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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 13, 2019 12:10:39 GMT -6
Looks like KPLR is getting the jump on the Holiday season. They are showing the movie Home for the Holidays (1995) this afternoon.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 13, 2019 14:31:01 GMT -6
Looks like KPLR is getting the jump on the Holiday season. They are showing the movie Home for the Holidays (1995) this afternoon. Oh lord! Lol. At least wait until Nov 1st. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 13, 2019 15:53:16 GMT -6
Take this with a grain of salt, but looking way into the future both the EPS/GEFS have a strong signal for a very amplified pattern around day 8 with the deterministic runs showing southerly flow out of the Gulf and respectable moisture out in front of the big shortwave. May have to keep an eye on this in the coming days for strong storms in the middle of the country.  I see Reed Timmer is already hyping up this potential system on social media |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 13, 2019 16:40:09 GMT -6
Products are pretty limited with the UKMET, but from what I can see it looks like it is even sharper with trough than either the GFS and ECMWF. Cyclogenesis is further south and 500mb heights are close to closing off by D7. Either way there is a strong signal for troughing and cyclogenesis in the middle of the country.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 13, 2019 17:57:45 GMT -6
Products are pretty limited with the UKMET, but from what I can see it looks like it is even sharper with trough than either the GFS and ECMWF. Cyclogenesis is further south and 500mb heights are close to closing off by D7. Either way there is a strong signal for troughing and cyclogenesis in the middle of the country. Both the GFS and EC have been showing a deep trof and associated cyclone ejecting out into the Central Plains around then for several days now...it definitely looks like another potent storm system. You have to like the pattern that has developed so far this month as we head into the cool season...if this trend continues it's going to be an active winter. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 13, 2019 18:56:24 GMT -6
Products are pretty limited with the UKMET, but from what I can see it looks like it is even sharper with trough than either the GFS and ECMWF. Cyclogenesis is further south and 500mb heights are close to closing off by D7. Either way there is a strong signal for troughing and cyclogenesis in the middle of the country. Both the GFS and EC have been showing a deep trof and associated cyclone ejecting out into the Central Plains around then for several days now...it definitely looks like another potent storm system. You have to like the pattern that has developed so far this month as we head into the cool season...if this trend continues it's going to be an active winter. Man, I sure I hope it's another active winter. We could use a blockbuster storm or two. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 14, 2019 10:40:02 GMT -6
Wife is helping chaperone a group of preschool kids to a pumpkin patch. What a glorious day to do that.
Supposed to take another group tomorrow. But if the rain materializes that may get pushed back to Thursday.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 14, 2019 19:43:51 GMT -6
Hard to watch the cardinals this series. Really have the life sucked out of them.
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 15, 2019 5:45:07 GMT -6
I’m assuming not much moisture with this cold front this afternoon?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 15, 2019 7:23:45 GMT -6
I’m assuming not much moisture with this cold front this afternoon? Could be some scattered showers or storms develop later today. |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 15, 2019 8:58:39 GMT -6
Hard to watch the cardinals this series. Really have the life sucked out of them. It appears someone stole Jobu's rum. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 15, 2019 10:36:01 GMT -6
Must sacrifice a chicken.
Or.
F*ck you Jobu, I do it myself.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 15, 2019 11:07:42 GMT -6
As a Mets fan, this NLCS was gunna make me sick no matter what happened... was hoping it would at least be exciting to watch. f the *gnats.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 15, 2019 11:27:16 GMT -6
As a Mets fan, this NLCS was gunna make me sick no matter what happened... was hoping it would at least be exciting to watch. f the *gnats. Who knew Bryce Harper was holding that team back so much |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 15, 2019 11:45:47 GMT -6
I wasn't expecting to see this much sun today. I thought it was supposed to be grey and dreary with some drizzle. Not that I'm complaining
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 15, 2019 18:36:28 GMT -6
Well that was a rough 1st inning.....
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 15, 2019 18:50:50 GMT -6
Well that’s that. Cardinals are done. At least the Nationals won’t be celebrating at Busch. Overall still a fun season.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 15, 2019 18:58:55 GMT -6
All right well then.. let's go Blues.
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 15, 2019 22:11:40 GMT -6
The wind is kind of gusting outside.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 16, 2019 0:54:10 GMT -6
I knew this team wasn't all that good. But I never thought they'd get swept.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 16, 2019 7:42:12 GMT -6
I'd love to have the time to go back and count how many pitches Corbin actually threw in the strike zone.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 16, 2019 8:00:26 GMT -6
So the gfs has a progressive pattern continuing for the rest of the month with each trough depicting a colder temperature. The 00 gfs would lead me to think we will have no trouble hitting our first freeze at Lambert by Halloween...but of course, it always backs off on intensity of cold as we get closer. Not alot of precip for the next 2 weeks. Seems like mother nature is getting over her anger.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 16, 2019 8:50:20 GMT -6
So the gfs has a progressive pattern continuing for the rest of the month with each trough depicting a colder temperature. The 00 gfs would lead me to think we will have no trouble hitting our first freeze at Lambert by Halloween...but of course, it always backs off on intensity of cold as we get closer. Not alot of precip for the next 2 weeks. Seems like mother nature is getting over her anger. Monday's frontal passage looks to bring a good soaking...especially if it slows down and a secondary low develops with the impulse digging into the base of the trof like models have been hinting at. Might need to keep an eye on strong storm potential as well. Models show potential for a light freeze towards D8 with the deep NW flow. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Oct 16, 2019 10:03:33 GMT -6
Tomorrow is launch day for our weather balloon! We are launching from Wentzville at 9:00 and hoping to land near Du Quoin, IL around 12:30. If all goes well, I should have some cool pictures/video to share. A big thanks to padlur for the tips!
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Oct 16, 2019 11:57:22 GMT -6
Hope all goes great! The pics and video are always incredible to check out. Should be a sunny day tomorrow so good visibility but my kids were in awe one year that was thick with clouds but the balloon of course captured the scene above the clouds which many students had never witnessed. Assume you are collecting data as well to look at with the students. We have them guess ahead of time the max altitude, speed, high and low temps, distance traveled, and lowest pressure. We make it a contest. They are usually amazed at the numbers that come in from the radio.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 16, 2019 11:59:59 GMT -6
So the gfs has a progressive pattern continuing for the rest of the month with each trough depicting a colder temperature. The 00 gfs would lead me to think we will have no trouble hitting our first freeze at Lambert by Halloween...but of course, it always backs off on intensity of cold as we get closer. Not alot of precip for the next 2 weeks. Seems like mother nature is getting over her anger. Monday's frontal passage looks to bring a good soaking...especially if it slows down and a secondary low develops with the impulse digging into the base of the trof like models have been hinting at. Might need to keep an eye on strong storm potential as well. Models show potential for a light freeze towards D8 with the deep NW flow. Agree on your points. Overall, while we cld see a soaker, i dont anticipate the torrential or flash flooding type of rain. D8 freeze potential is there but i dont think we will have to wait too long for the next freeze. We average around halloween iirc for our first freeze and i think we will have no trouble dropping below freezing by then. However, what im seeing is not sustained cold but a quick hit of cold alternating with warm. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 16, 2019 12:05:00 GMT -6
Is the Greenland blocking showing up on the GFS late month a good sign heading into Nov?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 16, 2019 12:13:17 GMT -6
Is the Greenland blocking showing up on the GFS late month a good sign heading into Nov? Im reminded of 1993, which we had alot of rain that year, and we were seeing snow showers the week leading up to Halloween. Columbia might have had accumulating snow. But according to stats, the amount of snow that following winter was unremarkable. I used to think October gave a good indication of the winter, but lately that hasnt worked out too well. Im probably in the camp that a mild november is a good signal for cold winter months bc it allows the cold to build up north. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 16, 2019 13:11:35 GMT -6
Last year we had the very early start to winter of course which included the nice accumulating snow in mid November. We were all afraid of "premature winter elation." Looked like it was going to pan out that way because we were very rainy and mild through Christmas. Then of course we cashed in pretty good in January and February.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Oct 16, 2019 14:01:55 GMT -6
Hope all goes great! The pics and video are always incredible to check out. Should be a sunny day tomorrow so good visibility but my kids were in awe one year that was thick with clouds but the balloon of course captured the scene above the clouds which many students had never witnessed. Assume you are collecting data as well to look at with the students. We have them guess ahead of time the max altitude, speed, high and low temps, distance traveled, and lowest pressure. We make it a contest. They are usually amazed at the numbers that come in from the radio. Yes. We have a flight computer that will be gathering information. The flight predictors put us in some pretty open land. I am just praying we don't end up in a tree! |
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