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Post by cozpregon on Jul 19, 2022 19:29:07 GMT -6
It looks like Friday, Saturday, and Sunday may end up being the hottest days of the heat buildup this week. A blend of the GEFS and EPS seems to suggest that Saturday has the highest odds of another 100+ day here with 850mb temperatures around 24C. For point of reference that 103F day occurred with 850mb temperatures around 23C. It doesn't look like odds are very high that we'll see meaningful rain between now and then. Looks like next week could give us a reprieve from the intense heat with hit or miss storm chances. Decent looking MCS pattern with the mean ridge backing back west and a few shortwaves rippling over the stalled frontal boundary across the region. Monday chances certainly look to pick up. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 20, 2022 1:54:58 GMT -6
Man this weekend looks intense with those temps! I gotta go back to work in the hot plant after a 2 week shutdown.
Not looking forward to it...
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 20, 2022 8:14:52 GMT -6
HI is already 100.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 20, 2022 8:55:33 GMT -6
As we get set to bake..again...I thought I would drop this right here to remind everyone of the fun from the winter.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 20, 2022 9:32:11 GMT -6
Take it with a grain of salt, but an airplane out of Lambert recorded 26.3 C at 860mb this morning. That was significantly higher than the RAP analysis. It could be a biased instrument. The NBM is forecasting 98F. Now we are expected to get cold air advection at 850mb throughout the day so I'm not expecting 100F, but the question is will we get higher than the official forecast of 97F at the airport?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 20, 2022 9:48:02 GMT -6
As we get set to bake..again...I thought I would drop this right here to remind everyone of the fun from the winter. I predict a major winter storm in MO and/or IL within a week of Groundhog day, before or after. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 20, 2022 9:58:27 GMT -6
Another good one from last winter. The Canadian deciding to bury the metro in 3 feet of snow.  |
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Post by amstilost on Jul 20, 2022 10:15:38 GMT -6
Nice map Chris, thanks for thinking of us. On that map there is a max of 29" and a min of 5". Also another min of 8". I could not remember what I received 7 miles west of De Soto so I had to look on my signature line. Now you would think that I would have remembered such a depressing event. 7" of snow is usually a very good event. But with numbers like 30" being thrown around and the minimums were still 5" and 8" "I" had figured the middle road was looking likely. Then this happened on "2/2/22..........0.75" Sleet/Frz Rain Mix After .625" Rain. Oh what could have been.  Just got finished with 3 hours watering in just the fenced in area of garden. Also watered for several hours last evening. Just a tad warmish. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 20, 2022 10:52:10 GMT -6
Wasps... Wasps Everywhere! July is definitely check around the house for wasp nests and also Look for Eastern Cicada Killers mating and bringing paralyzed cicadas to their underground burrows that look like a hole with a horseshoe shaped mound of dirt in front of the entry hole. Eastern Cicada Killers are giant wasps (around 1.5 to 2" in length) that are NOT 'Murder Hornets' and are generally docile as they don't sting unless captured, caught in hair or clothing and only females can sting which despite their large intimidating stingers, only deliver venom and pain similar to that of a typical red wasp or mud dubber wasp, and they aren't super defensive of their nests as they are solitary wasps unlike red and paper wasps which are social wasps and very defensive of their nest. Wasps love when temps are in the upper 90s to 100s and they spread and breed like crazy. If you find any nests around your home especially of paper and red wasps, or hornet nests around your yard and home. Yellow Jackets, another type of wasps like to make nest in the ground, but are generally smaller then the other types of wasps and colored like miniature cicada killers, but far more aggressive.
I had two nests right outside my front door that seemingly popped up overnight and another near a window, and yet another one on my neighbor's brick fence/wall that has a damaged window and they were nesting between the 2 panes of glass, but the outer pane has a hole in it and that's how they got in. This is the 3rd year I caught them nesting there.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 20, 2022 10:54:23 GMT -6
Bag worms have also been quite numerous this year as well. Had to pluck about 300-400 off one of my evergreen bushes in the back yard and have seen some bags around on other neighbors evergreen bushes and smaller pines.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 20, 2022 10:58:18 GMT -6
Here is one of the DGEX snow bombs from 2017 showing 42".  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 20, 2022 11:01:38 GMT -6
Here is one of the DGEX snow bombs from 2017 showing 42". Ah, the DGEX oh how it was the extreme model when it came to mid term/extended snowfall forecasts. It was like the revamped GFS is with heatwaves. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 20, 2022 11:49:04 GMT -6
They need to bring the DGEX back. It’s snow bombs were legendary.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 20, 2022 12:01:46 GMT -6
WRT the DGEX model, looking back at the 16/17 season snowfall total I have 7.88" in Downtown De Soto. I will 'assume' that the model output did not verify.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 20, 2022 12:25:22 GMT -6
The DGEX won my heart with the storm that started this all...Nov 30th/Dec 1st, 2006. It was the first model to pick up that storm and show the potential.
RIP
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 20, 2022 13:06:14 GMT -6
Take it with a grain of salt, but an airplane out of Lambert recorded 26.3 C at 860mb this morning. That was significantly higher than the RAP analysis. It could be a biased instrument. The NBM is forecasting 98F. Now we are expected to get cold air advection at 850mb throughout the day so I'm not expecting 100F, but the question is will we get higher than the official forecast of 97F at the airport? Oh boy...here we go again...sigh. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 20, 2022 13:10:18 GMT -6
Well 100 looks likely it is currently 99 at lambert. Another day of over achieving
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 20, 2022 13:39:12 GMT -6
dry ground and drier air moving in for the win
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 20, 2022 14:08:38 GMT -6
We had FROPA a few hours ago but the temp only dropped a few tenths, hovering around 94-95 here. But it's not bad out in the shade with the breeze and lower humidity. This morning was pure sauna!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 20, 2022 14:37:37 GMT -6
I’m showing 102 down this way on home Thermo and 2 different vehicle thermos.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 20, 2022 14:51:07 GMT -6
IF you have an outside temperature sensor, invest in the shelter. Makes a world of difference in terms of accuracy.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 20, 2022 14:53:19 GMT -6
KFAM reporting 99* with a HI of 109*
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 20, 2022 15:09:12 GMT -6
wonder if lambert touched 100. Last 3 official obs were 99.
edit. yes they did lol
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 20, 2022 15:49:36 GMT -6
Yeah, I see a couple of 100's in the 5-min metars. I've seen some weird behavior with those reports where it might say 88 or whatever and the actual high is eventually reported as only 87. I think it has something to do with the way the site utilizes Celsius and rounding internally. But, I think it only effects certain F readings with the 100 F readings being correct. I've seen the highs come in 1-2 F higher than the 5-min reports as well. I believe that happens because the ASOS stations actually do 1-minute average observations so you can have a quick uptick that you never actually see in those reports. Anyway, we'll find out at 7pm when the official report comes out or if NWS St. Louis posts it on twitter.
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Post by ams3389 on Jul 20, 2022 16:00:47 GMT -6
So speaking of winter…with now 4 days of 100 degrees and potentially more this week… I’m sure no coloration between hot summers and upcoming winters but I do wonder how cold or potentially how snowy this winter could be. Either way it sure feels good now. Can’t wait for winter forecasts!
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 20, 2022 16:19:18 GMT -6
Latest 10-day GFS snowfall forecast. Not looking good folks...  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 20, 2022 16:24:28 GMT -6
I have noticed, along with others that where the hottest weather is in summer, is about where the coldest weather is in winter fairly often. That would put the Plains in the coldest weather, with us kind of on the eastern edge. That COULD be a good setup for winter weather around here.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 20, 2022 16:27:10 GMT -6
Latest 10-day GFS snowfall forecast. Not looking good folks... Hahahahahaha |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 20, 2022 16:49:32 GMT -6
Well only 103 Days till Halloween Weather.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 20, 2022 17:06:30 GMT -6
PAH is reporting that CGI has tied their all time record high heat index of 123.
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