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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 20, 2022 17:11:46 GMT -6
State of emergency issued by gov parson for mo due to the impending winter weather with significant accumulations of snow sleet and ice. This happened on feb 1, 2022.
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 20, 2022 17:40:01 GMT -6
I’m sure the winter season is looking more and more attractive all the time these days! We will have earned it after this hot summer! Hoping it’s a long one!
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 20, 2022 18:49:14 GMT -6
Back in the 80s and 90s... the heat waves always had haze. Forecast would be hazy, hot and humid. Don't see much haze nowadays... air seems to be much cleaner.
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Post by weatherj on Jul 20, 2022 19:14:19 GMT -6
Back in the 80s and 90s... the heat waves always had haze. Forecast would be hazy, hot and humid. Don't see much haze nowadays... air seems to be much cleaner. That one totally slipped my mind, but you are right. I remember the word hazy in the mix during the heat waves back in the day. |
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Post by amstilost on Jul 20, 2022 19:32:20 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure I do recall hearing Dave Murray always saying hazy, hot, and humid.
Had a great look at those pop-ups about an hour ago leaving the house heading East to town they really look nice now. I got on the radar and was surprised that they are all the way down to Cape.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 20, 2022 19:38:39 GMT -6
Pretty impressive rogue storm just east of Cape G, nice tall storm with lots of lightning from my pov. Wow, it’s actually got fairly strong rotation with hook now.
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Jul 20, 2022 20:46:46 GMT -6
I saw a couple of bright flashes driving down 270 south at around 9:15 tonight. Was I seeing lightning from those storms way down in southeast Missouri? Seemed to be way too far away.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 20, 2022 21:19:59 GMT -6
"heat lightning" lol. It was probably the lightning you saw. They were tall storms.
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Jul 20, 2022 22:01:50 GMT -6
"heat lightning" lol. It was probably the lightning you saw. They were tall storms. Yeah, just saw the NWS StL twitter post those storms. Wild stuff. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 21, 2022 8:03:32 GMT -6
Some model runs have been showing quite a bit of rainfall across the region next week...sure hope that holds up. We need a break from this pattern!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 21, 2022 8:07:32 GMT -6
Some model runs have been showing quite a bit of rainfall across the region next week...sure hope that holds up. We need a break from this pattern! That's been said about the past couple rain chances. Then we get squat. I would love a nice long rain. I would love a thunderstorm that makes me turn my office light on. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jul 21, 2022 8:15:48 GMT -6
My bro in law just left to return to Colo yesterday. And a day last week when it just rained and thundered off and on all day, he has missed the thunderstorms that last for hours! They don’t have that in CO! Glad we were able to give him a nice memory!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 21, 2022 8:54:56 GMT -6
Some model runs have been showing quite a bit of rainfall across the region next week...sure hope that holds up. We need a break from this pattern! After the oven this weekend it’s looking moist  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 21, 2022 9:17:32 GMT -6
Some model runs have been showing quite a bit of rainfall across the region next week...sure hope that holds up. We need a break from this pattern! That's been said about the past couple rain chances. Then we get squat. I would love a nice long rain. I would love a thunderstorm that makes me turn my office light on. Definitely been a pretty consistent pattern of duds overall from STC/WCo up into Jersey Co/MBY this summer. "The proof is in the pudding" |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 21, 2022 11:31:08 GMT -6
Please let the GFS and others be right about a stormy pattern next week. Heck, I'll take hit and miss 30% type days where you at least have a chance at a distant anvil blocking out the hellacious sun. I do not do well with prolonged heat mentally.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 21, 2022 12:35:09 GMT -6
I know 1988 was a rough summer in this area. I didn't experience all of it as I was driving through early to mid August with a rental van and all of our belongings as we were moving from California to De Soto. I remember somewhere just north of Springfield I believe on Highway 44 listening to the radio and the DJ said this is the first day we've been below 95 in however many days or something to that effect. I have tried with no luck to look up record strings of such and such days at 90 or above or at 95 or above and I have had no luck. Anyway the point I'm trying to make is the previous year to that was a pretty strong La Nina year and we were coming out of it to almost neutral I think it was .3° above normal at that point in the 3 month period of JAS.(July,August,September) Our 'Summer of Hell' in 2012 was coming off a very strong two-year La Nina and a third year slight La Nina. And now we're having this year which appears the world is having a Summer of Hell and we are in a third year La Nina. Can anyone on here find the information about 1988 to help verify this claim. I think in 2012 we all lived through that, although I was on my way to Hilton Head South Carolina around late June early July.
I know I posted on here I was able to watch the remnants of the Super Derecho that went through the Midwest and off the east coast during my stay there.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jul 21, 2022 13:30:04 GMT -6
I know 1988 was a rough summer in this area. I didn't experience all of it as I was driving through early to mid August with a rental van and all of our belongings as we were moving from California to De Soto. I remember somewhere just north of Springfield I believe on Highway 44 listening to the radio and the DJ said this is the first day we've been below 95 in however many days or something to that effect. I have tried with no luck to look up record strings of such and such days at 90 or above or at 95 or above and I have had no luck. Anyway the point I'm trying to make is the previous year to that was a pretty strong La Nina year and we were coming out of it to almost neutral I think it was .3° above normal at that point in the 3 month period of JAS.(July,August,September) Our 'Summer of Hell' in 2012 was coming off a very strong two-year La Nina and a third year slight La Nina. And now we're having this year which appears the world is having a Summer of Hell and we are in a third year La Nina. Can anyone on here find the information about 1988 to help verify this claim. I think in 2012 we all lived through that, although I was on my way to Hilton Head South Carolina around late June early July. I know I posted on here I was able to watch the remnants of the Super Derecho that went through the Midwest and off the east coast during my stay there. I remember in 88 my dad took us down to walk on the sandbars down by the JB Bridge and our dog took a liking to rolling around on the dead fish. It was a smelly ride home. I was 6. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 21, 2022 14:13:36 GMT -6
heat adv fri and sat lol
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 21, 2022 14:31:22 GMT -6
18z NAMs and HRRR hinting at some storms later tomorrow and into the overnight Friday/Saturday. We can hope.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 21, 2022 14:49:19 GMT -6
18z NAMs and HRRR hinting at some storms later tomorrow and into the overnight Friday/Saturday. We can hope. I noticed there was a weak ripple showing up on the 500mb charts and they backed off a bit with the strength of the ridge center keeping us in NW flow aloft. Might be enough to stir something up. This isn't looking like the heat wave that was advertised a few days ago but it's still going to get hot next couple days at least. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 21, 2022 15:13:57 GMT -6
Funny, someone mentioned the lack of haze now during heat waves which I agree with. It is definitely present today though!
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 21, 2022 20:59:09 GMT -6
Just need something to break the weak CIN into those lapse rates tomorrow afternoon/evening.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 21, 2022 21:07:24 GMT -6
That's an impressive sounding except for the weak mid-level wind. Big time DCAPE and steep low-level LR definitely gets your attention.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 21, 2022 22:05:47 GMT -6
I was reading some stuff someone had posted about Las Vegas overnight lows have risen 12* over a 100 years and daytime highs haven't risen at all. Time for "Search for Proof". This is all I found but is quite fascinating. 'Only' covers 70 years but it is temps from the same location it looks like. I copied and pasted the tables and also included the link I copied them from. I can only surmise that this is Urban Heat Island induced changes. If outlying 'greened' farm fields/agriculture can play a role in this feel free to add any comments or expertise. I find an 8.1* rise in overnight lows over 70 years vs. a 1.3* rise over daytime highs over the same time period rather striking. Also the Hot Days and Cold Days graphs reflect the changes in the colder days much more than the warmer. Interesting stuff. Low Temperature for Each Decade Average daily minimum temperature at Las Vegas Low°F Decade Low°C 60.3 2010s 15.7 59.0 2000s 15.0 56.4 1990s 13.5 54.9 1980s 12.7 53.3 1970s 11.9 52.7 1960s 11.5 52.2 1950s 11.2 High Temperature for Each Decade Average daily maximum temperature at Las Vegas High°F Decade High°C 81.4 2010s 27.4 80.6 2000s 27.0 79.9 1990s 26.6 79.8 1980s 26.6 79.7 1970s 26.5 79.2 1960s 26.2 80.1 1950s 26.7 Las Vegas |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jul 22, 2022 6:09:46 GMT -6
20% POPs now for my area. Hope something can pop this afternoon/evening.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 22, 2022 8:50:25 GMT -6
It would be interesting to see the average humidity trends over that span as well. Urban sprawl and development undoubtedly effects the average temp, especially nightly lows like you said. But you have to wonder what effect irrigation has as well...with the fountains and golf courses and lawns and such. Higher evapotranspiration/humidity equates to higher night time temperatures.
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Post by amstilost on Jul 22, 2022 11:34:10 GMT -6
It would be interesting to see the average humidity trends over that span as well. Urban sprawl and development undoubtedly effects the average temp, especially nightly lows like you said. But you have to wonder what effect irrigation has as well...with the fountains and golf courses and lawns and such. Higher evapotranspiration/humidity equates to higher night time temperatures. That's what I was wondering. I don't think there was much in the way of agriculture/golf course in the 50's. Just plain desert surrounding the fledgling city. It's just interesting stuff to me how the natural micro/environments have been altered by humans and the effects. I'm talking small scale stuff here but the ever growing cities/suburbs have to have unintended consequences somewhere down the line. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 22, 2022 11:49:17 GMT -6
It would be interesting to see the average humidity trends over that span as well. Urban sprawl and development undoubtedly effects the average temp, especially nightly lows like you said. But you have to wonder what effect irrigation has as well...with the fountains and golf courses and lawns and such. Higher evapotranspiration/humidity equates to higher night time temperatures. That's what I was wondering. I don't think there was much in the way of agriculture/golf course in the 50's. Just plain desert surrounding the fledgling city. It's just interesting stuff to me how the natural micro/environments have been altered by humans and the effects. I'm talking small scale stuff here but the ever growing cities/suburbs have to have unintended consequences somewhere down the line. Change in land use is a considerable factor in temperature record trends with so many recording stations in/near metropolitan areas that have been developed over the decades. I feel like that's not really accounted for well in these climate outlooks/models and I wonder how you would accurately gauge it and correct that bias. I guess a good start would be comparing remote stations with ones in developed areas and see what kind of bias is shown. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 22, 2022 11:53:52 GMT -6
Maybe the weak shortwave across SW/W MO may be enough to kick off some storms this afternoon.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 22, 2022 12:02:34 GMT -6
Looks like it's gonna favor the Ozarks for development but the HRRR was showing a few showers/storms along the river this evening. Other CAMs are solidly "meh"...
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