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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 10, 2022 20:18:03 GMT -6
unfortunately, our chances of snow are very slim the next couple weeks.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 10, 2022 21:05:30 GMT -6
You never know with the NW flow
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 10, 2022 21:10:57 GMT -6
I put my Christmas tree up today Funny, I just took mine down. It was pretty dried out and it was time for it to go |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jul 11, 2022 6:41:09 GMT -6
Is it just me, or do the days seem to get shorter towards the end of every September?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 11, 2022 9:02:38 GMT -6
The most humid air will actually be located just behind the “cold” front coming down this evening. Gotta love summer time.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2022 11:23:25 GMT -6
CAMs look pretty lukewarm with convection along the front this evening...but anything that can get going poses a severe risk with 4000j/kg+ CAPE and about 30kts bulk shear.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 11, 2022 12:38:22 GMT -6
CAMs look pretty lukewarm with convection along the front this evening...but anything that can get going poses a severe risk with 4000j/kg+ CAPE and about 30kts bulk shear. Wonder if we can get some Gulf moisture next week? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 11, 2022 13:09:12 GMT -6
CAMs look pretty lukewarm with convection along the front this evening...but anything that can get going poses a severe risk with 4000j/kg+ CAPE and about 30kts bulk shear. Wonder if we can get some Gulf moisture next week? Globals show the Bermuda ridge building a bit next week but with the mean ridge hanging out across the Rockies and cut off energy over the Gulf coast that will probably block a lot of the moisture transport. This weekend is probably our best shot at storms with a couple decent waves breaking through the ridge and digging across the region. GFS is bullish with the second wave on Saturday with a wound up compact low crossing IL. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 11, 2022 16:12:15 GMT -6
99 at Lambert at 5pm. Must have mixed pretty good today lol. Wonder if we touch 100
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 11, 2022 16:21:57 GMT -6
Blow torch next week? Yuck!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 12, 2022 7:48:59 GMT -6
Looks like those showers and a few storms finally fired up south of St. Louis of course.
Speaking of the next couple weeks, the forecast at least as far as the GFS is concerned as the other models haven't been on the Hades train like the upgraded GFS has been, seems to be really falling back on the excessive prolonged heatwave of the century with the ridge firmly now well west of St. Louis rather than overhead. That means northwest flow will dominate moving forward with seasonable to slightly below average temps and humidity but with an increasingly unsettled pattern with showers and storms, as well as a few MCS's starting early Saturday morning, well into the extended. It's not going to rain all the time of course, but things are looking a bit wetter moving forward through the end of July. Is there still potential for a day or 2 here and there for 'excessive heat'? Yes, it's July... Though the ideas of anything long lasting then say 3 days in a row or more looks increasingly slim.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 12, 2022 8:14:12 GMT -6
Which member on here is from Fletcher, MO?
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Post by bear1 on Jul 12, 2022 8:23:27 GMT -6
I believe it's Demerson, fletcher Mo.?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 12, 2022 15:31:52 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 12, 2022 17:10:31 GMT -6
Which member on here is from Fletcher, MO? That’s me |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 12, 2022 22:27:42 GMT -6
With the big heat that's going to build across the Plains next week... have to watch some big wind events pretty close to here.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 13, 2022 0:04:42 GMT -6
Amazing stuff....click on the link under Stephen's Quintet (link takes you to nasa.gov) then click on the photograph, then once it loads enlarge the photograph. All those galaxies is quite mind blowing. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 13, 2022 8:04:20 GMT -6
With the big heat that's going to build across the Plains next week... have to watch some big wind events pretty close to here. Was thinking the same thing. Pretty textbook ridge runner setup. Sunday/Monday looks like a timeframe to watch close. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 13, 2022 8:45:31 GMT -6
Looking at last night's runs, the whole weekend looks pretty active. Models have shifted the track of the shortwaves and MCSs further SW right through our region. Could be some impressive rainfall totals in spots by Monday.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 13, 2022 9:28:17 GMT -6
Looking at last night's runs, the whole weekend looks pretty active. Models have shifted the track of the shortwaves and MCSs further SW right through our region. Could be some impressive rainfall totals in spots by Monday. Bring it on!! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 13, 2022 10:39:22 GMT -6
Ridge anchored well off to our west this weekend with the area solidly in the northerly flow. Agree, looks like a solid MCS pattern.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 13, 2022 20:54:17 GMT -6
NAM set up Saturday night... some big DCape- little to no cap  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 14, 2022 3:42:00 GMT -6
Those showers keep sliding by through central and eastern Illinois. It's like they're taunting us.
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47 
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Post by Raja72 on Jul 14, 2022 5:40:36 GMT -6
What are the chances of rain on Sunday? We are supposed to be on a boat at Kinkaid Lake with several kids and grandkids and I am concerned about storms. Trying to determine if we should reschedule. I don’t usually ask “for my back yard” but any info would be most helpful in making a decision. Many thanks in advance!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 14, 2022 8:44:18 GMT -6
What are the chances of rain on Sunday? We are supposed to be on a boat at Kinkaid Lake with several kids and grandkids and I am concerned about storms. Trying to determine if we should reschedule. I don’t usually ask “for my back yard” but any info would be most helpful in making a decision. Many thanks in advance! Sunday looks like a potential washout...models are showing a favorable setup for training/backbuilding storms across the region with heavy rainfall possible. |
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47
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Post by Raja72 on Jul 14, 2022 9:40:38 GMT -6
What are the chances of rain on Sunday? We are supposed to be on a boat at Kinkaid Lake with several kids and grandkids and I am concerned about storms. Trying to determine if we should reschedule. I don’t usually ask “for my back yard” but any info would be most helpful in making a decision. Many thanks in advance! Sunday looks like a potential washout...models are showing a favorable setup for training/backbuilding storms across the region with heavy rainfall possible. Thanks, BRTN! All signs are pointing to that, but I just needed confirmation from the professionals. Looks like a reschedule is in the cards. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 14, 2022 12:38:32 GMT -6
WPC 120hr QPF forecast  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 14, 2022 14:05:53 GMT -6
"That's a winner"
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 14, 2022 14:56:41 GMT -6
That's great as most of the mass guidance shows a complete swing and a miss for most of the viewing area, poor timing Sunday AM and it's north or south of us, but misses much of the area. I'm not counting any chickens on this one. It's gonna be a nowcast thing at any rate. Just keep the silent 20% pops from now until Sunday evening, then it's back to the beating sun until the end of the month then there seems to be some signals of a stalled front around the very end of July into August that could stage convection around the area. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 14, 2022 15:22:09 GMT -6
It really doesn't. The operational EC is aggressive pushing the boundary SW and sets up the storm train just SW of the Metro but every other model I've looked at bullseyes the region including the EC EPS.
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