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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 7, 2021 10:01:05 GMT -6
Not that I was expecting a ton of snow, but I was thinking I'd see some flakes fly this morning. Looking at the radar is just torture! Not one single flake. Oh well... so the winter goes.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2021 10:04:43 GMT -6
GFS has the dry vort spinning out of TX on Monday as well. Track is great, but largely no precip. I think that would be method #623451347 of how to miss snow in STL.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2021 10:41:02 GMT -6
Models are printing out some surface based CAPE tomorrow with steep lapse rates from the surface to 850mb  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2021 10:57:51 GMT -6
The gradient/battleground that the GFS continues to consistently show in the long range is impressive. What's the EPO forecast looking like today?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2021 11:04:54 GMT -6
Sounds like every other "storm" this year, lol Yea that's my concern too as old habits are hard to break in terms of trends/patterns, but I wouldn't think our moisture would be tapped out this go-round. GEM and Euro have a solid precip shield, just need to pull it a bit north. That's why we need the SSW to do it's thing...gotta shake up this persistent pattern. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2021 11:08:58 GMT -6
The gradient/battleground that the GFS continues to consistently show in the long range is impressive. What's the EPO forecast looking like today? That's one thing that has pretty consistently been missing this season...strong baroclinity. A lot of these systems have moved across weak temp gradients which has promoted weak lift overall. We need to get cA airmass in the mix...and that should be the case later this month. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2021 11:17:26 GMT -6
The gradient/battleground that the GFS continues to consistently show in the long range is impressive. What's the EPO forecast looking like today? That's one thing that has pretty consistently been missing this season...strong baroclinity. A lot of these systems have moved across weak temp gradients which has promoted weak lift overall. We need to get cA airmass in the mix...and that should be the case later this month. Yup, totally agree. It's been a long time since we've had that kind of gradient. And we have a long way to go but it may be in sight. Let's just hope models don't retract. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 7, 2021 11:30:14 GMT -6
Looks like its going to be a quiet week or 2 of weather.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2021 11:38:58 GMT -6
The gradient/battleground that the GFS continues to consistently show in the long range is impressive. What's the EPO forecast looking like today? Still looks to hover around neutral beginning the 15th. The long range outlook has it going positive as we get into February |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2021 12:35:48 GMT -6
Guess Dallas through MS gets their shot before STL this winter... unreal.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2021 12:39:53 GMT -6
The gradient/battleground that the GFS continues to consistently show in the long range is impressive. What's the EPO forecast looking like today? Still looks to hover around neutral beginning the 15th. The long range outlook has it going positive as we get into February Not great news. Looked good yesterday. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2021 12:56:23 GMT -6
Guess Dallas through MS gets their shot before STL this winter... unreal. yep euro has a big one there. Incredible |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2021 13:07:13 GMT -6
Ellsinore, MO was reporting 3” of snow with moderate snow falling. This winter is just trolling us at this point
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2021 13:41:22 GMT -6
Looks like its going to be a quiet week or 2 of weather. wouldnt surprise me if some days, we saw cloudy conditions, giving that aura of winter, though. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 7, 2021 14:54:37 GMT -6
Fun watching band after band of snow come in from the se just to fizzle out two counties to the south lol.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 7, 2021 15:09:08 GMT -6
I don't do too much ranting on here, but if next week Shreveport LA and Jackson MS have more snow in 1 storm than I've had all season my mood will change.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 7, 2021 15:14:44 GMT -6
Not that I was expecting a ton of snow, but I was thinking I'd see some flakes fly this morning. Looking at the radar is just torture! Not one single flake. Oh well... so the winter goes. Yeah, I thought there would be more snow than what there has been in the far S cwa. That also applies for you demerson. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 7, 2021 15:16:59 GMT -6
I remember the good old days when we would be so pissed when Chicago would get every storm. Now the South is getting all the storms. WTH???
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2021 15:40:45 GMT -6
I remember the good old days when we would be so pissed when Chicago would get every storm. Now the South is getting all the storms. WTH??? I can report it doesn’t really snow in Chicago anymore either |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 7, 2021 15:40:46 GMT -6
I remember the good old days when we would be so pissed when Chicago would get every storm. Now the South is getting all the storms. WTH??? I agree. It seemed like the miss for us was almost always N in the past. That's back when we had wound up cyclones or Colorado type lows that tracked too far N for us and put Chicago in the goods. Chicago has been screwed as much as St. Louis by their standards (I personally feel they have too) for sure the past 5 or so years. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 7, 2021 15:41:31 GMT -6
It’s always gone north and south of us! It must be the South’s year so far! I don’t think we’ve even gotten a inch yet!
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Post by weatherj on Jan 7, 2021 15:44:51 GMT -6
It’s always gone north and south of us! It must be the South’s year so far! I don’t think we’ve even gotten a inch yet! The winter of 2009-10 was the most aggravating season for misses to the south with the bigger systems in recent memory IIRC. We did at least have a few clippers though that winter. That's been like pulling teeth to even get any of those thus far this season. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2021 15:51:15 GMT -6
the trouble is the same as what we saw a couple years back....too much drought in the plains. might be interesting tornado season though.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 7, 2021 15:54:58 GMT -6
It’s always gone north and south of us! It must be the South’s year so far! I don’t think we’ve even gotten a inch yet! The winter of 2009-10 was the most aggravating season for misses to the south with the bigger systems in recent memory IIRC. We did at least have a few clippers though that winter. That's been like pulling teeth to even get any of those thus far this season. I believe I also had seen somewhere, J.B. or Chris, Beaker, someone, saying 09-10 were analog years for this year. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2021 16:15:42 GMT -6
the trouble is the same as what we saw a couple years back....too much drought in the plains. might be interesting tornado season though. That's definitely not helping matters, but the flow off the Pacific is really the overwhelming negating factor so far this winter. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2021 17:16:35 GMT -6
the trouble is the same as what we saw a couple years back....too much drought in the plains. might be interesting tornado season though. That's definitely not helping matters, but the flow off the Pacific is really the overwhelming negating factor so far this winter. somehow i knew youd get on here and say that...and i agree. im just not sure even with the sort lived neg epo coming up, that we will get anything. just speculating though. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2021 17:23:03 GMT -6
Extended range gfs continues to look wintry. Tons of cold air around. Initially, probably looking at some clipper type stuff before having a better chance of a storm coming out of the southwest and meeting the cold air.
Looks like a 7 day wait for anything interesting, so probably have something worth talking about by the end of the weekend.
I think we are close to breaking open a nice 4-6 week period of snow and cold.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 7, 2021 18:49:52 GMT -6
Extended range gfs continues to look wintry. Tons of cold air around. Initially, probably looking at some clipper type stuff before having a better chance of a storm coming out of the southwest and meeting the cold air. Looks like a 7 day wait for anything interesting, so probably have something worth talking about by the end of the weekend. I think we are close to breaking open a nice 4-6 week period of snow and cold. I want to agree with you, but we’ve been dealing with these kind of events since September/October time frame. They just aren’t able to spin up any type of meaningful precipitation in a 12-24 hour timeframe. After 48-72 hours sure, you might have .5-1” of qpf, but it took its time getting there. We usually need good precip rates around here to keep snow going. Lots of winter left though. I mean, we’ve got all the way through April if the last few years tell us anything. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 7, 2021 21:58:54 GMT -6
Models might be jumping Monday's system northward. Still too far south to do much but it's creeping closer.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 7, 2021 22:18:47 GMT -6
I think we will see some snow showers or burst tomorrow. Could be some nice short lived snow squalls, with reduced visibility at times
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