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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 14, 2022 18:40:54 GMT -6
It really doesn't. The operational EC is aggressive pushing the boundary SW and sets up the storm train just SW of the Metro but every other model I've looked at bullseyes the region including the EC EPS. Let's hope the EC is wrong. Or that the other models don't bow to it. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 14, 2022 20:11:42 GMT -6
18Z EURO is southwest like the others. Also Friday isn't to be ignored especially east of the Mississippi River, some of the convective models are hinting at showers or at least decent cloud cover and virga which could mess with temperature forecasts across the area. Not much rain, but could see some hit and miss stuff, most likely it's dry but can't place 100% odds on that.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 15, 2022 9:01:43 GMT -6
Well, NE MO and W Central Illinois have received their fair share of rain!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2022 9:31:28 GMT -6
Well, NE MO and W Central Illinois have received their fair share of rain! Amazing how many of these complexes have died dropping SE into the region. This one might bring some sprinkles or light showers but that's about it...mid-level temps are getting toasty today. At least the cloud debris is knocking down temps at the surface. Hoping we can get some mid/upper level cloud cover tomorrow to knock down the heat potential. I'm going camping this weekend near Rolla and I'd rather it not be close to 100. Looks like there could be some isolated to scattered storm development across the Ozarks during the afternoon. Sunday still looks good for widespread storms and beneficial rainfall. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 15, 2022 9:37:56 GMT -6
Well, NE MO and W Central Illinois have received their fair share of rain! Amazing how many of these complexes have died dropping SE into the region. This one might bring some sprinkles or light showers but that's about it...mid-level temps are getting toasty today. At least the cloud debris is knocking down temps at the surface. Hoping we can get some mid/upper level cloud cover tomorrow to knock down the heat potential. I'm going camping this weekend near Rolla and I'd rather it not be close to 100. Looks like there could be some isolated to scattered storm development across the Ozarks during the afternoon. Sunday still looks good for widespread storms and beneficial rainfall. Keeping that silent 20% for Sunday going. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 15, 2022 9:45:02 GMT -6
Amazing how many of these complexes have died dropping SE into the region. This one might bring some sprinkles or light showers but that's about it...mid-level temps are getting toasty today. At least the cloud debris is knocking down temps at the surface. Hoping we can get some mid/upper level cloud cover tomorrow to knock down the heat potential. I'm going camping this weekend near Rolla and I'd rather it not be close to 100. Looks like there could be some isolated to scattered storm development across the Ozarks during the afternoon. Sunday still looks good for widespread storms and beneficial rainfall. Keeping that silent 20% for Sunday going. 20 percent chance of no rain. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2022 9:53:47 GMT -6
"So you're saying there's a chance"
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 15, 2022 10:52:15 GMT -6
Leaving for the Lake of the Ozarks this afternoon until Monday. Hopefully it rains here and not there lol.
First “vacation” in over two years.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 15, 2022 12:39:20 GMT -6
Only got a few sprinkles. But at least the clouds are holding the heat to a tolerable level.
At least so far.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2022 12:45:20 GMT -6
Been a few light showers here. Just enough to wet the pavement and knock the dust down a little. But a nice reprieve from the heat for sure.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 15, 2022 12:56:47 GMT -6
Next Tuesday looks inferno-ish with a solid blowtorch flow but it gets knocked down quickly with the FROPA Wednesday. But next weekend into the following week is looking like a possible heat wave as the ridge moves back east and builds. That could be the worst stretch of the summer if model trends hold...
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 15, 2022 13:25:43 GMT -6
BRTN, gee thanks! Can’t wait til Sept heading north to camp!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 15, 2022 13:30:43 GMT -6
Meanwhile in Europe their looking at big time heat as well, so the roasting is mutual across the pond. London is facing 100-105*F or 40-45*C heat for a couple days early next week from a mammoth ridge that will collapse and slide east into eastern Europe before heading into Romania and the Balkans region with 45*C heat, places that usually never see heat like that. In fact according to one post it was comparable to a 'forecast' from a climate model from 2050... 2050! Also the GFS is been up to it's antics with similar heat for us as BRTN already mentioned for us and most of the space between the Rockies and Appalachians. If this Summer doesn't rank as the hottest or at least the top 3, I'm going to be surprised unless it's SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) that stop it, but for land it looks like a record breaker!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 15, 2022 13:32:47 GMT -6
Also TWC (The Weather Channel) shows us with no fall in their Autumn outlook, keeping us at or near record temperatures above average for each month through October. Seesh!
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Post by pbc12871 on Jul 15, 2022 14:07:54 GMT -6
Damn I hate it when it gets hot in Romania.
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Post by weatherman222 on Jul 15, 2022 14:07:55 GMT -6
Found some rain... in Destin, FL. Quite the storm last night that triggered a special marine warning for possible waterspouts.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 15, 2022 14:21:48 GMT -6
Damn I hate it when it gets hot in Romania. 1 post said it was like a "forecast" from a climate model in 2050... glad it wasn't 2. The CFS has 850 temps below 10*C for a bit next month... so we have that going for us. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 15, 2022 14:27:01 GMT -6
Also TWC (The Weather Channel) shows us with no fall in their Autumn outlook, keeping us at or near record temperatures above average for each month through October. Seesh! No it doesn't |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 15, 2022 14:38:59 GMT -6
As for Sunday... My interest is now growing for that day as we're now into that 1-2 day away time frame, the shortwave/disturbance coming through is looking better organized and fairly stout and has a good track through the area targeting I-70/I-64 for a few to several rounds (at least 2 to 3 rounds) of showers and storms with some marginal/conditional severe potential (mostly wind and heavy rain). No derechos, but someone will cash in nicely from this system. It might also extend into Monday AM as well depending on how deep this system can get and it's overall speed as it swings through. Most models show between .5 to 1.5" from this system but with training potential near I-70 into the metro there could be pockets of 2 to 3" with locally higher amounts of 4-5" where there is overlapping storms. The 80% chance is now more than warranted!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 15, 2022 14:39:31 GMT -6
Also TWC (The Weather Channel) shows us with no fall in their Autumn outlook, keeping us at or near record temperatures above average for each month through October. Seesh! No it doesn't What does your TWC show? Cold? Please do elaborate... |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 15, 2022 14:48:53 GMT -6
It has us hot in August and above normal Sept/Oct. But to say at or near record temps for each month thru October is just plain BS. You just forecast the extreme... which 99% of the time is obviously wrong and gets tiresome.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 15, 2022 14:58:16 GMT -6
I see warmer than normal. But that is almost the norm these days. I for one am just hoping for a good rain this weekend versus hot and dry.
I also am one who personally does not put too much stock into the twc.
But thats just me. Id rather focus on NWS and the locals
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 15, 2022 15:04:31 GMT -6
Meanwhile in Europe their looking at big time heat as well, so the roasting is mutual across the pond. London is facing 100-105*F or 40-45*C heat for a couple days early next week from a mammoth ridge that will collapse and slide east into eastern Europe before heading into Romania and the Balkans region with 45*C heat, places that usually never see heat like that. In fact according to one post it was comparable to a 'forecast' from a climate model from 2050... 2050! Also the GFS is been up to it's antics with similar heat for us as BRTN already mentioned for us and most of the space between the Rockies and Appalachians. If this Summer doesn't rank as the hottest or at least the top 3, I'm going to be surprised unless it's SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) that stop it, but for land it looks like a record breaker! That 2050 forecast came from the UKMET blog. It was not a real forecast, but a simulated forecast representative of what heat waves in the UK might look like in 2050 based on the UKCP18 model with the RCP8.5 scenario. It was mercilessly mocked so the irony that the UKMET is now forced to publish a real forecast of a heatwave of similar magnitude for 2022 and only 2 weeks following their blog post is palpable. FWIW...I have no idea if the UK will hit 40C next week or not. I have my doubts. The all time high is 38.7C set in 2019. Beating that by 1.3C only 3 years later would be statistically unlikely, but we'll see. blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/06/23/how-we-make-our-2050-forecasts-and-why-we-do-them/ |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 15, 2022 15:11:46 GMT -6
It has us hot in August and above normal Sept/Oct. But to say at or near record temps for each month thru October is just plain BS. You just forecast the extreme... which 99% of the time is obviously wrong and gets tiresome. TBH isn't that what most of the media does anyway? Forecast the extreme or at least something in-between the reality and the extreme only to backtrack to what's actually happening when it becomes apparent that the extreme solution won't pan out. Really only the local news/mets don't play that game because they have to keep a job. I don't, but hey there's that 1% I'm right according to your post but then you'd probably get better results by throwing darts at a dartboard and landing on the right forecast icon. I admit, I'm no real meteorologist nor could ever be one (couldn't survive the math and physics), and sometimes it's fun to pretend and play the 'what if' game. We know who really put their work into their forecasts and actually want to get something at least decently accurate to the public. Ideally I'd just stay quiet and not post at all here, but sometimes you get that itch to do it anyway especially when something is actually showing an extreme solution even if it's highly doubtful to happen. If your that against hearing my posts just block/mute me and if not or can't then ignore it like most do or make a cheesy comment or whatever like the others do and move on. Plus like most on here, it's been snooze fest in the weather for the most part, so it's fun to stir up conversation every now and again. Once we've actually got something good to track or something is actually happening then the more serious face goes on. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 15, 2022 15:17:43 GMT -6
You play the heat/humidity card way too often. This past winter if I recall you were saying a 600dm ridge was going to develop across the U.S. in mid winter. It's over and over......... You know just about everyone on this board hates the heat/humidity- we can all see it coming... and you seem to just like throwing it in their face.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 15, 2022 15:21:33 GMT -6
I'm highly considering deleting my account and just lurking or taking a 5 month vacation until 12/15/2022 by logging out (I don't remember my password, so to get back in I'd have to reset it assuming my browser doesn't remember it). This would achieve a few things. One people won't have to see anymore of my annoying extreme posts that throws off the public trust in the forum at least for awhile, 2 I won't be tempted to post nonsense as I'll have to go through some leg work to do it and I have other places I can go, and 3 it could prevent any future outbursts between me and other members that actually want to try and make something of this group with more reliable content. I'll make my decision later tonight, assuming it isn't made for me by a mod or admin.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 15, 2022 15:22:34 GMT -6
I am not suggesting you do that.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 15, 2022 15:50:44 GMT -6
lol omg. We need weather. Drama.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 15, 2022 19:09:51 GMT -6
So it’s going to rain that’s cool
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Post by dschreib on Jul 15, 2022 22:47:15 GMT -6
Glen Frey and the '85 Cardinals love this weather.
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