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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 19:38:52 GMT -6
What is the mean for Stl on the SREF
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2022 19:39:15 GMT -6
The 21z sref is insane lol. Never seen an individual member show that much snow for STL Care to share? [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/indeximg.php Couldn’t get the image to work from my phone for some reason. As you can see, there is a rogue member showing 3 feet of snow lol. Several other big members as well, and then a more reasonable cluster showing several inches. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 19:42:04 GMT -6
what does the 0z NBM show snow wise? Looks like 3” in the metro |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 12, 2022 19:55:35 GMT -6
I don’t think it means anything, but the 00z HRR is pretty far northeast compared to the other models.
It’s at the edge of its forecast window so likely just struggling at that extended range.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Jan 12, 2022 20:03:37 GMT -6
[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/indeximg.php Couldn’t get the image to work from my phone for some reason. As you can see, there is a rogue member showing 3 feet of snow lol. Several other big members as well, and then a more reasonable cluster showing several inches. Even taking out the ridiculous 38 inch one the mean is about 5 inches for STL. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 20:30:57 GMT -6
NAM coming in pretty hot
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 20:32:19 GMT -6
NAM is Beautiful
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 20:34:54 GMT -6
It’s a little slower but should have the metro in some wrap around snow
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 20:35:52 GMT -6
If only the NAM would verify, which of course it won't
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Jan 12, 2022 20:42:27 GMT -6
If only the NAM would verify, which of course it won't NAM has been good lately |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 12, 2022 20:43:33 GMT -6
nams 4 to 8 west of river and 2 to 5 east, with somwthing special in the bootheel.
Wonder if a winter storm watch will be issued tomorrow
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 12, 2022 20:43:57 GMT -6
Chris did say that the Nam has been the best model the last two storms …… so ……. Maybe?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 20:44:31 GMT -6
If only the NAM would verify, which of course it won't NAM has been good lately It's never good 3 days out. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 20:45:46 GMT -6
You have to correct for the biases of the NAM..that includes cutting QPF by 40% I think it is..maybe half..not sure, among other things.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 12, 2022 20:46:50 GMT -6
NAM decides to have the northern stream to take control
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 20:50:29 GMT -6
No WSW not for one model run . Now if it’s tomorrow at this time and all the models show that then yes possible
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 20:56:16 GMT -6
Most of us old timers have been down this same road many many times, the NAM will juice way up and be the wettest model for a couple runs only to come down to reality in the last 24-36 hours
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 21:01:08 GMT -6
NAM has been good lately but it’s prone to pumping out some unrealistic QPF numbers at times so use with caution
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 12, 2022 21:01:55 GMT -6
It’s better than drier and coming in further west
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 12, 2022 21:06:43 GMT -6
It’s better than drier and coming in further west The track is good... cut the QPF by 30% and remember the initial snow will be sloppy.... maybe 8:1 before we cool and fluff out to more like 12:1 |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 21:07:28 GMT -6
It’s definitely a great trend, the way this storm jumped southwest the last few days we could be looking at a non event if the models had not stopped their trends . On Monday it looked like a sure thing for northern Illinois and Great Lakes area
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Post by amstilost on Jan 12, 2022 21:17:35 GMT -6
Yikes, NAM has me at .97"QPF at hr 84....I will take this and not gripe.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 12, 2022 21:17:38 GMT -6
Regional canadian looks good
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Post by amstilost on Jan 12, 2022 21:24:02 GMT -6
Covid update....I am at 95% recovered. Occassional cough still and no smell or taste but 'feel' fantastic. THe wife is still battling with coughing and fatigue but amazing improvement today. Thanks for the prayers.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2022 21:31:58 GMT -6
It’s better than drier and coming in further west The track is good... cut the QPF by 30% and remember the initial snow will be sloppy.... maybe 8:1 before we cool and fluff out to more like 12:1 About 2 to 4 in w/ spots of 5 in factoring that all in on the NAM which goes well with your original 2 to 4 in! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 21:33:59 GMT -6
Our good friend the ICON looks solid
Actually favors the eastern counties over the western heh
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 12, 2022 21:45:51 GMT -6
I expect the gfs to trend south with round 2. Hopes of that may be fading here.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 12, 2022 21:56:30 GMT -6
Whew the 00z GFS is robust initially with the WAA snow, but it moves out too quick! I wish the WAA would slow down some, but we all know that's hard to come by, but the WAA snow is in and out. Axis of heaviest snow looks to be further west in Central, NW MO compared to the 00z NAM which is further east.
Not the best run, but maybe more realistic. Deformation snows look to be too far south for us.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 12, 2022 22:01:25 GMT -6
Yes gfs has trended away from the northern solution some. More in line with other models
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 12, 2022 22:11:13 GMT -6
Trends so far look pretty encouraging with the WAA snow coming in beefier. That quick pivot of the energy bringing deformation snow this far north was always a low probability call.
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