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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jul 17, 2022 18:56:10 GMT -6
Missed the rain to the north and south this evening…….
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 17, 2022 19:16:59 GMT -6
That is some very beneficial rain across southern MO currently. Latest drought outlook had them in a moderate to severe drought.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 17, 2022 19:32:35 GMT -6
Missed the rain to the north and south this evening……. That's the case here mostly too. However, I picked up 3.23" between last night and midday so I have absolutely zero room to complain. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jul 17, 2022 19:35:29 GMT -6
Missed the rain to the north and south this evening……. That's the case here mostly too. However, I picked up 3.23" between last night and midday so I have absolutely zero room to complain. We are out at the lake and I had right at an inch in the gauge this afternoon but I can’t swear if I emptied it out after last weekends rain lol |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 17, 2022 20:05:53 GMT -6
.73 in West Belleville as collected by my Acu-rite
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Post by weatherj on Jul 18, 2022 6:58:42 GMT -6
I haven't been on really the last couple of weeks, but now that I read back..thank you for the birthday shout out back on the 6th reb.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 18, 2022 7:30:08 GMT -6
The reprieve from the heat is nice, but it looks like we're back to the grindstone this week with heat building back and possibly culminating in a few more 100+ degree days this weekend.
KSTL NBM V4.0 NBE GUIDANCE 7/18/2022 1000 UTC
TUE 19| WED 20| THU 21| FRI 22| SAT 23| SUN 24| MON 25|TUE CLIMO
UTC 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00
FHR 14 26| 38 50| 62 74| 86 98|110 122|134 146|158 170|182
TXN 89 72| 95 79| 97 74| 97 77|101 79|101 81|101 79| 97 69 88
XND 1 2| 2 2| 2 2| 3 2| 3 3| 3 3| 3 4| 7
TMP 86 75| 92 81| 92 76| 94 79| 95 82| 97 82| 96 81| 93
TSD 1 2| 2 2| 2 2| 3 2| 4 2| 4 3| 4 4| 6
DPT 66 68| 68 70| 64 64| 64 65| 65 67| 67 68| 67 68| 66
DSD 1 1| 2 2| 2 2| 3 2| 3 2| 4 3| 4 2| 4
SKY 7 2| 6 14| 2 1| 2 29| 23 31| 22 48| 33 40| 26
SSD 7 3| 6 14| 3 1| 4 30| 18 24| 24 30| 26 28| 27
WDR 2 17| 19 23| 31 30| 7 20| 18 21| 20 22| 27 23| 12
WSP 5 4| 8 6| 10 4| 6 5| 8 6| 9 7| 8 6| 7
WSD 1 1| 1 1| 1 1| 1 1| 1 1| 1 2| 2 2| 2
GST 5 6| 10 10| 14 6| 6 9| 10 10| 12 10| 10 9| 9
GSD 2 2| 2 3| 3 3| 2 2| 2 4| 4 4| 3 3| 3
P12 0 0| 0 2| 1 0| 0 5| 11 10| 9 15| 18 21| 23 17 18
Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
Q24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 91
DUR 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
T12 8 5| 7 18| 12 4| 15 16| 21 23| 21 22| 22 19| 14
PZR 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
PSN 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
PPL 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
PRA 100 100|100 100|100 100|100 100|100 100|100 100|100 100|100
S12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
SLV 110 110|130 140|110 100|130 130|140 140|140 140|140 130|130
I12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0
S24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0|
SOL 62 2| 68 2| 72 2| 65 2| 53 2| 64 2| 62 1| 52
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 18, 2022 7:34:01 GMT -6
It could be worse. UKMET just said there is a 95% chance they will break their all time record high.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 18, 2022 8:54:12 GMT -6
It could be worse. UKMET just said there is a 95% chance they will break their all time record high. and they don't have AC over there like we do here. Ouch |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 18, 2022 10:37:44 GMT -6
Wichita Falls, Tx looks like Hades this week.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jul 18, 2022 12:29:02 GMT -6
You've gotta love the Operational GFS out in model fantasyland. This is from the 12z at 18z on 7/31/22. That's quite a temperature gradient.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 18, 2022 13:39:52 GMT -6
HRAP 3 day precipitation total  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 18, 2022 13:41:06 GMT -6
The lack of a real Bermuda High this Summer is quite unusual. Doesn't look to change long term for the rest of Summer based on both weeklies and monthlies.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 18, 2022 13:42:43 GMT -6
Looks like it's Europe getting the most 'exciting' weather overall this Summer.
It's an AccuWX link which is blocked by the filters of the board, so just have to go to the main site directly and find it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 18, 2022 13:46:19 GMT -6
You've gotta love the Operational GFS out in model fantasyland. This is from the 12z at 18z on 7/31/22. That's quite a temperature gradient. GFS needs some serious tweaks in it's mid and especially long ranges. Just curious what Winter extended periods will show... Something stupid I'm sure. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 18, 2022 14:37:47 GMT -6
Looks like the widespread 2"+ rainfall amounts didn't hold up around the Metro. We got about 0.6" in Brighton total. Amazing how consistently storms have weakened on approach and then blown up off to the east as they approach the Wabash/Ohio valleys. It does seem like the drought conditions are starting to create a feedback loop locally. There always seems to be a minimum across Jersey Co. and the western Metro lately.
The forecast heading into the rest of the month is not looking favorable unless you enjoy searing heat and dust for some weird reason.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 18, 2022 19:26:09 GMT -6
So who noticed yet it’s starting to get darker earlier already.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 18, 2022 20:41:25 GMT -6
lol. Every. Damn. Year. Like clockwork
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 18, 2022 21:06:32 GMT -6
I heard we lost 8 min of daylight already!
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jul 18, 2022 21:12:10 GMT -6
I heard we lost 8 min of daylight already! 8 minutes closer to cooler weather! |
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Jul 18, 2022 21:20:34 GMT -6
So who noticed yet it’s starting to get darker earlier already. Only 160 days until Christmas. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 19, 2022 9:59:30 GMT -6
So who noticed yet it’s starting to get darker earlier already. Only 160 days until Christmas. 104 days till Halloween. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 19, 2022 10:44:34 GMT -6
GFS past few runs does seem to hint at the Bermuda High finally emerging with some prominence towards month's end, this should shift the hottest air back west and open up the Gulf of Mexico to our area, allowing for greater chances of at least daily pop up afternoon and evening storms chances as we close out the month and enter into August. I'd like to think the worst of Summer could be behind us after this Month, but of course with humidity up, the Heat Index will play a big roll, so it will still be oppressive at times, but the trend is for less extreme moving forward.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 19, 2022 10:56:43 GMT -6
The UK is absolutely shattering all time high temperature records today. Many places are at or over 40C(104F). Keep in mind many in the UK don’t have air conditioning.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 19, 2022 11:01:14 GMT -6
The UK is absolutely shattering all time high temperature records today. Many places are at or over 40C(104F). Keep in mind many in the UK don’t have air conditioning. Yeah, most of England shattered the previous all time high. And I mean like you could randomly pick any station in England today and have a good chance at selecting one that easily broke the previous all time record high for the entire country. And their records go back like 250 years. My guess is this is probably 1-in-1000 year event. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 19, 2022 11:04:00 GMT -6
If the heat wasn’t bad enough, wildfires are also breaking out all across the UK. The UK dosent get wildfires.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 19, 2022 11:17:28 GMT -6
I've been hearing reports that the heat damaged the runaways at an airport as well.
BTW...lesson learned yet again. 4 days ago I said I doubted the 40C forecasts from models. Time and time again I think I can outsmart NWP modeling and I get burned. In my defense I had statistics on my side. Fat lot a good that did me.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 19, 2022 12:50:13 GMT -6
Bullocks!
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 19, 2022 13:59:31 GMT -6
It looks like Friday, Saturday, and Sunday may end up being the hottest days of the heat buildup this week. A blend of the GEFS and EPS seems to suggest that Saturday has the highest odds of another 100+ day here with 850mb temperatures around 24C. For point of reference that 103F day occurred with 850mb temperatures around 23C. It doesn't look like odds are very high that we'll see meaningful rain between now and then.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 19, 2022 19:06:36 GMT -6
It looks like Friday, Saturday, and Sunday may end up being the hottest days of the heat buildup this week. A blend of the GEFS and EPS seems to suggest that Saturday has the highest odds of another 100+ day here with 850mb temperatures around 24C. For point of reference that 103F day occurred with 850mb temperatures around 23C. It doesn't look like odds are very high that we'll see meaningful rain between now and then. Looks like next week could give us a reprieve from the intense heat with hit or miss storm chances. Decent looking MCS pattern with the mean ridge backing back west and a few shortwaves rippling over the stalled frontal boundary across the region. |
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