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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 26, 2019 12:31:00 GMT -6
If only surface temps were 5-10 degrees colder we'd be dealing with a major ice storm for the Halloween storm, which would be more realistic than any accumulating snow. it could always be worse.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 26, 2019 12:32:37 GMT -6
12z euro still showing a 30mb drop in pressure on Halloween.
Very impressive storm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 26, 2019 12:37:58 GMT -6
I see no reason to remove "mixed with wet flakes" for Thursday. If you take the GFS verbatim, there should be some solid snow showers in the tightly cyclonic curvature under saturated conditions at 850mb. What is really amazing to me is how completely aweful the GFS has been in the 6+ day timeframe with these last two systems. If you believed the GFS (which some folks I know follow exclusively) then you forecast a dry weekend... and dry Wed/thu for next week. This weekend is obviously wet and it seems likely that Wed/Thu will be wet, cold and windy. The GFS was lost, everything else sniffed it out. In particular, I have found the ensembles to be very helpful with these two events in the long range. It seems the “new and improved” FV3 GFS is anything but at this time |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 26, 2019 13:17:33 GMT -6
When I think of Fall, I think of days like today. All day rain, gray, dreary temps in the 40's or 50's. What a day, lol.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 26, 2019 13:39:31 GMT -6
When I think of Fall, I think of days like today. All day rain, gray, dreary temps in the 40's or 50's. What a day, lol. I was thinking the same thing. Textbook. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 26, 2019 14:15:13 GMT -6
When I think of Fall, I think of days like today. All day rain, gray, dreary temps in the 40's or 50's. What a day, lol. For me, today is textbook early nobember or late october as well. |
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Post by bear1 on Oct 26, 2019 15:16:02 GMT -6
When I think of Fall, I think of days like today. All day rain, gray, dreary temps in the 40's or 50's. What a day, lol. For me, today is textbook early nobember or late october as well. Mother Nature shows no favoritism to man made models of the future?!... She's gonna do, what she's gonna do  . |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 26, 2019 16:45:37 GMT -6
When I think of Fall, I think of days like today. All day rain, gray, dreary temps in the 40's or 50's. What a day, lol. Idk. I hate days like this. You just described a typical winter day in st louis only with a storm system cutting across the upper MS valley, followed in a day or two with sunny and freezing temperatures. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 26, 2019 17:14:51 GMT -6
Imagine if this were all snow I'm excited for winter... |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 26, 2019 17:19:37 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 26, 2019 17:49:43 GMT -6
1.55 so far in st.peters. very nice soaking
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Post by REB on Oct 26, 2019 17:57:32 GMT -6
1.54” and still raining.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 26, 2019 19:18:19 GMT -6
1.4” in Arnold
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Oct 26, 2019 20:03:51 GMT -6
.50”m New Haven. Storm total.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 26, 2019 20:51:33 GMT -6
Potentially serious fire threat tomorrow in California wine country. HRRR is forecasting wind gusts of 60-80mph with relative humidity below 30% in the vicinity of the Kincade fire ongoing in Sonoma County. The county has ordered one of the largest mandatory evacuations in it's history (mostly downwind of the Kincade fire all the way to the coast) and PG&E is expected to implement preventative blackouts for a very large portion of the county as well. And for those that didn't know GOES Shortwave-IR band can be useful for tracking fires. They show up as dark spots in the imagery.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 26, 2019 20:56:50 GMT -6
Is there a way to get forum notifications on the Tapatalk app? I have notifications on but that doesn’t seem to do anything
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 26, 2019 23:10:29 GMT -6
Would imagine fog will be a problem overnight
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 27, 2019 3:36:01 GMT -6
Would imagine fog will be a problem overnight Thick as pea soup here right now. (4:35am) |
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Post by birddog on Oct 27, 2019 6:43:43 GMT -6
1.25" rain here yesterday. Foggy here as well, visibility maybe 200 yards.
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 27, 2019 8:41:39 GMT -6
The Nam looks like its trending colder ahead of the Halloween storm. Interesting trend
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 27, 2019 9:05:21 GMT -6
Pablo just became a hurricane further east than any other hurricane on record in the Atlantic.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 27, 2019 9:15:24 GMT -6
If you do a loop over the last several hours of GOES SW IR you can see the Kincade Fire has expanded rapidly overnight. Weather stations at higher elevations in the vicinity have reported wind gusts over 90mph! Sonoma CO has expanded mandatory evacuations to include a portion of the city of Santa Rosa now.
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 27, 2019 9:55:23 GMT -6
How much snow are we gonna get this week?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 27, 2019 9:59:34 GMT -6
How much snow are we gonna get this week? You're gonna need a bigger plow, lol. |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Oct 27, 2019 10:04:01 GMT -6
1.2" in North St. Pete yesterday according to the Davis on the roof.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 27, 2019 10:21:56 GMT -6
I expect 6", in Des Moines. If we're lucky we'll see 6 flakes.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 27, 2019 11:00:26 GMT -6
1.2" in North St. Pete yesterday according to the Davis on the roof. That matches up well with Lambert. They reported 1.25“ for yesterday. |
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Post by ajd446 on Oct 27, 2019 11:04:55 GMT -6
Gem is south with the halloween storm. Models are having fits. Almost non existent on the gem.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 27, 2019 11:16:46 GMT -6
GEFS and Euro ensembles have trended flatter/further south with the Frakenstorm
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Post by snowday_lover on Oct 27, 2019 11:33:21 GMT -6
GEFS and Euro ensembles have trended flatter/further south with the Frakenstorm Is this good or bad? |
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