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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 12, 2022 15:57:49 GMT -6
18Z GFS looking pretty sweet...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 15:58:05 GMT -6
700 low should starting lifting... would imagine it will track north of the dry slot  The strongest winds at H7 have transitioned from the backside to the bottom and front side of the trough. So at the very least an EENE movement should be underway. But we need a legit NE trajectory.  upload hostThe GFS OTOH.... Is quite impressive and organized. It's IMO asking a lot to expect this system to have bottomed out, pivot, and start moving NE faster than the GFS currently has.  upload host |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 12, 2022 15:58:43 GMT -6
We need to forget about this second part of the storm and root for it to come further East and South more organized and drop a moderate+ winter storm on the metro. There isn't going be a wrapped up monster for us. I agree, it's pretty unlikely that it will cut off quickly enough to lift NE into our wheelhouse. We need to hope the WAA doesn't get eaten up by the DAM...I'm afraid that may be the case on the IL side. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 15:59:04 GMT -6
Gfs should be a nice run and continue its northern solution
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 16:03:48 GMT -6
It has a nice hit of WAA snow , but did shift south some from it’s earlier runs . Has around 3-6” for the area
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 16:05:22 GMT -6
Yes I think the focus should be on the WAA Snow, but that is a solid run area wide
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 16:11:45 GMT -6
We need to forget about this second part of the storm and root for it to come further East and South more organized and drop a moderate+ winter storm on the metro. There isn't going be a wrapped up monster for us. I agree, it's pretty unlikely that it will cut off quickly enough to lift NE into our wheelhouse. We need to hope the WAA doesn't get eaten up by the DAM...I'm afraid that may be the case on the IL side. Yeah that could be an issue We are not going to be getting anything near the epic QPF to our NW. But we could definitely end up in a nice band of winter storm warning snow if the system doesn't track to far West. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 12, 2022 16:17:33 GMT -6
I have went from a foot this morning to being in the snow minimum today on the GFS …… probably can lock this run in lol
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 12, 2022 16:18:21 GMT -6
Does seem like the snowless pivot is slowly eroding away each run
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 16:26:42 GMT -6
Yes Coz, that’s a good thing, most models and ensembles are are close on the 2-5” range depending on location.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 16:29:56 GMT -6
18z GEFS mean looks to be alittle stronger and further east with the WAA snow  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 16:33:35 GMT -6
We need to forget about this second part of the storm and root for it to come further East and South more organized and drop a moderate+ winter storm on the metro. There isn't going be a wrapped up monster for us. I agree, it's pretty unlikely that it will cut off quickly enough to lift NE into our wheelhouse. We need to hope the WAA doesn't get eaten up by the DAM...I'm afraid that may be the case on the IL side. Here is the 18Z GFS for hour 66 for Belleville Illinois. That would be heavy snow. Very large flakes. Maybe baby hamsters.  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 16:35:56 GMT -6
GEFS looks awesome
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 12, 2022 16:43:16 GMT -6
Does seem like the snowless pivot is slowly eroding away each run This thing is a freight train. Some of these model runs are digging the H5 low through Western Kansas that's probably not going to happen. The more Easterly the track and trough orientation the longer the system stays together while being driven by the jet on the backside of the trough. PWATS on the models have continued to slowly go up. They are running like 0.6-0.75" during the WAA. That's pretty damn good. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 16:50:03 GMT -6
I’m a big fan of Heavy Snow and “Hamsters” size flakes
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 12, 2022 16:51:18 GMT -6
I agree, it's pretty unlikely that it will cut off quickly enough to lift NE into our wheelhouse. We need to hope the WAA doesn't get eaten up by the DAM...I'm afraid that may be the case on the IL side. Here is the 18Z GFS for hour 66 for Belleville Illinois. That would be heavy snow. Very large flakes. Maybe baby hamsters. The lack of wind in the column will help the flakes from getting sheared apart too |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 17:05:06 GMT -6
It looks like the Arctic hammer comes from days 6-15 on the EPS
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 17:12:18 GMT -6
It looks like the Arctic hammer comes from days 6-15 on the EPS Ya it’s gonna get cold toward the end of the month |
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paul52
Weather Weenie
Posts: 14
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Post by paul52 on Jan 12, 2022 17:24:54 GMT -6
Glad to be back in Chris's Corner after many years of lurking. Looks like I found a good time to jump in. Very much appreciate the wisdom and insights on this board, not to mention the extreme fandom for all things weather.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 12, 2022 17:30:19 GMT -6
We have a 3 month old St. Bernard pup (certainly doesn’t look like a pup anymore) that has yet to witness snow on the ground let alone a flake fall from the sky. I know he’ll love it so I’m really hoping this pans out!
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 12, 2022 18:02:53 GMT -6
Sounds like a good time to start a new thread. Fresh start. What do ya say Chris? 😊
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2022 18:21:08 GMT -6
00z’s are important tonight. I’ll admit I didn’t care for the slight southward adjustment of the 18z gfs.
Regardless, we could be looking at an area wide, or nearly so, 3-5” system if things go right.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 18:21:48 GMT -6
18z euro looks pretty good on the MO side with 2-5”
IL side is only about 1-2”
I’m sure dry air plays a role in that
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2022 18:38:46 GMT -6
18z euro looks pretty good on the MO side with 2-5” IL side is only about 1-2” I’m sure dry air plays a role in that Any change with the second part? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 18:49:02 GMT -6
18z euro looks pretty good on the MO side with 2-5” IL side is only about 1-2” I’m sure dry air plays a role in that Any change with the second part? Not really. Still to far south of the area |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 12, 2022 19:09:24 GMT -6
Getting really sick of missing snow on this side of the river because of dry air …… happens way too often over here
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 19:15:40 GMT -6
18z EPS mean snowfall does look every so slightly better acorss the area
Good to see it trending upward instead of down
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2022 19:20:23 GMT -6
The 21z sref is insane lol.
Never seen an individual member show that much snow for STL
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 19:20:34 GMT -6
what does the 0z NBM show snow wise?
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Jan 12, 2022 19:36:23 GMT -6
The 21z sref is insane lol. Never seen an individual member show that much snow for STL Care to share? |
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