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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 22, 2020 10:41:48 GMT -6
Looks like it might get quite cold again as we close out September and start October with a very strong negative NAO/AO in play and a decent western ridge to send down a massive early season blast of air more like November then October, could even see a frost or light freeze especially away from the city.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 22, 2020 10:50:33 GMT -6
Set off by a wicked Aleutian low... squeezes the EPAC ridge poleward, allowing a polar lobe to dive into the great lakes.
Gotta love how it all works together.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Sept 22, 2020 11:24:52 GMT -6
Very end of the GFS looking interesting with a strong cold front coming down from Canada. Although it’s pure fantasy land, historically it would be right on time. Last October was very snowy and cold here in Colorado.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 22, 2020 11:36:55 GMT -6
Things stay drier than a bone though through at least mid-October. After than it seems like the dry pattern will break down with things possibly turning wetter then normal at the end of October if not by November.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 22, 2020 12:02:56 GMT -6
Very end of the GFS looking interesting with a strong cold front coming down from Canada. Although it’s pure fantasy land, historically it would be right on time. Last October was very snowy and cold here in Colorado. west coast is looks like it's loading up at H5 by the end of that run... hopefully a sign of things to come this winter. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 22, 2020 17:07:02 GMT -6
Video from the Oregon DOT as they first get back into an area where one of the fires came through. Really sad.
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Post by REB on Sept 23, 2020 6:51:00 GMT -6
Curious why Chris is on the deck doing his broadcast. What did I miss?
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 23, 2020 8:53:22 GMT -6
Curious why Chris is on the deck doing his broadcast. What did I miss? It’s a nice morning why not. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 23, 2020 10:29:54 GMT -6
GFS is a bit nippy next Thurs morning. That would beat last year's first frost by about 10 days.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 23, 2020 10:37:34 GMT -6
GFS is a bit nippy next Thurs morning. That would beat last year's first frost by about 10 days. One of my favorite things is the return of the 540 line. I’m feeling very optimistic about this winter season. I think December is a good month this year from a storm perspective (not so much otherwise). |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 23, 2020 11:10:53 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 23, 2020 11:38:25 GMT -6
Another "blue norther" showing up on the longer range progs next week...very interesting, indeed.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 23, 2020 11:55:43 GMT -6
Here inlies the age-old question...is this a preview for winter or are we getting the cold too soon? I personally think it times out better this way as opposed to last year with the November cold snap.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 23, 2020 14:26:05 GMT -6
Here inlies the age-old question...is this a preview for winter or are we getting the cold too soon? I personally think it times out better this way as opposed to last year with the November cold snap. PV is forecasted to be very weak this year compared to the record-breaking strong PV we had last year. So I believe we will have a lot more swings this year adding in the La Nina and less than favorable EPO/WPO and PNA but the NAO/AO should go negative more this year so it should help. I'm expecting cold shots to be transient and progressive, but should still allow for some interesting times along with mild/warm breaks. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 23, 2020 15:08:06 GMT -6
Looks like Saturday and possibly Sunday should be our last time this year that we could reach 90 degrees or higher, likely won't even see 80s for awhile (though not for the year) after Monday.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 23, 2020 17:07:57 GMT -6
Watching Cal Fire that played on Discovery last night. Depressing.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 23, 2020 18:32:54 GMT -6
Here inlies the age-old question...is this a preview for winter or are we getting the cold too soon? I personally think it times out better this way as opposed to last year with the November cold snap. I've got a range in mind for snow, but I'd like to get a better idea of the fall season. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 23, 2020 19:30:06 GMT -6
Looks like Saturday and possibly Sunday should be our last time this year that we could reach 90 degrees or higher, likely won't even see 80s for awhile (though not for the year) after Monday. Mixing out to 925mb supports mid-80s for highs on Saturday. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 23, 2020 19:56:22 GMT -6
1933 had 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes. But the following winter does not have data to support a correlation between hurricanes/winter. I know that in the late 70s, there was a prediction from Al Brooks of severe winters having something to do with the number of hurricanes, but the data does not seem to support. I'm looking at enso cycles/solar cycles/and preceding rainfall and I see these analog years:
2016-2017
2010-2011
2007-2008
2005-2006
1978-1979
but I'm going to toss 2016 and 2005 out because they are not in the same place relative to where we are at in the solar cycle plus preceding El Nino for 2016 was very strong. Really prefer to look at winters that follow or at least near in proximity to a solar minima. As far as Enso, I'm looking at years that had a slight el nino index for the preceding 2 years because that's what we have this year...last year and the year before were greater than .5 on the enso cycle. One should also look at winters that followed 2 years of healthy rainfall totals - hard to find because our rainfall total is trending upwards. I know that there are ppl who do not believe that solar cycles have no bearing on winter. I'm not ready to discard solar cycle. I think we have entered a long term minima, so global cooling over the next couple decades will become apparent. As far as local weather, we tend to lag the global effects because local weather in Europe seems to be impacted first due to the greater land mass. Wildfires effect? I think maybe there is some effect short term, and that short term could enable longer term effects. We need to consider that. I agree with dark that we will see wild temp swings. Very cold, very warm. Shots at going well below 0. Our best tornado years were also during La Nina winters. That will surely be the case this year as well, but the cold will be how this winter is remembered. Everything I put on the table support a more severe than average winter, IMO. How much snow? I'll put that number out later.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 23, 2020 20:28:42 GMT -6
Some weather model news today. GEFS has been upgraded to the FV3 core. Now contains 31 members (I believe that's 1 control and 30 perturbed members) with a bit higher resolution.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 24, 2020 7:15:01 GMT -6
If the 540 is any indication, its going to be chilly. I dont plan on turning the heat on until my annual inspection of my furnace so extra blankets i guess...and i just may not get out of bed. Lol
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 24, 2020 8:46:31 GMT -6
Hi all! My dear husband and I are on the tail end of a camping trip that started right after Labor Day and we went through Iowa, MN, WI, across Lake Mich on the SS Badger and now in West Mich in my hometown! Leaving next week to head home to MO! The weather has been great for the majority of it and the autumn leaves are turning! Glad it will be cool when we get home!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 24, 2020 9:03:57 GMT -6
Chilly  |
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 24, 2020 10:41:09 GMT -6
Trends seem to be for a fall storm next week
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 24, 2020 10:59:53 GMT -6
Chilly EURO is highly amplified with 10-12*C+ 850 anomalies across the region. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 24, 2020 11:37:31 GMT -6
Sunday night into Monday afternoon now looking pretty soggy and chilly. get ready to bust out the hoodies and the jackets as well as the umbrellas for a change instead of the sunglasses.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 24, 2020 12:59:08 GMT -6
12z EURO a little more broken and disjointed with the upper-level pattern... another one where it cuts off too early and it all comes down in a jumbled mess.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Sept 24, 2020 13:27:56 GMT -6
12z EURO a little more broken and disjointed with the upper-level pattern... another one where it cuts off too early and it all comes down in a jumbled mess. Exactly how it should be! Lol par for the course as it were... |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 24, 2020 16:03:28 GMT -6
According to NWS Lake Charles maximum storm surge height found from Hurricane Laura was 17.2ft at Rutherford Beach near Creole, LA.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 24, 2020 16:26:02 GMT -6
12z EURO a little more broken and disjointed with the upper-level pattern... another one where it cuts off too early and it all comes down in a jumbled mess. This may be the actual winter preview... |
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