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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 8, 2022 19:52:08 GMT -6
BRTN you nailed it once again….. tornado warning for Fayette county Definitely some pretty strong rotation with that storm near Vandalia. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 8, 2022 19:56:15 GMT -6
Once again, I got missed to the north, south and east... Yep here too! Grr |
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 9, 2022 6:28:37 GMT -6
Raining in Festus but nothing on radar! Loving it!
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 9, 2022 7:07:23 GMT -6
Still raining! Yay!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jul 9, 2022 8:02:28 GMT -6
It's freaking pouring coming down route 3.
Like holy white out conditions
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2022 8:37:34 GMT -6
Really nice soaker this morning...was not expecting that. Haven't checked the gauge but I'd bet it's at least a half inch.
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Post by REB on Jul 9, 2022 8:37:55 GMT -6
Spent a few days in New Orleans . It was cooler there than here. Didn't get wet either. Now hoping for cooler and rain here.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jul 9, 2022 9:02:38 GMT -6
Spent a few days in New Orleans . It was cooler there than here. Didn't get wet either. Now hoping for cooler and rain here. Can't believe that little thunder storm put down an inch of rain that fast. Radar estimates show almost 2" in OFallon, IL. My rain Guage became loose and turned sideways so not an accurate reading. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 9, 2022 9:40:44 GMT -6
10 minute deluge dropped a quick 1/4in just a few minutes ago
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Post by REB on Jul 9, 2022 9:44:23 GMT -6
1.09” came rather quickly.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2022 9:47:39 GMT -6
Right at a half inch in the gauge...radar estimated storm total is near 2"...not even close
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 9, 2022 10:20:09 GMT -6
Half inch, quarter inch, 2 Inches, doesn't matter. Just glad we picked up something from what's been a miss parade all week. Looks like the only real meaningful rain the next 2 weeks, possibly more. Just glad we were able to pick up something so the grass doesn't all die.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2022 10:25:44 GMT -6
It does matter.
Matter it does.
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 9, 2022 10:29:43 GMT -6
We’ve had a nice morning rain off and on with a rumble of thunder! So glad!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 9, 2022 10:35:35 GMT -6
It does matter. Matter it does.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 9, 2022 10:49:31 GMT -6
Operational GFS seems awfully aggressive building that ridge back in towards next weekend and beyond. Ensembles are considerably further west, pretty well anchoring the ridge center close to the divide. It does look like a warm up is in store towards Fri/Sat as the return flow gets established again, but the prolonged heat wave that the operational shows is questionable, IMO. It does look dry overall, with anomalous ridging across S/Central CAN blocking most of the energy well to the north...but there's signs of some ridge runner potential towards early next week as that breaks down a bit.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 9, 2022 11:08:22 GMT -6
yeah, gotta give that GFS credit. It's been persistent about that 600DM ridge camping up overhead after next week. Looks like Tuesday AM might be our next best chance of isolated to scattered rain/storms for a long while. GEM and even the EURO is sliding into the GFS camp in the end of their runs, but not to the extreme of the GFS operational. Ensembles keep the worst of the heat northwest of us, but still desert dry. I'd say we have a 10% of seeing 110*F plus in the next 2 weeks. But 90% chance we don't, however upper 90s to near 105 is more likely. Dewpoints in the 70s and 80s most of that time with 'corn sweat' will make it feel like 130 in spots.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 9, 2022 11:13:17 GMT -6
GFS just wants to make sure I get my fill of 600+DM 500MB ridges. I think I will, as hard is that is to believe...
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 9, 2022 12:03:44 GMT -6
110 110… 115-115. 120-125… we got 130. 130 do we hear 140
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 9, 2022 12:11:02 GMT -6
I mean...come on. If it would get up to 105+ it would have to be a dry heat around here. Heat index of 130. Lmao.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 9, 2022 12:23:17 GMT -6
Operational GFS seems awfully aggressive building that ridge back in towards next weekend and beyond. Ensembles are considerably further west, pretty well anchoring the ridge center close to the divide. It does look like a warm up is in store towards Fri/Sat as the return flow gets established again, but the prolonged heat wave that the operational shows is questionable, IMO. It does look dry overall, with anomalous ridging across S/Central CAN blocking most of the energy well to the north...but there's signs of some ridge runner potential towards early next week as that breaks down a bit. Yeah, the GFS is obnoxious in the extended range. But even the GEFS, GEPS, and to a lesser extent EPS ensembles show at least some shift toward the east after 240 hours with that ridge. Our reprieve next week from the heat is certainly welcome but I'm not sure it's going to last. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 9, 2022 13:12:03 GMT -6
Operational GFS seems awfully aggressive building that ridge back in towards next weekend and beyond. Ensembles are considerably further west, pretty well anchoring the ridge center close to the divide. It does look like a warm up is in store towards Fri/Sat as the return flow gets established again, but the prolonged heat wave that the operational shows is questionable, IMO. It does look dry overall, with anomalous ridging across S/Central CAN blocking most of the energy well to the north...but there's signs of some ridge runner potential towards early next week as that breaks down a bit. Yeah, the GFS is obnoxious in the extended range. But even the GEFS, GEPS, and to a lesser extent EPS ensembles show at least some shift toward the east after 240 hours with that ridge. Our reprieve next week from the heat is certainly welcome but I'm not sure it's going to last. It's July. I wouldn't expect it to last. It's rare the number of times in July we've had temps in the 70s and 80s. Far more typical for temps in the 90s with a DP of 70-75. |
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Post by amstilost on Jul 9, 2022 15:15:47 GMT -6
Took a jaunt to St. Francois State Park to hang out with family. Been under persistent light rain for an hour. 😭😭 but we need it
But it's not raining at the house. 😭😭
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 10, 2022 8:58:28 GMT -6
Should have another 100+*F reading under the old belt tomorrow. Decent 25C 850MB temps, and west, southwesterly flow with nearly full sun should at least get the metro area to 100-102 tomorrow with 95 to 99 elsewhere. Dewpoints look oppressive in the mid 70s as well, so we could see a short fuse Heat Warning (1 Day) or more likely a 'high-end' advisory.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 10, 2022 10:01:03 GMT -6
We'd have to mix out to 850mb to get anywhere near 100 and soundings don't support that at all. Looking at the NAM we barely mix above 925mb...which gets us around 90-95 max. It's going to be a hot day, but not 100+.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 10, 2022 13:03:30 GMT -6
Not a cloud in the sky! Adult beverage time! Happy Sunday Cornerites!  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 10, 2022 15:36:11 GMT -6
18z NAM(s) don’t look half bad tomorrow across the northern half of the area for some supercells. Plenty of instability with modest shear.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 10, 2022 15:36:30 GMT -6
Why does this time of year always seem to go by faster after Independence Day?
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Post by REB on Jul 10, 2022 16:51:45 GMT -6
As a teacher , we usually marked Jully 4 as the end of summer. That’s when classroom set up, lesson planning and school begins.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 10, 2022 17:08:31 GMT -6
I put my Christmas tree up today
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