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Post by weatherj on Jul 17, 2022 7:05:04 GMT -6
It looks like Chris's concern about the southwest counties was validated, unfortunately.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 17, 2022 7:05:19 GMT -6
GEFS, EPS, and GEPS have that look again. If these models are correct we have several more 100+ days in our future. I'm not convinced that 103F is going to be the highest of the year either.
Southwest Missouri looks especially brutal. Springfield and especially Joplin could easily have double digit consecutive 100+ days in the near future. It doesn't look like 1954 will be challenged down there just yet; and while it is unlikely I wouldn't totally eliminate that possibility either.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 17, 2022 7:44:45 GMT -6
The location of origination looks like it panned out, but the axis seems to have moved W-E instead of WNW-ESE like expected.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 17, 2022 7:44:52 GMT -6
yeah, I was going to say I think the hottest stretch of weather we've had yet is right around the corner. And with the very dry ground south of I70, it'll probably be a couple degrees warmer than models and climatology would say.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 17, 2022 8:27:59 GMT -6
Not much in the rain gauge this morning, looks like .15”.
SPC has highlighted the SE half of the area for a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon.
2% tornado
15% wind
5%hail
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Post by amstilost on Jul 17, 2022 8:40:17 GMT -6
I put a 'rain gauge" out last night to see which model output was closest to this rain event. I am quite sad to report what looks like less then .063". Short range models still show quite a bit of rain through this afternoon. Is that extra rain going to accompany the 'Landcane' references from 2003 that 'might' happen?
I also noticed that the radar almost looks like a dry slot from a winter scan.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 17, 2022 9:48:28 GMT -6
Finally got my little acurite station set up. Really need to upgrade to a unit that does wind. Anyways, west Belleville got .11 inches last night and I detected 2 lightning strikes at a distance of 17 miles
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Post by amstilost on Jul 17, 2022 10:46:08 GMT -6
a few raindrops trying to get the driveway wet. I look on radar to see the expanse of rain and I see another dry slot headed my way.
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Post by REB on Jul 17, 2022 10:49:02 GMT -6
.39” so far
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 17, 2022 10:50:40 GMT -6
Now im up to .33 so its better, I will take what I can get
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Post by jeepers on Jul 17, 2022 10:58:48 GMT -6
.30 in
We need a lot more.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 17, 2022 11:47:13 GMT -6
Are we still expecting another round of rain late afternoon or early evening?
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Post by amstilost on Jul 17, 2022 12:49:01 GMT -6
Just looked at Total Rainfall on wunderground, par for the course.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 17, 2022 12:50:08 GMT -6
Are we still expecting another round of rain late afternoon or early evening? I was just going to ask the same thing. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 17, 2022 13:02:45 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 17, 2022 13:04:01 GMT -6
This is hardly looking like the area wide soaker all the guidance was pointing towards.
The saying goes “never forecast rain in a drought”
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 17, 2022 13:21:05 GMT -6
Very heavy rain now in south st.peters. im up to .77 now.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 17, 2022 13:25:35 GMT -6
I have another decent shower going on but still had less than .125" in gauge.
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 17, 2022 13:26:08 GMT -6
Yeah coming down pretty good at my part of St. Pete too.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 17, 2022 13:33:09 GMT -6
north of i70 haves south have nots. Just like this winter will be like
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Post by landscaper on Jul 17, 2022 13:39:33 GMT -6
Huge swing and I miss by the models. The 1-3” metro wide is like .15”-.30” at best that stinks for sure. Unfortunately we really needed a soaking rain before the next hot spell
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 17, 2022 16:21:33 GMT -6
0.72" is the tally at the airport so far. It's better than nothing.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 17, 2022 17:19:59 GMT -6
Unless even more develops to the west and actually holds together and moves over my house I have received less than .125".
That really sucks. Was so hoping for a pond filling, grass/garden soaking event.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 17, 2022 17:31:26 GMT -6
Fortunate enough to get under a storm and end up with 3/4ths of an inch today.
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Post by REB on Jul 17, 2022 17:38:29 GMT -6
1.35” and still coming. Love it!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 17, 2022 17:48:36 GMT -6
Unless even more develops to the west and actually holds together and moves over my house I have received less than .125". That really sucks. Was so hoping for a pond filling, grass/garden soaking event. Well that’s disappointing to hear. Was hoping to get a soaker at my house while we were away. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 17, 2022 18:01:02 GMT -6
about 1.3 here all this evening with a storm or 2
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jul 17, 2022 18:06:19 GMT -6
At least 1.5" here.
The last hour has been relentless.
Looks like it may finally be finished.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 17, 2022 18:21:31 GMT -6
1.35” and still coming. Love it! I'm jealous. |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jul 17, 2022 18:24:42 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete reports .48" Looking at the next ten days, that isn't nearly enough.
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