may be a true trend!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 26, 2019 10:20:27 GMT -6
It’s not accumulating snow, but the GFS would have a cold and windy Halloween for us with some wrap around flakes. Still very impressive for this time of year Weve seen this scenario play out on halloween more often with these kind of storms. In moat cases the big story is the wind with little or no flakeage. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 26, 2019 10:36:44 GMT -6
This might make trick r treating difficult  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Oct 26, 2019 11:35:11 GMT -6
Already over an inch of rain down this way
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 26, 2019 11:41:56 GMT -6
.61 so far in st.peters perfect soaking
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 26, 2019 12:12:54 GMT -6
That wind is going to force me not to have a campfire. Every year the neighbors all get their firepits out and we just hang out. There are even some who bbq brats and give them to the adults. My subdivision is the place to be for Halloween but any winds over 10 mph is not a good thing for fires. Oh well, maybe next year.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 26, 2019 12:14:14 GMT -6
If you all could see the setup we have in my nephews backyard in St Chuck to cook apple butter! Tarps over tables and fire! The apples are cooked, mashed and now the stirring is going on! In the rain under shelter! Unreal!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 26, 2019 12:21:12 GMT -6
I see no reason to remove "mixed with wet flakes" for Thursday. If you take the GFS verbatim, there should be some solid snow showers in the tightly cyclonic curvature under saturated conditions at 850mb.
What is really amazing to me is how completely aweful the GFS has been in the 6+ day timeframe with these last two systems. If you believed the GFS (which some folks I know follow exclusively) then you forecast a dry weekend... and dry Wed/thu for next week. This weekend is obviously wet and it seems likely that Wed/Thu will be wet, cold and windy. The GFS was lost, everything else sniffed it out. In particular, I have found the ensembles to be very helpful with these two events in the long range.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 26, 2019 12:22:02 GMT -6
This might make trick r treating difficult If not flat dangerous due to falling limbs, etc. |
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